Mortgage Rate Rises

delta0 said:
Rightmove have sold price as well and this is directly from the gov data. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices.html
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Indeed, the regional breakdown at the bottom is a fairly useful way of looking through Land Registry transaction prices in detail, quickly and easily.*

However, it's interesting that they've chosen to link to and highlight their own index and report on the very same page. Call me a cynic, but it's almost as if they're hoping that people will conflate the two.

Not only is their monthly report based only upon asking prices, but it's also only based upon the asking prices of newly added properties that month.

Anything that has been on their site for longer isn't included, meaning that properties with reductions or one's that have just been sitting there without interest aren't in any way accounted for; and all it takes is for a handful of high value houses, stupidly optimistic sellers, or cheeky developers to add unrealistically valued and incomplete new build adverts to the site one month, for it to completely skew their numbers.

In my opinion, Rightmove's report is pretty much useless, it's just so misleading.

*Although it's worth remembering that land registry data is lagging by up to year at the moment.
 
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Holy ****, the place I'm renting was valued at £584,000 recently.

It sold for £89k in 1998, £161k in todays money.

Inflation wise that's an 81% increase, in real terms it's 556% more.

Housing has increased here at 6.87x inflation, based on this place. I knew it was bad but seeing an actual example like that is ridiculous.
 
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Yeah prices are still crazy, but money is going to cost more and more. Hopefully or sadly we may have entered the true perfect storm.
Money costs more risk goes up prices drop a bit LTV gets worse costs go up, prices drop etc.
I think the BTL brigade are well into the cycle, many don't even realise and many are losing money and don't realise.
 
I'm somewhat torn. I don't particularly want to be paying 5+% when our mortgage is renewed at the end of the year but I would love house prices to take a massive adjustment so our next house is a few hundred thousand cheaper. Rates of 5-6% aren't sustainable so something has to give and that something has to be house prices.
 
danlightbulb said:
The reason for this is that there are now many younger people on very good salaries. When I started my job, the salary was low and I had to progress my way up. Now, younger people are going straight into jobs at very good salaries.
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You're going to have to quantify this a bit.

When did you start your job and what was the salary then?
What is the starting salary now for that job (or as close to it if its no longer there)?
 
unwashed potato! said:
We are less than 6 months so had a price from our broker. Various prices given, but he will charge £240 for the privalige. How do I go about doing this myself? Assume it's fairly straight forward?
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Mortgage comparisons sites. Websites of banks and lenders.

Some people say that brokers can get better deals than the average punter but I have never used one so I have no idea.
 
Richie said:
You're going to have to quantify this a bit.

When did you start your job and what was the salary then?
What is the starting salary now for that job (or as close to it if its no longer there)?
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I don't have hard figures, it's just my perception of what I see in my own workplace.

What could a new graduate get in 2000, maybe £15k, £20k if lucky? Now a new grad can get jobs at high 30s at least, probably low to mid 40s maybe even nearly 50k. We just employed a graduate analyst on £36k, he is useless. I'm not on a great deal more than this (I'm just below the 40% tax threshold) after 20+ years experience.

It is a perception thing but there is certainly a lot of money around in the grad world for some people. Also it didn't used to be common for a couple to both be earning good salaries, there was typically a higher earner and a lower earner out of a couple. Now two decent salaries are far more common I would say.
 
ci_newman said:
Younger people aren't going into higher paid salaries, the average age of a FTB has increased dramatically and as a natural result their available salary for someone in their 30s is higher than someone in their 20s.
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This makes interesting reading: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8456/
Basically since the last recession it is the young that have fared best, 18-21 are actually getting paid more in real terms than 2008, median wage has gone up by 45%. Looking at the 22-29 age bracket, in 2008 they earned below 85% of UK overall earnings, now they earn above 85%.

So what @danlightbulb is saying is supported by ONS stats, the fact is young people have closed the gap in earnings compared to 15 years ago, or to put it another way, earnings are more evenly distributed between the under 30s and the overall population compared to what they used to be. That said, in real terms, most people have lower income, it's only the youngsters that are being showered with big income rises so actually FTB aren't really better off in real term income.

Anecdotally withing the IT industry I see people in their 20s progressing much more rapidly. The idea of 'earning your stripes' simply through length of service has (thankfully) started to be of less relevance compared to competence and drive. People used to think it somewhat laughable to have 'Senior bla bla" job titles for people who had only been working for a couple of years but progression can happen rapidly in the right environments now (meritocracy). HOWEVER - I suspect this varies a lot based on the type of job, and indeed organisation.
 
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HangTime said:
This makes interesting reading: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8456/
Basically since the last recession it is the young that have fared best, 18-21 are actually getting paid more in real terms than 2008, median wage has gone up by 45%. Looking at the 22-29 age bracket, in 2008 they earned below 85% of UK overall earnings, now they earn above 85%.

So what @danlightbulb is saying is supported by ONS stats, the fact is young people have closed the gap in earnings compared to 15 years ago, or to put it another way, earnings are more evenly distributed between the under 30s and the overall population compared to what they used to be.
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Any link to NMW, I would assume plenty of youngsters are on that and as such bumping up the averages
NMW having outrisen average wages every year I believe
 
Yes I figured as much, legislation has probably been dragging up the bottom rung.
Average wage for 22-29 bracket however is a lot higher than minimum wage.

For reference here is the change between 2008-2022 by age bracket:

All employees
34%​
16-17 a
28%​
18-21
50%​
22-29
38%​
30-39
28%​
40-49
36%​
50+ / 50-59 b
35%​
60+
38%​

Basically 16-17 and 30-39 have been hardest hit with wages only rising 28%. 18-21 and 22-29 are doing the best.
 
fez said:
I'm somewhat torn. I don't particularly want to be paying 5+% when our mortgage is renewed at the end of the year but I would love house prices to take a massive adjustment so our next house is a few hundred thousand cheaper. Rates of 5-6% aren't sustainable so something has to give and that something has to be house prices.
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Lower house prices benefit young roll on a slow decline. Hopefully slow enough not to plunge people into negative.
 
413x said:
Lower house prices benefit young roll on a slow decline. Hopefully slow enough not to plunge people into negative.
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Someone has to lose unfortunately and the market needs to take a hit and a bit of a reset. Its not nice but when the majority of people getting on the housing ladder or buying bigger houses are doing so because of external factors like inheritance, money from parents and living at home for years to save its completely broken.
 
danlightbulb said:
I don't have hard figures, it's just my perception of what I see in my own workplace.

What could a new graduate get in 2000, maybe £15k, £20k if lucky? Now a new grad can get jobs at high 30s at least, probably low to mid 40s maybe even nearly 50k. We just employed a graduate analyst on £36k, he is useless. I'm not on a great deal more than this (I'm just below the 40% tax threshold) after 20+ years experience.

It is a perception thing but there is certainly a lot of money around in the grad world for some people. Also it didn't used to be common for a couple to both be earning good salaries, there was typically a higher earner and a lower earner out of a couple. Now two decent salaries are far more common I would say.
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I don’t think its common for grads to be earning high 30s straight out of uni.
 
fez said:
I'm somewhat torn. I don't particularly want to be paying 5+% when our mortgage is renewed at the end of the year but I would love house prices to take a massive adjustment so our next house is a few hundred thousand cheaper. Rates of 5-6% aren't sustainable so something has to give and that something has to be house prices.
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Isn't it all relative? Your house drops in value and the house you want to buy drops in value, so it's even Steven's.
 
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