In the least arrogant way possible, I think if Liverpool want Alonso then we'll get him, if only for the simple reason that I don't think he'll want to go from Leverkusen directly to Bayern. If Leverkusen go on to win the title then his name will go down in history there but to jump ship and move to Bayern will leave a sour taste in Leverkusen fans mouths. It'll be far easier for him to move abroad and if, as some reports suggest, he sees himself managing all of Liverpool, Bayern and Real one day, history tells you that the opportunity to manage Bayern is more likely to come around (more often) than Liverpool. He could come to Liverpool and do x years and be pretty confident that the Bayern job will be available again in a fairly short window. Where as he could go to Bayern and be out of a job in 18 months and the Liverpool job is taken.
I think the biggest question will be whether Liverpool go for him though. The return of Michael Edwards and the increased responsibility he's being given means we're going to be even more analytics driven than ever before and we've always been big on that anyway. Is Alonso the man the statto's pick out as the best man for the job (I've no idea the answer to that btw) and will the lack of data around Alonso put them off? One of the things I've seen reported a number of times regarding Liverpool's transfers is that the club typically want 100+ games worth of data before committing to spending big on a player. Assuming they take a similar view when analysing a manager, it might count against Alonso.