That pretty much sums up my purchasing decision. Still fancy going 16C at some point but you make a good argument for why it's not going to be worth it unless you really know you can utilise those extra cores now.
16c is pretty much pointless outside of work programs. But I mostly wrote with VFM gaming in mind. Remember, even if some games might end up benefiting from >8c the question is - how long & what will prices look like then? And also, what are the other advantages of newer CPUs comparatively (not to mention higher cooling & mobo reqs etc)? Because buying a 3950x is easily >2x the cost of a 3700x so it's also gonna be 3700x for Y amount of time + what the price difference can buy you afterwards & how will used market look like (Eg for 4000 series etc). So there's a lot of thinking that goes into it that I don't make explicit just because I get a headache trying to piece it all together but suffices to say, 3700x is a smart and simple buy.
Good post Ponero. Would you say then a 3900x-3950x would be a waste for a pure gaming build that wanted to last as long as possible with just the odd gpu upgrade. Theres people still on 2500k (overclocked) with good gpus and gaming at pretty reasonable settings. I would like to be in that position with my cpu and buy whatever the top 4000 ryzen cpu is for that reason.
Short answer: Yes, but it's complicated. And I say that because it's a question of expectations as well. How much you push resolution, how much you care about certain effects more than others (eg LOD streaming bothers me immensely & that's a particularly CPU intensive setting to max usually), how high a refresh rate you target, how sensitive you are to frametime variance, what games you play and on and on it goes.
I think in the case of 2500k/2600k owners it's mostly been a general 60hz target and with some mid-tier upgrades in terms of GPU from time to time, so that's why it worked well, and they got used to the shakier frametimes too. Plus with console CPUs being so weak we only ever got limited CPU reqs being pushed & DX12 and Vulkan still are just getting a proper push now after all these years. So it's a big combination of factors to their longevity.
Imo if you wanted to get most bang 4 buck you'd get a 3700x today and a decent mobo, then upgrade to a 4000 series with higher core count years later when (if) those could be put to better use and they'd be much cheaper. But even then it's only in case you wanted to push max FPS as hard as possible, in which case you'd have to do a much more target investigation on the games in particular and probably would go Intel, and only if it's >144hz because even Ryzen 2000s can usually get to the 140s in most games. And for AAA it's usually 99% of the time a GPU bottleneck (or a software bottleneck) way before it's CPU, so even getting to the point where the CPU is a problem is very difficult.
Basically, there's too many variables needed to really make something above a 3700x shine. Unless there's a particular scenario you have in mind & know for sure what you need, then you're not really gonna get more from a 3900/3950x than a 3700x for gaming. In the situation today, I would ALWAYS buy a 3700x and then pocket the money for a future upgrade rather than spend in on a better CPU. Hell, I'd even do that with a 3600 but that requires even more disclaimers and scenarios, so I'll stick to 3700x for simplicity.
And I should point out, I wrote all above thinking you'd have the best GPU available, so you'd only be GPU bound in terms of 'there's no better GPU available & the game can take more'. So unless you buy a 2080 ti every time a new one comes out, then it's even LESS a concern to go with a bigger CPU.