Even if Nvidia do a deal to get some early, thats still the end of H1. You will not get a mid or high end card until Q3 earliest. Unless you are talking about another paper launch?
Pascal wasn't really a paper launch - albeit demand massively outstripped supply but there was some quantity of stock coming through - pre-orders were being fulfilled.
As before I'd be wary using GDDR6 commercial launch as a guide - people were saying the same thing as you about the same time out from GDDR5X commercial launch and then Pascal - I mean it is all in the threads here.