Bottas could at least qualify really well.
Mercedes 2024 Chances
- Thread starter ristac
- Start date
Bottas could at least qualify really well.
Caporegime
I think people expecting a third season of RB domination are likely to be off the mark. Multi-season domination is rare in F1. Max may well win again, but the chances of it being another walk over are slim.
Whether its Merc, McLaren, Ferrari, or Aston who are challenging them, I really have no idea. But Merc are the best set up of those teams so I think they have the best chance.
Soldato
Depends what you consider dominance. I don't think RB will be as far ahead as last season but we've just had 2 seasons of RB, 8 years of Merc and 4 years of RB before that.
I'd say a team dominating for multiple seasons has unfortunately become a norm.
I'd say a team dominating for multiple seasons has unfortunately become a norm.
Caporegime
Just because we see the same winner for consecutive years doesn't make it a domination. Max might have won the last three, but there's no way that 2021 was a domination.
During Seb's run RB were only dominant in '11 and '13. In 2010, Vettel won by just 4 pts and went into the final race behind on points to Alonso. In 2012, he won by just 3 points (again over Alonso). Merc did dominate from 2014 to 2016, but in 2017 it took until race 13 before Hamilton overhauled Seb. 2018 was stronger for Merc, but Seb still won the first two races. I wouldn't describe either as dominations.
Not expecting Mercedes to be fighting for wins from the get go. If they are changing design philosophy, moving driver position, I think with that will be new suspension approach as well. That's a lot to learn and understand and tune to get speed out of.
I'm hopeful McLaren can fight red bull. They have fast drivers and their own gearbox which I read last year is a problem for Mercedes and their customers because I think it's homologated now so can't be changed. It's basically packaged in a way that limits how much downforce they can create from the underfloor.
Ferrari... They just never seem to be able to put it all together.
I'm hopeful McLaren can fight red bull. They have fast drivers and their own gearbox which I read last year is a problem for Mercedes and their customers because I think it's homologated now so can't be changed. It's basically packaged in a way that limits how much downforce they can create from the underfloor.
Ferrari... They just never seem to be able to put it all together.
Soldato
As I said it depends how you look at it. I'm looking at it from teams point of view and other than couple of seasons in last 14 years the constructor champions have been won easily. To me consistently finishing in top spots, even if they're not necessarily wins, is dominance.
I'm basing it largely off the gap RB showed over the rest of the field at the end of the season, and it was pretty dominant.
During the Merc era for example often other teams, usually RB, got pretty close by the end of the year. Only for next years Merc to come out and open the gap up again.
RB ended the year with a ~20s advantage over a race distance and have been working on their next car for plenty of time to refine it. I'd love for that to be wrong and Merc/Ferrari/McLaren to be right up there but I just don't see it happening.
I've seen a few articles popup on FB where fairly well-respected commentators are expecting Hamilton to be fighting properly this year. I can't remember who though as I try not to pay much attention, but I remember Button was one; https://www.crash.net/f1/news/10431...even-better-now-claim-amid-f1-2024-prediction
It's all conjecture of course, but sometimes these predictions can be exactly what people on the "inside" say in the rags all along. Wishful thinking I'm sure
It's all conjecture of course, but sometimes these predictions can be exactly what people on the "inside" say in the rags all along. Wishful thinking I'm sure
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Soldato
Chances of a Merc finishing season in top 2 in '24? Slim to no chance IMO, unless Perez is given his P45 ~50%+ through the season.
Depends really. I mean if the Merc can get even just a bit closer to the RB, Hamilton's talent could well mean he leapfrogs Perez into 2nd. Also, whilst he had a bit of a bad season last year, i think Russell is a decent bit better than Perez as well so he could beat him in the standings if the cars were a bit closer.
I mean, Hamilton was close at coming 2nd overall last year, even though the Merc was arguably only the third or fourth fastest car overall (depending on the track/which part of the season).
The Mercedes car will absolutely have to be on a par with the RB for them to stand a chance of getting 1st. Max is obviously very good, so any amount of driving talent isn't going to make up for a car performance deficit.
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Caporegime
Pérez didn't manage 2nd in 2022 when Max won 15 of 22 races. Checo needs a truly prodigious car advantage to stay ahead of the more talented drivers in worse cars. It may, or may not, be Merc who bring the second best car this year, but I'm pretty sure that it won't be Sergio in 2nd place in the WDC.
Associate
I would expect similair to last year, just the gap closed a bit
Soldato
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I can’t see Merc or any of the other teams challenging RBR in 2024, unfortunately. They are absolutely on the money - the entire package from the car performance to the driver, from the strategy to the reliability.
Only way I can see any team getting close is if Max quits or something comes out about the RBR car in relation to the regs that causes the FIA to “investigate” and the RBR car becomes much slower in subsequent races as a consequence!
But I do agree with others, Max has only really had 1 season as a WDC contender where he was properly challenged. That’s not to denigrate Max, despite my reservations about his character, he is still an outstanding driver. But when he is under pressure he becomes rash and makes mistakes, and I’m genuinely not sure how he would cope fighting for a WDC against a properly competitive rival team as well as having to fend off a properly competitive team mate.
His past behaviours lead me to suspect he might struggle a bit, but that’s just me.
Only way I can see any team getting close is if Max quits or something comes out about the RBR car in relation to the regs that causes the FIA to “investigate” and the RBR car becomes much slower in subsequent races as a consequence!
But I do agree with others, Max has only really had 1 season as a WDC contender where he was properly challenged. That’s not to denigrate Max, despite my reservations about his character, he is still an outstanding driver. But when he is under pressure he becomes rash and makes mistakes, and I’m genuinely not sure how he would cope fighting for a WDC against a properly competitive rival team as well as having to fend off a properly competitive team mate.
His past behaviours lead me to suspect he might struggle a bit, but that’s just me.
Man of Honour
I think in the past Max has been guilty of over-driving, etc especially when challenging for the first title in 2021; but it seems to me that having won that title has given him more confidence and made him a better driver; he's obviously been helped by being at the front mainly but he's had a few races coming from mid-pack or the rear after penalties, etc and seems to have had few issues with contact, etc.
I think the driver most likely to get rash and burn is Russell of all of the supposed "front running" drivers
Commissario
George has changed over the last year. As far as I’m concerned he’s gone from being a decent chap to quite unlikeable. I can’t put my finger exactly on why.
Man of Honour
Totally agree with you; frankly I'm finding him to be pretty arrogant for a guy that's not done very much
Coming through the mid-pack is rather easy when 100% of those drivers are told not to fight him, even those in the running for P2 with an outside chance of winning a race even *cough* Norris *cough*
I think he got a little big-headed when he joined Merc which is understandable. Especially when he was beating Lewis a bit in 2022. But he seems to be going through a harder period now that Lewis is getting into the groove a bit more and fine-tuning his car (rather than testing setups every other week). I think George was probably lulled into thinking he was in the same league as Lewis and it was only a matter of time until he started beating him... But now it's just not happening and he's getting frustrated. To be fair to him, it would also royally suck signing for 2020-era Mercedes.. and ending up in 2022-era Mercedes!
Soldato
Having a challenging team mate and/or opposition tends to show different sides to F1 drivers, that aren't shown when things are relatively easy. 
Soldato
Coming through the mid-pack is rather easy when 100% of those drivers are told not to fight him, even those in the running for P2 with an outside chance of winning a race even *cough* Norris *cough*
I think he got a little big-headed when he joined Merc which is understandable. Especially when he was beating Lewis a bit in 2022. But he seems to be going through a harder period now that Lewis is getting into the groove a bit more and fine-tuning his car (rather than testing setups every other week). I think George was probably lulled into thinking he was in the same league as Lewis and it was only a matter of time until he started beating him... But now it's just not happening and he's getting frustrated. To be fair to him, it would also royally suck signing for 2020-era Mercedes.. and ending up in 2022-era Mercedes!
Just like Lewis in Brazil 21, especially sprint, until he got to Checo everyone was moving out of his way. Lando and iirc several other drivers were on record saying they don't want to interfere with the title race.
Lando Norris reveals why he will not hold up Lewis Hamilton’s Brazilian GP charge
The McLaren driver will be in Hamilton’s sights as he tries to move his way through the field in Sao Paulo
www.independent.co.uk
I still like George but he's deffo not as likeable as he was.
Yep. He gives off the impression that he already considers himself one of the greats, when (as you say) he hasn't achieved much yet.
I don't doubt his talent. He's certainly up there with the other top younger drivers. However his attitude is writing cheques that his results/achievements can't cash at the moment.
You could see how mentally difficult it was for him to cope with his poor season and Lewis wiping the floor with him results wise last season.
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