Mortgage Rate Rises

Sell up if margins are poor. Put it into 5% safe returns?

Yup, it's the only leveraged investment some of these BTL people are perhaps really aware of and it's mostly gone up or sideways for the last few years so they're all genius investors now... of course if they're leveraged too much and it goes the other way then unlucky! Time to sell.

Others simply will, as you've pointed out, because the returns become a bit poor. I mean historically they've done rather nicely out of it, some risk of bad tenants and missing rent/having to pay for evictions but overall slapping down a low 5 figure sum on a deposit and then getting a six-figure asset out of it in a decade or two + another six-figure capital gain per property is quite sweet... util the market tanks and it isn't.

Who’s going to buy?

People who want a house of course.

I mean I've got an apartment in London with lots of equity but I quite fancy a house outside of London at some point, I could buy a modest detached or semi-detached family home in various locations with my current equity or I could perhaps buy a large house with a mortgage.

If London prices drop more than non-London prices then I lose a bit, if London prices don't drop as steeply as non-London prices then I could do nicely... if both drop about the same then whatever...

It doesn't really matter if my apartment drops a bit as I'm planning to use it to buy another property in the future and that property will likely drop a little bit too... in fact, if that property is otherwise a bit more expensive than my apartment then it's probably good for me overall if property drops a bit as the same % fall means the more expensive property I might like to buy in future will drop even more in terms of price.

So if some landlord or owner of a larger property perhaps bought during the inflated covid non-London I want a garden price increase has over extended themself then at some price levels it might drop to you could find someone like me happy to take it off their hands.
 
Well it’s not going to be those that cannot afford the current interest rates.

And that's why prices might well fall a bit...

Large price and low rate = same affordability as a lower price and higher rate.

There's still a similar number of houses (or lack thereof) and people who'd quite like to own them.

Granted there are other factors of course but in general, people still want homes, innit!
 
Do wonder where the market and rates will end up on average over next 5 years.

Maybe a average rate of 4-5pc and a 15pc drop?

I guess affordability just has to correct. The multiples of wages has been high, but with low rates its fine. But that multiple is just too far now.

Would I bail now if I was a FTB? Yes I would.
 
Some might have no choice to due to their borrowing figure being cut to pieces with higher rates

No way I'd want to be buying a 260k house with let's a say a 40k deposit to see that potentially wiped out and more.

Would only take 20 pc to be well into Negative. And potentially even after 5 years you could still be a mortgage prisoner

At 25pc drop you'd be looking at a net debt of about 25k with that.

That's a lot of cash


But its a horrible choice to have to make. Prices could easily drop 10 (not too bad) to 30pc (oh ****) . It's a life changing decision to make.
 
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No way I'd want to be buying a 260k house with let's a say a 40k deposit to see that potentially wiped out and more.

Would only take 20 pc to be well into Negative. And potentially even after 5 years you could still be a mortgage prisoner

At 25pc drop you'd be looking at a net debt of about 25k with that.

That's a lot of cash


But its a horrible choice to have to make. Prices could easily drop 10 (not too bad) to 30pc (oh ****) . It's a life changing decision to make.
Buy a forever home and then negative equity won't matter. A home is for living in not a vehicle for wealth creation.
 
Because the poor do stupid things like buy houses and never get the capital you need to generate wealth
You are sounding like the local likely lad saying “people make stupid decisions and leave their doors open” before stealing £300 from a nana. Taking advantage of people who in a tough situation is gross - even if you do hide it behind a veil of money and “success”.
 
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