Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

cadmunkey · 9 Oct 2019 at 13:52

mk123 said:
true I've been trying not to arb too much as obviously is my biggest threat of being gubbed. What are your views on deliberately placing mug bets to try and help? obviously it is not ideal to lose money that way but if keeps accounts open longer-term worth it?

I dont think even mug bets help, bookies claim that sports betting is a tiny proportion of their overall income nowadays so they have no incentive to keep winning accounts open. They make a mint from casino stuff, so if anything it would make more sense to throw a few quid on slots or something to keep them happy. No proof that any of that works though. There are various articles online that give you hints on how to keep accounts open but the truth is bookies are gubbing folk after one successful bet these days.

mk123 · 9 Oct 2019 at 14:40

so from what you're saying do you think people are going to slowly move away from matched betting with the bookie clampdown

cadmunkey · 9 Oct 2019 at 14:53

mk123 said:
so from what you're saying do you think people are going to slowly move away from matched betting with the bookie clampdown

well, matched betting will still be viable for you until you run out of accounts to use...

Street · 9 Oct 2019 at 15:04

I've not bothered with any mug bets and still have my main big accounts open. I tend to stick to football, and then only PL and Championship games. Horse racing offers I only hit during a big event. I don't make as much as some people but it's kept my accounts going for consistent returns.

mk123 · 9 Oct 2019 at 16:05

that makes sense, i saw a post about betconnect being better in that respect as it focuses on more 'mainstream' markets but it doesnt change the fact that you are risking your accounts being gubbed by hitting potential arbs?

topgun06 · 9 Oct 2019 at 16:18

Been doing this since April and have had decent success. But just recently, profit seems to have become harder and harder to come by. I can't quite understand how some people report £1k profits a month :eek:

dowie · 9 Oct 2019 at 16:59

mk123 said:
true ive been trying not to arb too much as obviously is my biggest threat of being gubbed. What are your views on deliberately placing mug bets to try and help? obviously it is not ideal to lose money that way but if keeps accounts open longer term worth it?

The logic behind it makes sense to some extent but you'd probably need some actual data from people with multiple accounts to form a view on that and it probably varies over time with regards to how aggressive particular bookies are at gubbing accounts - I'm several years out of date on this so don't have an opinion either way on mug betting - it completely depends on the current behaviour of the bookies and whether it can demonstrably lead to a lower chance of getting gubbed and/or more offers to take advantage of.

I mean it is perfectly plausible for a genuine punter to take advantage of an offer then leave an account dormant and a bookie to want to target them (and other like them) with an offer later on.

Also regardless of whether you throw in a mug bet you're still going to be in a situation where you're generally overall net positive at the bookies, real punters are generally overall net negative.

I think there is something to be said about not just avoiding arbs but also being a bit loose with the QL, if you're getting really close matches that everyone with some matched betting tool has seen then that's where I'd have an opinion that it is probably better to avoid - giving up some edge in favour of trying to avoid a ban.

Long term, if you want to make money from these offers then you can't really avoid being a net winner at the bookies in general, I mean sometimes people get caught up in fallacies and treat the matched bets as something magical, don't appreciate that the exchange side is just a hedge to reduce variance and costs you money in the long run so you get people sometimes claiming that they try to lose money at the bookies etc... so as to win at the exchange - if someone could do that then why bother with the bookies in the first place etc..

cadmunkey · 10 Oct 2019 at 11:59

dowie said:
I mean sometimes people get caught up in fallacies and treat the matched bets as something magical, don't appreciate that the exchange side is just a hedge to reduce variance and costs you money in the long run so you get people sometimes claiming that they try to lose money at the bookies etc... so as to win at the exchange - if someone could do that then why bother with the bookies in the first place etc..

because you are 'hedging' against bookies free bets. Free bets that exchanges don't give out.

dowie · 10 Oct 2019 at 12:08

cadmunkey said:
because you are 'hedging' against bookies free bets. Free bets that exchanges don't give out.

I think you’ve missed the point, if you could win at the exchange you wouldn’t need the free bets - do you not see why?

cadmunkey · 10 Oct 2019 at 14:03

dowie said:
I think you’ve missed the point, if you could win at the exchange you wouldn’t need the free bets - do you not see why?

No I didnt miss the point at all, but do carry on.

dowie · 10 Oct 2019 at 14:05

cadmunkey said:
No I didnt miss the point at all, but do carry on.

I'm not really sure what you're saying then? Are you disagreeing with what I posted - if so what exactly are you disagreeing with and why? At the moment it doesn't seem like you understood the point being made.

Simon · 10 Oct 2019 at 15:26

My smarkets is -5500 in 6months and so the money is going to the bookies. Those annoying 10/1 horses that win never help or correct football scores on freebets

dowie · 10 Oct 2019 at 16:10

Simon said:
My smarkets is -5500 in 6months and so the money is going to the bookies. Those annoying 10/1 horses that win never help or correct football scores on freebets

Yep, it is easily observed by anyone with a large sample of bets.

That’s the thing with gambling/probability people fall into fallacies very easily.

Another one was the online casino/roulette offers back in the day - some people would advocate increasing bet sizes when they decided they were on a “winning streak” etc... completely ignoring that the bets are independent and the value just comes from the promotional offer. If there were winning streaks they could identify and increase their betting size to take advantage of then they’d not need to worry about offers in the first place... just as people who think they can just win at the exchange don’t actually need the bookies if that were true.

pwayman · 14 Oct 2019 at 14:16

i guess the issue is that if you keep losing at the exchange and winning at the bookies you are more likely to get your accounts banned at the bookies no?

doodah · 14 Oct 2019 at 14:37

Any one dabbled in the Football Index £500 sign up offer?

pwayman · 14 Oct 2019 at 14:45

Football index seems quite stressful to me - need to be so on top of it. Would be interested if people had a more informed opinion than me though

dowie · 14 Oct 2019 at 15:26

pwayman said:
i guess the issue is that if you keep losing at the exchange and winning at the bookies you are more likely to get your accounts banned at the bookies no?

Yup. That’s just how it works - the money comes from the offers at the bookies and yes people do get their accounts banned for matches betting.

Over time you’ll lose money at the exchange. If you can win money at the exchange then you’d not need matched betting in the first place and could just carry on doing more of whatever +ev betting strategy you found at the exchange.

Gtiracer · 15 Oct 2019 at 15:04

doodah said:
Any one dabbled in the Football Index £500 sign up offer?

Yes and an occasional £1000 offer too. It ties up money for a while but they genuinely do refund as long as you email them in time. I have only really benefited on one occasion. I know bugger all about football but i try to spot the market trends and pick sensibly, dump it all on one player and hope for the best.

I have done the offer 4 times now with varying amounts, but only one time has been worth it for me

pwayman · 16 Oct 2019 at 13:46

how much time do you have to invest to make it worth it do you reckon?

Street · 16 Oct 2019 at 16:33

pwayman said:
how much time do you have to invest to make it worth it do you reckon?

I hardly put any effort into it anymore and only tend to do football betting apart from the big racing meets. I pick up the easy free bets and 2up/GG/Bet365 etc. I get the bets on then have the Smarkets app on my phone if I need to cash out. With this minimal effort I've made about £150 to £200 a month this year. Not a huge return compared to some people but I really spend very little time on it nowadays.