Is weather forecasting a pseudoscience?

BunnyKillBot

BunnyKillBot

BunnyKillBot

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It seems to me the only thing those weather gadgets that sit on your desktop are good for is telling you what the weather currently is at a weather station a good few miles from where you actually are (look out the window?). Beyond that, weather forecasts are about as much use as licking your finger, feeling for a breeze and declaring its going to be overcast but mostly dry.

If you took the 10 day forecast vs some dodgy geezer down the pub, i'd wager its just dumb luck weather (sic) if they actually got it right.
 
BunnyKillBot said:
It seems to me the only thing those weather gadgets that sit on your desktop are good for is telling you what the weather currently is at a weather station a good few miles from where you actually are (look out the window?). Beyond that, weather forecasts are about as much use as licking your finger, feeling for a breeze and declaring its going to be overcast but mostly dry.

If you took the 10 day forecast vs some dodgy geezer down the pub, i'd wager its just dumb luck weather (sic) if they actually got it right.
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A 10 day forecast is useless, 5 days is max after that accuracy is lost rather quickly. As for a "fake science" are you on drugs? The amount of data collected to make weather models is huge and more is needed if forecast's are to improve. So no its not a fake science.
 
elmuzzy66. said:
A 10 day forecast is useless, 5 days is max after that accuracy is lost rather quickly. As for a "fake science" are you on drugs? The amount of data collected to make weather models is huge and more is needed if forecast's are to improve. So no its not a fake science.
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It IS a fake science. For all the ponce and data, they still can't get it right. There is just too much data, too many variables, too much unknown.
 
elmuzzy66. said:
Don't confuse fake ie not real with lack of accuraccy.
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It isn't even inaccurate at the time of collation. It's that there are far too many variables and weather-interactions that we are still unaware of that cause the loss of said accuracy. Plugging into a model with an accurate alogrithm is one thing, but if you've missed out a few vital observations despite being accurate elsewhere, or if the alogrithm itslelf is off, that's when incorrect predictions are soon made. But your point stands, it's not fake, it's just still very much in its infancy.

The fact we can predict the weather 3-5 days from now with some degree of competancy when you take aboard how complex the weather system is, is a pretty inspiring achievement already.
 
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Apparently forecasting the weather in the UK is difficult due to us being surrounded by water and the gulf stream etc, not sure how true this is.
 
Just get the Formula One forecasters, they say it is going to rain in 10 minutes......it rains in 10 minutes.

But in answer to the OP, meteorology is not a pseudo-science, it is simply a science in it's infancy and requires far more research and technology before it reaches the kind of accuracy that the OP expects.
 
Nix said:
It isn't even inaccurate at the time of collation. It's that there are far too many variables and weather-interactions that we are still unaware of that cause the loss of said accuracy. Plugging into a model with an accurate alogrithm is one thing, but if you've missed out a few vital observations despite being accurate elsewhere, or if the alogrithm itslelf is off, that's when incorrect predictions are soon made. But your point stands, it's not fake, it's just still very much in its infancy.

The fact we can predict the weather 3-5 days from now with some degree of competancy when you take aboard how complex the weather system is, is a pretty inspiring achievement already.
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I know i work at a met station and sometimes we are just left gob smacked between actual weather and what the model is going for. The thing is that you only hear about when the forecast is wrong but never when its right. The variables are huge like you said, changes in wind, temps, sea temps, QNH and topography can and do affect the accuracy of forecast.
 
Any of you guys heard of weather action? That guy is amazingly accurate. Just started predicting earthquakes too, seems to get them right as well :S

As far as I'm aware, he basically looks at the current weather, looks at the sun activity, compares that to times in the past with similar conditions, and then runs his computer sim.

Much better than the met office
 
Judgeneo said:
Any of you guys heard of weather action? That guy is amazingly accurate. Just started predicting earthquakes too, seems to get them right as well :S

As far as I'm aware, he basically looks at the current weather, looks at the sun activity, compares that to times in the past with similar conditions, and then runs his computer sim.

Much better than the met office
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Does he do a dance too:p
 
I live in Hereford, which has it's own micro-climate due to all the hills/mountains that surround us. So I don't really listen to the weather. Although Sunday/Monday is supposed to be around 30c. Niiiiiice!!
 
Damn you should probably tell this to all the shipping companies, surfing schools, mountaineering clubs and mountain rescue who rely on the weather forecasts..
 
Predicting the weather is about as scientific as it gets. It's absolutely all about predictive modelling, which is pure science.

The trouble is there's a shedload of variables and the modelling is very complicated, so it's not nearly as accurate as some other sciences.
 
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