Is Russell in a no-win situation?

Terminal_Boy said:
I always rate Lewis, but he’s mentally talked himself out of driving this year’s Merc much like Vettel did at the start of the hybrid era.
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I'm not sure he has. There might be an element of that (if i was him i'd still feel utterly demoralised at the end of last season but i have no doubt he's a much more mentally strong person than i am!), but in terms of head to head with Russell, he's ahead in qualifying and would be ahead in races if not for safety car's always landing for Russell and against him.

Russell is supposedly pegged as possibly one of the next greats, so it doesn't surprise me that he's close to Lewis in terms of talent. Merc clearly bought Russell in as Lewis' long term replacement I think.
 
I’d like to think it’s the ultimate troll of “Bono my tyres are gone” and at some point they’ll turn up with a rocket ship :p But alas, we must have hit the point that even if he wins every remaining race and Leclerc or Verstappen come second/third then they could still win the championship. Dunno, how’s my maths? :confused:
 
I don't think they're in a position to have the car favour a particular driving style - they just need it to work. The cars themselves are fundamentally different anyway, and some drivers have adapted better than others.

You also need to consider that they might be trying different things on each car and that the cars aren't evenly setup. Nothing against George, and while I think Lewis is a great driver, he did have a significantly better car for most of the hybrid era, which skews things.
 
Scam said:
I’d like to think it’s the ultimate troll of “Bono my tyres are gone” and at some point they’ll turn up with a rocket ship :p But alas, we must have hit the point that even if he wins every remaining race and Leclerc or Verstappen come second/third then they could still win the championship. Dunno, how’s my maths? :confused:
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Not yet. Assuming the full 23 season is held (and 2 sprint races to come) in a completely impossible scenario where Russell wins the remaining races and Leclerc finishes second (including sprint races) then Russell would have 510 points and Leclerc 492, with 18 more points available for fastest lap.

For Hamilton that would be 502 points to Leclerc's 492, again not including fastest laps.

Obviously there a lot more variables, but it's a mammoth season so I think it's too early to count Mercedes out, especially if Leclerc and Verstappen keep taking points off each other. Obviously Mercedes would need to start matching them in next 4 or 5 races to have any real hope, but I'd never write off Mercedes this early in a season - there's still 80% of the season to go!

There's reliability to factor in too, and while Ferrari look strong at the moment, they've not been without issues which might come back to bite them later in the season, and obviously Red Bull have been all over the place on that front.
 
Fair enough. With regards to reliability I think there is still a chance given Ferrari.. are Ferrari. And RB have shown form already this year. (Fingers crossed).
 
It’s a tricky one to try and analyse as I’d think it’s even hard for Merc to know their ultimate real world pace once they sort out the porpoising problems. Not to mention updates that help stop porpoising may also be updates to make them faster too.

From a Russell POV, all he can do is do his best to compare well against Hamilton. Russell is doing that so far this season but it’s a long season and Hamilton is more proven in giving it all at every race. So maybe as the season drags on, and Hamilton has some better luck with SC’s, the gap will widen. On the other hand, maybe not.

I don’t think Russell is a no win situation but I do think Merc are. If they can sort the car out and get back to challenging for wins it’s going to get tricky as to who they back for the championship. With Rosberg they were safe in being dominant but don’t see them managing to get that far ahead under these regs. Maybe we see Merc winning the constructors again while Hamilton and Russell take points off each other so Max or Charles win the drivers championship.
 
this_is_gav said:
Not yet. Assuming the full 23 season is held (and 2 sprint races to come) in a completely impossible scenario where Russell wins the remaining races and Leclerc finishes second (including sprint races) then Russell would have 510 points and Leclerc 492, with 18 more points available for fastest lap.

For Hamilton that would be 502 points to Leclerc's 492, again not including fastest laps.

Obviously there a lot more variables, but it's a mammoth season so I think it's too early to count Mercedes out, especially if Leclerc and Verstappen keep taking points off each other. Obviously Mercedes would need to start matching them in next 4 or 5 races to have any real hope, but I'd never write off Mercedes this early in a season - there's still 80% of the season to go!

There's reliability to factor in too, and while Ferrari look strong at the moment, they've not been without issues which might come back to bite them later in the season, and obviously Red Bull have been all over the place on that front.
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That can't be correct. Russell is only 45 points off Leclerc, and the difference between 18 x 2nd place finishes and 18x 1st place finishes is 126 points. Russell would finish 81 points ahead (not taking into account sprint races or fastest laps).

I mean, it's a pipe dream unless Merc's Spain upgrades suddenly put them level with the RB/Ferrari, but there are still a lot of points up for grabs.
 
Yeah, I'm not sure where I messed up there. They weren't meaningful stats so I didn't double check them. Excluding fastest laps (but including sprints) Leclerc's total from second places is 442, while Russell's total from wins would be 525. I blame a lack of coffee. :D

Anyway the point remains, it's irrelevant unless Mercedes get up to speed pronto.
 
Apparently Mercedes are going to run two different cars for the next race, Lewis is going back to the 13a model that they ran in the first test (the one with side pods)
so we're not going to see a true battle between him and George
 
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