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Lovelace to be delayed till end Q4 (in volume)

Dicehunter said:
My grandfather had a good saying "Never trust anyone whose primary purpose is to empty your pockets" no one should trust companies, Retailers etc... they will tell you the biggest load of Schlock to get you to part with your money.
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Wise advice. I have an uncle that once told me "When someone tells you something, don't just listen to what they say but ask yourself why they are saying it." definitely applies to anyone selling something!
 
Aaaaand MLID **** in the face

Debunking rumors
Fact1: All AIBs made insane profit for 2 years, overpricing every GPU they could get
F2: GPU stock level is finally at a normal level
F3: Digitimes rumor is not true. Ada production is proceeding as expected. AD102 A1 silicon is entering now HVM at TSMC
F4: From NV financial report, Russia accounted for 2% of their revenue. So it's very stupid to think that the ban in this country has any significant effect on GPU sale and any relation to a rumored Ada delay. but most important, don't believe me blindly, do your own research
-Bonus: one week before Nvidia Hopper announcement, Digitimes wrote that this new GPU was on 7nm (we all know now it's on 4N). Only one week before launch and they were totally wrong. Just to give some perspective to these leaks...
-Ampere inventory is 3~4 months of sales, nothing special in a normal pre-COVID world. And this stock was purchased by AIBs when everything was flying off the shelves, not forced by Nvidia. Let me tell you, AIBs are ******* off Nvidia, so I doubt green team will do them any favor

Source

https://twitter.com/XpeaGPU?s=20&t=nmD5n1RqMcj9MBVNTf-rjA


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Easiest way to get an idea of stock levels is to check their Q2 investor info when it comes out, certainly their Q1 inventory was higher than a year before.

From Nvidia Q1 FY23 CFO commentary,
"OEM and Other revenue was down 52% from a year ago and down 18% sequentially. The year-on-year decrease was due to a decline in Cryptocurrency Mining Processor (CMP) revenue, which was nominal in the quarter compared with $155 million from a year ago...
inventory was $3.16 billion compared with $1.99 billion a year ago and $2.61 billion a quarter ago. Outstanding inventory purchase and long-term supply obligations were $9.59 billion, up from $3.46 billion a year ago and up from $9.00 billion a quarter ago, due to longer lead-times throughout the supply chain. Prepaid supply agreements were $3.06 billion, up from $1.84 billion a quarter ago. DSI was 101 days, up from 89 days a year ago and up from 90 days a quarter ago."
 
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How much of that inventory is Lovelace and Hopper? Would it not be more appropriate to compare inventory levels with those of two years ago, shortly before the Ampere release?
 
Quartz said:
How much of that inventory is Lovelace and Hopper? Would it not be more appropriate to compare inventory levels with those of two years ago, shortly before the Ampere release?
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For all we know the inventory could be leather jackets for Jensen and co, but the financial results are at least better than pure rumour. There might be standard reporting reasons why they compare inventory with the previous year, and not 2 years before, when they release their financial statements. Interesting to see that they only sold a nominal amount of mining cards (CMP) in Q1 this year
 
Jay85 said:
Is this a case of greed backfiring?

Can't stand this guys rant tbh, his voice goes through me.
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It'll backfire at some point, but we're all betting probably not in their lifetime. Or ours, hopefully. But we're already seeing it happen. Mine! Mine! Mine! It's definitely not sustainable, is it?

 
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ASMB said:
Easiest way to get an idea of stock levels is to check their Q2 investor info when it comes out, certainly their Q1 inventory was higher than a year before.

From Nvidia Q1 FY23 CFO commentary,
"OEM and Other revenue was down 52% from a year ago and down 18% sequentially. The year-on-year decrease was due to a decline in Cryptocurrency Mining Processor (CMP) revenue, which was nominal in the quarter compared with $155 million from a year ago...
inventory was $3.16 billion compared with $1.99 billion a year ago and $2.61 billion a quarter ago. Outstanding inventory purchase and long-term supply obligations were $9.59 billion, up from $3.46 billion a year ago and up from $9.00 billion a quarter ago, due to longer lead-times throughout the supply chain. Prepaid supply agreements were $3.06 billion, up from $1.84 billion a quarter ago. DSI was 101 days, up from 89 days a year ago and up from 90 days a quarter ago."
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The inventory increase year on year is staggering. Another interesting point is that inventory increased from Q4 2021 into Q1 2022 which I think is unusal. That doesn't seem right as usually business clear out inventory during the holiday season from what I understand.
The long term supply obligations could relate to lovelace and Hopper, however a threefold increase is crazy. Either they think they are onto a banger of a card or they were expecting mining to prop up the sales of lovelace/hopper. Or it could be perfectly normal for a release year.

Quartz said:
How much of that inventory is Lovelace and Hopper? Would it not be more appropriate to compare inventory levels with those of two years ago, shortly before the Ampere release?
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I can't see them seriously stock piling GPUs due for release end of Q3/start of Q4 all the way back in Q1. I would expect them to start production in Q2 which would lead to a small rise in inventory then a serious bump come Q3.
 
Quartz said:
Not the GPUs themselves but all the paraphenalia: the boards, the heatsinks, the RAM, etc.
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I get your point and after Covid maybe Nvidia has moved away from J.I.T manufacturing. But even then, that's really early and it is a lot of money to have gathering dust in the warehouse.
 
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Darujhistan said:
Roughly translated: Can't sell remaining inventory.
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...for the prices and margins they want through the channel.

They could clear out the inventory in a few weeks for the right price.

Joke of it is they will pay for this inventory to be stored costing them money ahead of lowering price and passing that value write down to gamers they tried to rob blind over the past 18months.

All of this is nonsense is there to charge you more nextgen that's how disgusting it is and why 'the market is broken', and Nvidia just try to force the problem down the line.
 
BigBANGtheory said:
...for the prices and margins they want through the channel.

They could clear out the inventory in a few weeks for the right price.

Joke of it is they will pay for this inventory to be stored costing them money ahead of lowering price and passing that value write down to gamers they tried to rob blind over the past 18months.

All of this is nonsense is there to charge you more nextgen that's how disgusting it is and why 'the market is broken', and Nvidia just try to force the problem down the line.
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Correct, this is proven by the fact that 2 year old cards cost more now than they should have done at launch.
 
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