Associate
well, matched betting will still be viable for you until you run out of accounts to use...
Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)
- Thread starter knowlton
- Start date
I've not bothered with any mug bets and still have my main big accounts open. I tend to stick to football, and then only PL and Championship games. Horse racing offers I only hit during a big event. I don't make as much as some people but it's kept my accounts going for consistent returns.
The logic behind it makes sense to some extent but you'd probably need some actual data from people with multiple accounts to form a view on that and it probably varies over time with regards to how aggressive particular bookies are at gubbing accounts - I'm several years out of date on this so don't have an opinion either way on mug betting - it completely depends on the current behaviour of the bookies and whether it can demonstrably lead to a lower chance of getting gubbed and/or more offers to take advantage of.
I mean it is perfectly plausible for a genuine punter to take advantage of an offer then leave an account dormant and a bookie to want to target them (and other like them) with an offer later on.
Also regardless of whether you throw in a mug bet you're still going to be in a situation where you're generally overall net positive at the bookies, real punters are generally overall net negative.
I think there is something to be said about not just avoiding arbs but also being a bit loose with the QL, if you're getting really close matches that everyone with some matched betting tool has seen then that's where I'd have an opinion that it is probably better to avoid - giving up some edge in favour of trying to avoid a ban.
Long term, if you want to make money from these offers then you can't really avoid being a net winner at the bookies in general, I mean sometimes people get caught up in fallacies and treat the matched bets as something magical, don't appreciate that the exchange side is just a hedge to reduce variance and costs you money in the long run so you get people sometimes claiming that they try to lose money at the bookies etc... so as to win at the exchange - if someone could do that then why bother with the bookies in the first place etc..
Associate
because you are 'hedging' against bookies free bets. Free bets that exchanges don't give out.
I think you’ve missed the point, if you could win at the exchange you wouldn’t need the free bets - do you not see why?
Associate
No I didnt miss the point at all, but do carry on.
I'm not really sure what you're saying then? Are you disagreeing with what I posted - if so what exactly are you disagreeing with and why? At the moment it doesn't seem like you understood the point being made.
Yep, it is easily observed by anyone with a large sample of bets.
That’s the thing with gambling/probability people fall into fallacies very easily.
Another one was the online casino/roulette offers back in the day - some people would advocate increasing bet sizes when they decided they were on a “winning streak” etc... completely ignoring that the bets are independent and the value just comes from the promotional offer. If there were winning streaks they could identify and increase their betting size to take advantage of then they’d not need to worry about offers in the first place... just as people who think they can just win at the exchange don’t actually need the bookies if that were true.
Yup. That’s just how it works - the money comes from the offers at the bookies and yes people do get their accounts banned for matches betting.
Over time you’ll lose money at the exchange. If you can win money at the exchange then you’d not need matched betting in the first place and could just carry on doing more of whatever +ev betting strategy you found at the exchange.
Yes and an occasional £1000 offer too. It ties up money for a while but they genuinely do refund as long as you email them in time. I have only really benefited on one occasion. I know bugger all about football but i try to spot the market trends and pick sensibly, dump it all on one player and hope for the best.
I have done the offer 4 times now with varying amounts, but only one time has been worth it for me
I hardly put any effort into it anymore and only tend to do football betting apart from the big racing meets. I pick up the easy free bets and 2up/GG/Bet365 etc. I get the bets on then have the Smarkets app on my phone if I need to cash out. With this minimal effort I've made about £150 to £200 a month this year. Not a huge return compared to some people but I really spend very little time on it nowadays.
That depends on you and what your time is worth tbh.. if you're a student doing something easy/plenty of free time then you can start with very little and it might be worth spending time grinding away at various offers - easy money compared with a bar shift at the students union or shelf stacking in the local Tesco etc..
If you're in full time employment and earning a decent wage then you might only bother with the low hanging fruit in the form of some of the generous sign up offers and a few of the ongoing ones.