More egg probabilities

It looks a bit complicated at first glance but it's quite simple.

Her initial pick has 1/6 (~0.16) chance to be a normal egg. This means the rest of the eggs have 5/6 chances to be normal. When it is revelead that one of the 5 eggs is boiled, it's chance to be normal becomes zero. Thus, the 5/6 chance to be normal is now for the group of eggs 2,3,4 and 5. By changing her choice, she now has 1/4*5/6 (~0.2) chance to get the normal egg - higher than the initial 0.16 .

She doesn't want that so she should carry on with her initial choice. :)
 
She needs to stick...

People are blindly applying the monty hall problem without paying attention to the question.
 
Scam said:
She probably should because her odds were 1/6 to start with and they were just reduced to 1/5. That said most probably is a load of nonsense so meh.. whatever.
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She probably shouldn't as odds of 1/6 are rather better for her.
 
It's obviously 50%, you either get the bad egg, or you don't. I don't get where this 16.666% has come from.
 
Zethor said:
It looks a bit complicated at first glance but it's quite simple.

Her initial pick has 1/6 (~0.16) chance to be a normal egg. This means the rest of the eggs have 5/6 chances to be normal. When it is revelead that one of the 5 eggs is boiled, it's chance to be normal becomes zero. Thus, the 5/6 chance to be normal is now for the group of eggs 2,3,4 and 5. By changing her choice, she now has 1/4*5/6 (~0.2) chance to get the normal egg - higher than the initial 0.16 .

She doesn't want that so she should carry on with her initial choice. :)
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With one caveat:

You didn't reveal the specific behavior of the person who revealed that egg 6 is boiled.

If they knew that egg 6 was boiled and they intentionally revealed the status of one of the boiled eggs which in this case, happened to be egg 6, you are correct.

If they did not know which eggs were boiled and just revealed the status of egg 6 which which in this case, happened to be boiled, switching would have no effect.
 
The funny thing is I spoke to a few people at work about the Monty hall & a number didn't believe me. I ended up making a VBA Monty hall simulator I can send them in excel & run off 50,000 examples of the win rates of switching & sticking!.
 
Where is the best place to learn about eggs?

In the hen-cyclopedia !

Thanks all, you've been a great audience. ;)
 
I think the game should be called smuggle and we see how many hardboiled eggs she can "store" the lower number of eggs wins and a successfully stored but broken egg when it comes out gets treble points.
 
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