Mid-Week Brain Teaser

Let's try a PDF from Yale, if anyone fancies a bit of light reading:
http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/~gean/art/p0882.pdf

You're looking for section 2 "Puzzles about reasoning based on the reasoning of others", starting on page 3 of the PDF.

Quoting briefly:



Knock yourselves out.

I'd like to see the 'Princeton Example' Bloomfield referred to because it seems to me that this version just doesn't work properly and I'm convinced at the moment it's a rehash of a working puzzle that makes more sense.

That's the one I was referring to. It's basically the same situation as there being no red hats (in the OPs question), which we already know isn't solvable without the hint.
 
"I can see 6 (or 7 if they have a black hat, it doesn't matter) red hats, but what would have happened at this stage of the process if I could only see 5 redhats, which begs the question what would have happened if I could only see 4 red hats, ...3 red hats...2 red hats...1 red hat." Once you are asking what would have happened in the scenario had there been 1 red hat, in the first problem, you cannot answer the question.

But how does thinking about what would happen if you could only see 1 red hat matter when you can see 6, and you know that everyone else can see atleast 5?
 
But how does thinking about what would happen if you could only see 1 red hat matter when you can see 6, and you know that everyone else can see atleast 5?

You use recursion to figure out what people should be thinking, therefore what comes at the start of that recursion is important. It's a bit of a brainfart because you're essentially making up a scenario to prove your current one, but when you do it you realise the math works, where it wouldn't if you assumed they didn't know.
 
This is exactly right.

Let's rephrase the problem: Each child must determine how many red hats there are.

Now this is actually the same question as "what colour is my hat". This is because, as soon as I work out my own hat colour, I can see everybody else's, so I can deduce the total number of red hats.

When going through the logical process of determining the number of red hats, each person is really having to think to themselves, "I can see 6 (or 7 if they have a black hat, it doesn't matter) red hats, but what would have happened at this stage of the process if I could only see 5 redhats, which begs the question what would have happened if I could only see 4 red hats, ...3 red hats...2 red hats...1 red hat." Once you are asking what would have happened in the scenario had there been 1 red hat, in the first problem, you cannot answer the question. But in the second problem, you are told there is at least 1 red hat, so if you can't see someone else wearing it, it must be you!

This is where the extra information comes in to play. As aln said, it starts the recursion process. It may add nothing to what you see, but it does add something to the "what if" scenarios that you have to ask yourself.

So let me get this right. Unless there is only 1 red hat then it works for both classes?

Otherwise, to take the actual OP. There are 7 red hats. When you see that 6 red hatted "I don't know" kids have gone and you can't see any more, you know that you are a red too otherwise the 6th red hatted kid to go would not have said "I don't know".
 
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You use recursion to figure out what people should be thinking, therefore what comes at the start of that recursion is important. It's a bit of a brainfart because you're essentially making up a scenario to prove your current one, but when you do it you realise the math works, where it wouldn't if you assumed they didn't know.

This is exactly right.

Let's rephrase the problem: Each child must determine how many red hats there are.

Now this is actually the same question as "what colour is my hat". This is because, as soon as I work out my own hat colour, I can see everybody else's, so I can deduce the total number of red hats.

When going through the logical process of determining the number of red hats, each person is really having to think to themselves, "I can see 6 (or 7 if they have a black hat, it doesn't matter) red hats, but what would have happened at this stage of the process if I could only see 5 redhats, which begs the question what would have happened if I could only see 4 red hats, ...3 red hats...2 red hats...1 red hat." Once you are asking what would have happened in the scenario had there been 1 red hat, in the first problem, you cannot answer the question. But in the second problem, you are told there is at least 1 red hat, so if you can't see someone else wearing it, it must be you!

This is where the extra information comes in to play. As aln said, it starts the recursion process. It may add nothing to what you see, but it does add something to the "what if" scenarios that you have to ask yourself.

It doesn't work though in the reality of the OP's example. No new information has been introduced in the second example. Everyone single child knows there is "at least one red hat" in both scenarios because of all them can see it before the game starts.

The flaw in the logic with the way this specific puzzle works with your/Psiko's explanation method is that you are working it out from 1 up (what would happen if only 1 red hat existed, then what if it was 2, then what if it was 3 etc) - which works that way, but then assuming that logic works backwards if you start with any number of red hats.

It doesn't, at least not in the set up of the OP's question.
 
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So let me get this right. Unless there is only 1 red hat then it works for both classes?

The problem is you can't start the recursion if you assume the kids may be thinking they have 0 red hats.

With several on the table you can assume there will always be one and work from there, without the teacher needing to say anything, but if you start the recursion based on exactly what the teacher says, 0 being a possible value screws you over. If you take what the teacher says as a literal rule, you cannot solve it.

In reality, you probably could solve it assuming everyone else in the room knew to assume there was always 1. Then again in reality even if you knew the theory, you couldn't rely on anyone else knowing it, so it wouldn't work anyway. :p
 
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It doesn't work though in the reality of the OP's example. No new information has been introduced in the second example. Everyone single child knows there is "at least one red hat" in both scenarios because of all them can see it before the game starts.
Will you please stop saying this. Read the PDF I posted, it is exactly the information you need to understand what's happening.
 
It doesn't work though in the reality of the OP's example. No new information has been introduced in the second example. Everyone single child knows there is "at least one red hat" in both scenarios because of all them can see it before the game starts.

The flaw in the logic with the way this specific puzzle works with your/Psiko's explanation method is that you are working it out from 1 up (what would happen if only 1 red hat existed, then what if it was 2, then what if it was 3 etc) - which works that way, but then assuming that logic works backwards if you start with any number of red hats.

It doesn't, at least not in the set up of the OP's question.

This is what I am trying to get at. In certain cases this work perfectly. The OP just seems to have picked one that doesn't or has worded it in a way that allows loopholes
 
But how does thinking about what would happen if you could only see 1 red hat matter when you can see 6, and you know that everyone else can see atleast 5?

Let' assume the following:
1) I have a red hat (but I don't know that)
2) I can see six red hats
3) Six red hats have already said "I don't know"

There are two possibilities (from my POV):
1) I have a red hat so there are 7 red hats in total and I say "I have a red hat" and everyone's happy
2) I have a black hat and there are 6 red hats in total so I say "I don't know"

To prove 1 we must disprove 2. So I need to ask the question: what would the last guy with a red hat have said if:
1) He has a red hat (but doesn't know it)
2) He can see 5 red hats
3) 5 red hats have already said "I don't know"

If the answer is he would have said "I have a red hat", then we know possibility 2) is not possible, because assumption 3) above was that he didn't say "I have a red hate" (i.e proof by contradiction).

You see, we are now asking exactly the same questions as above but with 1 less hat. This is why we need to look at all the scenarios down to 1 red hat.
 
Will you please stop saying this. Read the PDF I posted, it is exactly the information you need to understand what's happening.

The only children that really matter are the last and second last, right.


In the first class. Every child knows that there are 6/7 red hats depending on their own colour.

All children say "I don't know" based on seeing at least 1 red still remaining including the second last.

The last kid then comes along and says. I have no idea how many reds there are total but the kid before me said "I don't know" so he must have seen a red somewhere. Because I don't see any red, I therefore must be a red.

Please explain how that reasoning is incorrect for the situation given.
 
The only children that really matter are the last and second last, right.

In the first class. Every child knows that there are 6/7 red hats depending on their own colour.

All children say "I don't know" based on seeing at least 1 red still remaining including the second last.

The last kid then comes along and says. I have no idea how many reds there are total but the kid before me said "I don't know" so he must have seen a red somewhere. Because I don't see any red, I therefore must be a red.

Please explain how that reasoning is incorrect for the situation given.
What makes the statement I've highlighted true? Logical, reasoned explanation is needed.
 
The only children that really matter are the last and second last, right.


In the first class. Every child knows that there are 6/7 red hats depending on their own colour.

All children say "I don't know" based on seeing at least 1 red still remaining including the second last.

The last kid then comes along and says. I have no idea how many reds there are total but the kid before me said "I don't know" so he must have seen a red somewhere. Because I don't see any red, I therefore must be a red.

Please explain how that reasoning is incorrect for the situation given.

I thought that at first too, it's wrong. The spoiler is how I worked that out. Every kid needs to be thinking about what the kid before him was thinking for this to work.

For 2 hats
=======
If theres 2 red hats, when #1 looks around and sees another red hat, he doesn't know if theres 1 or 2 hats so he can't say.
#2 red knows #1 red saw another red, can't see any more reds, so assumes it's himself.

For 3
=======
#1 red sees 2 red, but doesn't know if theres 2 or 3.
#2 red sees 2 red, knows theres at least 2 and accepts that #3 might be what #1 say to say "I don't know".
#3 sees 2. Knows that #1 sees at least 1 but #2 didn't solve it because he must see 2 and since #3 can only see 2, he's the 3rd.

For 4
====
#1 red sees 3 red, but doesn't know if theres 3 or 4.
#2 red sees 3 red, knows theres 3 or 4 but can only know #1 sees at least up to 2.
#3 red sees 3, he knows theres either 3 or 4, but only knows #1 can see 2 and #2 can see 2 but not whether either of them can see 3, so doesn't guess.
#4 can see 3. He knows that if there was 3 hats, #3 should have been able to guess he was red, so there must be another red and that'll have to be him.

You can follow this all the way up to 7, but it'd be a waste of time. You won't get it until you do the same in the spoiler while assuming there can be 0 hats in the kids answers.
 
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Will you please stop saying this. Read the PDF I posted, it is exactly the information you need to understand what's happening.

Why should I stop saying something that is factually correct. The PDF poses a different scenario and it this specific one that we are looking at.

Please see post 172 where I point out the flaw with your explanation.


Let' assume the following:
1) I have a red hat (but I don't know that)
2) I can see six red hats
3) Six red hats have already said "I don't know"

There are two possibilities (from my POV):
1) I have a red hat so there are 7 red hats in total and I say "I have a red hat" and everyone's happy
2) I have a black hat and there are 6 red hats in total so I say "I don't know"

To prove 1 we must disprove 2. So I need to ask the question: what would the last guy with a red hat have said if:
1) He has a red hat (but doesn't know it)
2) He can see 5 red hats
3) 5 red hats have already said "I don't know"

If the answer is he would have said "I have a red hat", then we know possibility 2) is not possible, because assumption 3) above was that he didn't say "I have a red hate" (i.e proof by contradiction).

You see, we are now asking exactly the same questions as above but with 1 less hat. This is why we need to look at all the scenarios down to 1 red hat.

But when you get to 1 hat it only works if you are assuming a random number of hats can exist and everyone that follows has no idea about what the previous person saw until you get their answer, that is untrue.

Every single child knows that the person before them saw at least 1 unchecked hat wearer left and at most 6 unchecked left hat wearers. Only if there was only one hat could you ever get to the point where someone knows there are 0 unchecked hats in play, this can't happen under the OP's scenario.

I thought that at first too, it's wrong. The spoiler is how I worked that out. Every kid needs to be thinking about what the kid before him was thinking for this to work.

For 2 hats
=======
If theres 2 red hats, when #1 looks around and sees another red hat, he doesn't know if theres 1 or 2 hats so he can't say.
#2 red knows #1 red saw another red, can't see any more reds, so assumes it's himself.

For 3
=======
#1 red sees 2 red, but doesn't know if theres 2 or 3.
#2 red sees 2 red, knows theres at least 2 and accepts that #3 might be what #1 say to say "I don't know".
#3 sees 2. Knows that #1 sees at least 1 but #2 didn't solve it because he must see 2 and since #3 can only see 2, he's the 3rd.

For 4
====
#1 red sees 3 red, but doesn't know if theres 3 or 4.
#2 red sees 3 red, knows theres 3 or 4 but can only know #1 sees at least up to 2.
#3 red sees 3, he knows theres either 3 or 4, but only knows #1 can see 2 and #2 can see 2 but not whether either of them can see 3, so doesn't guess.
#4 can see 3. He knows that if there was 3 hats, #3 should have been able to guess he was red, so there must be another red and that'll have to be him.

You can follow this all the way up to 7, but it'd be a waste of time. You won't get it until you do the same in the spoiler while assuming there can be 0 hats in the kids answers.

You are working it out by changing the number of hats in the game. This doesn't work here because the every child from the first to the last knows there have to be 5 or 6.

Thinking what is there was only 1 hat in the game or 2 hats in the game is pointless because they know that isn't the case. They can only think what if there are 6 hats in the game or 7 hats in the game as it's a physical impossibility that any it can be any less.

AJK explains the method the same and you and I explain why that logic is flawed here...

http://forums.overclockers.co.uk/showpost.php?p=23713959&postcount=172
 
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That dichotomy simply can't exist under the conditions of the riddle. Person 1 cannot see all black hats and person 2 knows that even before person 1's answer thus the logic then can't be continued as you've explained because they have no new information.
But they do have new information - this is the whole point of the logical concept of common knowledge. I appreciate that this is confusing and not entirely intuitive, but the PDF I posted does explain why this works.

In reality, Person 1 sees a mixture of red and black hats so says I don't know (or doesn't speak as in your explanation). Now it's Person's 2 turn, they cannot deduce that the reason Person 1 didn't speak was because they saw a mixture of hats and that they would have said "red" if they saw all blacks because they already know person 1 can see a mixture of hats and not all blacks.
Stop right there. This is just WRONG. Person 1's reasoning remains the same regardless of what person 2 can see. Just because person 2 knows that person 1 didn't see all black hats DOES NOT CHANGE person 1's process of reasoning, and knowing what person 1's reasoning was is crucial to person 2 working out what he does or does not know.
 
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But they do have new information - this is the whole point of the logical concept of common knowledge. I appreciate that this is confusing and not entirely intuitive, but the PDF I posted does explain why this works.

Ok I've read it an maybe we should refer to this from this point forward for simplicity as it only deals with three hats so here it is for everyone else....

2cbxbq.png


Right so I get the distinction between all of the children knowing there is at least one red hat individually and them all knowing that each other also knows there is at least one red hat (the crux of what you are saying) and how the process works from there.

But I would argue that even before they are given the "common knowledge" by the teacher they can deduce this common knowledge exists for themselves. So now I'm not just saying they all individually know there is more than one red hat but that they ALSO know that the other two children must know there is at least one red hat, or rather they can deduce that common knowledge exists without being told it, it seems to me.

Why? Well let's look at each child's point of view and what they know each other knows (in other words what common knowledge they can deduce).

Child 1 individually knows that at least two hats are red. But Child 1 also knows that Child 2 knows there is at least one red hat because she knows that Child 2 can see Child 3's red hat but doesn't know what she sees when he looks at her (Child 1). This is the same for Child 1's knowledge of what Child 3 knows. So Child 1 not only knows there is at least one red hat (individually she knows there are at least 2 of course) but she also knows that both other children also know there is at least 1 red hat.

Because they are all wearing red hats this same logic is true for all three children so not only do they all know individually there is more than 1 red hat but they also all know that each other already knows there is at least one red hat. So before the game starts, without being told anything each child individually knows that...

* There are at least 2 red hats in the game.
* That the other children in the game know for sure at least one red hat is in the game.

The common knowledge (bullet point 2) is thus already there or rather it can be deduced by each of the children without being told.

I want to make it clear that I'm not saying I don't understand the 'chain of logic' they explain and how the common knowledge of "at least 1 red hat" changes the scenario, what I'm now stuck on is why this common knowledge itself can't be deduced from the scenario without having to be told it specifically.

So I'm back to div0's point earlier that it 'breaks' after more than 2 red hats are introduced. Let's look at if only two red hats were involved in the same scenario above, then I totally get why that 'extra' information from the teacher is needed. So let's say Child 1 is wearing a white hat and Children 2 and 3 are wearing red. In this scenario the common knowledge that at least one red hat exists can't be deduced by Child 2 or 3.

Why? Well once again, individually they all know there is at least one red hat. However Child 2 sees Child 1 wearing white and Child 3 wearing red, therefore she doesn't know if Child 3 is looking at 1 red and 1 white, or 2 whites. Thus she can't say that Child 3 knows there is at least 1 red hat as in her mind from Child 3's P.O.V they could still all be white. This is the same for Child 3's view of Child 2 of course.

I hope I've explained that clearly :o
 
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It doesn't make any sense at all between the two groups. You claim that the kids are all really smart and that they obviously catch on to the solution in the second group.

Thats fine. I understand how they do it. If you are the 7th red hat kid and everyone before you has said "I don't know" including the last red hat child to say "I don't know" then you can be sure that you have a red hat based on the assumption that the previous red hat to say "I don't know" could see at least one red and one black. Seeing as you can only see the blacks, you must also be a red.

Why didn't the first group get it though. Telling them that at least one hat is red does absolutely nothing in this situation. Its just to throw people off the read issue. You are also making the assumption that all of the children are perfect and act in a very particular way.

The whole thing is worded and put into a very odd situation.

I agree. Group 1 should also have been able to figure it out.

The only time Group 1 wouldn't be able to solve it is if there were all red, all black, or 2 or less of any one colour.

In the case of 7 reds and > 2 blacks, it is solvable by group 1, isn't it.
 
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