Mortgage Rate Rises
- Thread starter glenimp617
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Caporegime
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You also have to look at what WFH has brought in. A load of money moving out of the south as people prefer to live in the countryside or less densely populated areas. Whilst some places might see a drop others will see a massive rise.
If UK houses prices do fall by 65% that would probably be enough to tempt me back to the UK!What do you think of what these guys are saying? Don't sound very good to me.
Mortgage Payer Misery. No Bailout. What you must do NOW.
It's hard to accept that something you didn't want to happen is happening. But that's exactly what's happening now. (Hear the audio podcast of this livestre...www.youtube.com
What do you think of what these guys are saying? Don't sound very good to me.
Mortgage Payer Misery. No Bailout. What you must do NOW.
It's hard to accept that something you didn't want to happen is happening. But that's exactly what's happening now. (Hear the audio podcast of this livestre...
Waffle. Scare mongering. Random people just making their own predictions.
Where did you get 65% from?
I've only scanned the video but from what I heard they're predicting up to 35%, which I actually don't think is wildly unlikely.
Upper end of most estimates, sure; but a far cry from 65%.
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35pc seems unlikely.
Even at 20 there'd be so many people jumping at the chance to get in.
You have to think.. If you had the money.. What point would you jump in? A generally appreciating asset dropping 20pc is a golden opportunity
65pc..lol
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Caporegime
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I think in stock market terms, 20% drop is Bear Market. It's when you buy, when everyone sells. If you have the capital and the nerve.
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Since Margret Thatcher allowed housing stock to be sold off at discounted prices, and the sale of state utilities services. This country has been expensive to life in, and house prices for decades have risen to levels that far exceed the normal persons wage ratio to mortgage debt !
We do need a crash, however so many people will not be able to move for many, many years. This country is going own the toilet ! !
We do need a crash, however so many people will not be able to move for many, many years. This country is going own the toilet ! !
I believe that's a very worst case scenario
The system will not be allowed to fail. Much more than 20% is never happening imo.
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In the video they said that was worst case from peak in 2022, seems pretty unlikely though.
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That was the main take away from the video, a lot of people have an irrational belief that the government will step in and help them.
They did some fag packet maths and it would by multiples of the amount spent during Covid and would trigger lenders to pull the plug on the UK economy ala what happened recently.. apparently.
I actually wouldn't be surprised, that when the land registry data catches up, it turns out that we've already seen a 10% reduction in transactions prices that are happening now; and I definitely think there's a lot worse to come as people's fixes end over the next 12 months.
The retracing of the Covid boom (around 20%) has been my rough guess for a while now; I haven't seen anything to make me change my mind on that, but there's definitely significant room for error either side.
35% is without a doubt at the upper end of all the models i've seen so far, but they've definitely been shifting upwards over the last few weeks, and given that we're at what appears to be a fairly significant economic turning point, it's not completely out of the realms of possibility; even if the idea does seem so unlike what we've been used to.
Personally, I don't think that's going to happen in the kind of numbers that many seem to think it will.
Once the data catches up and the popular narrative turns to one of falling prices, people become extremely fearful of trying to catch a falling knife.
It's possible of course, but i'm not convinced by the narrative that cash buyers are going to completely prop up the market; I think that in those circles we'll start seeing a lot of people talk about waiting for the bottom, and by the time they know that it's in, they're too late.
I think that's the point though, we're talking about an asset that has only appreciated in the way it has over the last few years, due to the availability of extremely cheap debt and a very specific set of policy related circumstances; all of which have now come to an end.
As such, I don't think it's wise to use past price action history as an indicator of future performance. When the entire landscape seems to be shifting, all bets are off; there's just too many unknowns.
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But we still have an asset that is volume limited.
Because that doesn't ever seem like changing I don't see anything but a long term appreciation. Or at least stagnation (preffered).
I can see a retrace of covid at worst. A correction if you will.
You can never know. But I'd be tempted if I had the cash to jump in at 20-30pc decline.
If prices dropped 20% we would probably jump ship and get the next house we want and suffer the few years of pain. It would save us a few hundred thousand so worth it.
I imagine it will be more like 10% and a lot of people like ourselves who would like to move up the ladder will just stay put.
I imagine it will be more like 10% and a lot of people like ourselves who would like to move up the ladder will just stay put.
Caporegime
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Is it a bad time do do house renovation then?
It depends, surely?