Nissan leaf correct decision?

[Ant84]

Depends on what kind of charging infrastructure you have nearby.

If there's a free rapid charger at a supermarkert nearby where you could legitimately take regular stops for lunch / breaks then it would be a good idea. But if you're limited to a mains/3/6kw charger or paying high prices for rapids then it might not be such a good idea.

I'm not too sure about the rapid charge network nearby. It's probably expanding all the time, but I work the day shift so I'd be looking at charging overnight on the driveway - possibly on an Economy 7 plan. 175 miles a day is about the most I've ever covered in a day, with an average of around 125 miles a day covered.

Running costs would be much better than the Prius even though that averages 55mpg and hardly anything ever goes wrong with it.

 

[Psycho Sonny]

I think with the cost of replacement batteries it's best to wait until we are into Gen 5 of electric vehicles before looking at getting one.

Depreciation must be mental on them due to the elephant in the room of replacement battery costs.

Might be worth looking at second hand ones for cheap in a few years.

 

[Journey]

Depreciation must be mental on them due to the elephant in the room of replacement battery costs.

Might be worth looking at second hand ones for cheap in a few years.

Contradicting yourself much? Look at second hand ones in a few years, when the batteries will be no good?

If you actual look into the cost per kWh of Li-ion for EV's it has dropped from over $1000+ per kWh in 2011, to less than $207 per kWh last year, with Tesla on board to get the cost down to $100 or less by 2020, and Chevrolet stated that the packs for the Bolt EV were at only $145 per kWh and that was the end of 2016.

They are looking at a 40% reduction YoY to enable a cost comparison with ICE, and this is already on target by no later than 2022, with the longevity of the batteries to exceed 8 years of use before replacement is required. Money is also being spent by several manufacturers into battery reconditioning, and replacement technologies, allowing the dealers to take in a Part Ex, and have it sold with a low use pack installed, making it a win-win for the end user, and the dealer, oh ... and the planet.

 

[Psycho Sonny]

Contradicting yourself much? Look at second hand ones in a few years, when the batteries will be no good?

If you actual look into the cost per kWh of Li-ion for EV's it has dropped from over $1000+ per kWh in 2011, to less than $207 per kWh last year, with Tesla on board to get the cost down to $100 or less by 2020, and Chevrolet stated that the packs for the Bolt EV were at only $145 per kWh and that was the end of 2016.

They are looking at a 40% reduction YoY to enable a cost comparison with ICE, and this is already on target by no later than 2022, with the longevity of the batteries to exceed 8 years of use before replacement is required. Money is also being spent by several manufacturers into battery reconditioning, and replacement technologies, allowing the dealers to take in a Part Ex, and have it sold with a low use pack installed, making it a win-win for the end user, and the dealer, oh ... and the planet.

my point being if you pick one up cheap enough and factor in a replacement battery it could work out to be a good deal.

as in you get a brand new battery and the car will then be good for another 5 years or so

 

[Hawk Tuah]

Mine is 4 years old now. Still got a 12/12 battery. However, battery expectation has risen since mine was built.

It will be interesting if many manufacturers offer KW upgrades to older cars. Replacing old batteries with new and higher capacity packs. I doubt it as potentially that could hamper new car sales.

 

[Journey]

It will be interesting if many manufacturers offer KW upgrades to older cars. Replacing old batteries with new and higher capacity packs. I doubt it as potentially that could hamper new car sales.

I would be surprised if this something at least a few car manufacturers didn't offer, since it keeps a perfectly good good car on the road, and could end up being a reasonably high margin sale for them. Take in to account the fact that with EV's there are so few moving parts, or parts that need replacing, so if the overall vehicle is in good condition then there is no reason not to do such an upgrade.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

I'm not too sure about the rapid charge network nearby. It's probably expanding all the time, but I work the day shift so I'd be looking at charging overnight on the driveway - possibly on an Economy 7 plan. 175 miles a day is about the most I've ever covered in a day, with an average of around 125 miles a day covered.

Running costs would be much better than the Prius even though that averages 55mpg and hardly anything ever goes wrong with it.

You are right on the fringe with a 40kw Leaf, it tops out at 150 miles range. It will be less in the winter and you will need to charge it during the day. You will not be able to get away with wearing a big coat and not putting the heating on if you are using it as a taxi to maximise those miles. There are lots of leaf taxi's out there but the main firm that runs them bought their own DC rapid charger.

I wouldn't worry about the cost of public rapid chargers, they are either cheaper than buying petrol or about the same and the majority of charging can be done at home for much less.

There is a 60kw due out next year, I think it will likely be worth waiting for and in theory good for 180-200 miles.

I would be surprised if this something at least a few car manufacturers didn't offer, since it keeps a perfectly good good car on the road, and could end up being a reasonably high margin sale for them. Take in to account the fact that with EV's there are so few moving parts, or parts that need replacing, so if the overall vehicle is in good condition then there is no reason not to do such an upgrade.

A manufacture would not want to keep old cars on the road, they are generally measured on new car sales. The older a car gets the less money a manufacturer gets as reconditioned and 3rd party parts become available. Service profit is goes to an independent or the franchise dealer not the manufacturer.

I really can't see this happening without regulation which forces manufacturers to do it, depending on the car other bits of it may well need to be changed also.

Why would they want you to upgrade a 24kw Leaf when you can buy a brand new 40kw on a shiny expensive finance deal which makes it look cheap but really isn't.

 

[Journey]

A manufacture would not want to keep old cars on the road, they are generally measured on new car sales. The older a car gets the less money a manufacturer gets as reconditioned and 3rd party parts become available. Service profit is goes to an independent or the franchise dealer not the manufacturer.

I really can't see this happening without regulation which forces manufacturers to do it, depending on the car other bits of it may well need to be changed also.

Why would they want you to upgrade a 24kw Leaf when you can buy a brand new 40kw on a shiny expensive finance deal which makes it look cheap but really isn't.

Yes, but that is now, and I am pretty sure the future will be significantly different with regards to how cars are used and sold. Manufacturers/dealers after all need to sell cars, but they are going to lose huge sums of money to servicing (which is very high margin) so the natural progression will be to offer 'approved refurbished' cars, which net a higher margin, and lower cost of doing business overall. It might not be this generation of cars, using your example of the Leaf, but I don't see it being very far off at all, and it only takes someone like Tesla to start doing it, then everyone else jumps on the bandwagon to play catch up.

 

[Ant84]

You are right on the fringe with a 40kw Leaf, it tops out at 150 miles range. It will be less in the winter and you will need to charge it during the day. You will not be able to get away with wearing a big coat and not putting the heating on if you are using it as a taxi to maximise those miles. There are lots of leaf taxi's out there but the main firm that runs them bought their own DC rapid charger.

I wouldn't worry about the cost of public rapid chargers, they are either cheaper than buying petrol or about the same and the majority of charging can be done at home for much less.

There is a 60kw due out next year, I think it will likely be worth waiting for and in theory good for 180-200 miles.

I've read they're good for 150 miles real world range, but most tests would involve maybe 50% or more motorway driving whereas my type of work is 95% town work - at speeds where the electric motor is at its most efficient.

I was hoping the range for almost exclusively city driving would be closer to 200 miles from a full charge.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Yes, but that is now, and I am pretty sure the future will be significantly different with regards to how cars are used and sold. Manufacturers/dealers after all need to sell cars, but they are going to lose huge sums of money to servicing (which is very high margin) so the natural progression will be to offer 'approved refurbished' cars, which net a higher margin, and lower cost of doing business overall. It might not be this generation of cars, using your example of the Leaf, but I don't see it being very far off at all, and it only takes someone like Tesla to start doing it, then everyone else jumps on the bandwagon to play catch up.

I just don't see the likes of mainstream manufactures being concerned about the loss of servicing revenue but dealers and independents on the other hand will be very much concerned because the market will shrink.

I fully accept that there is currently a lot of money to be made from servicing but that money does not go to Nissan or Ford etc. it goes to the franchise dealer which is a separate entity in almost every case but Tesla. Tesla do not have dealers and you deal with them directly. Sure the manufacturer gets a cut on some oil filters and other parts but its really not a lot and they get almost all of their profit from sales and finance. Most of the profit is in the 'labour' rather than the parts.

There will absolutely be a market for selling re-conditioned or even upgraded batteries but it will be small, even when the cells get cheaper it will still be like replacing the engine in a an 8-12 year old car now. A huge expense that normally isn't economically viable even if you have minimal labour costs. The current downward trend in costs is not sustainable long term and the 'floor' will be met within a few years. Demand for some raw materials is already causing large price rises and companies are scrambling to increase production. The demand side isn't even registering on the typical S curve yet.

There is also the issue that older cars often have other issues like electrics which will need repairing (expensive) and other wear and tear like the interior which most do not find acceptable so will be less attractive. Most of the market are really only interested in less than 3 year old cars and most of the people that drive older cars generally can not afford to replace something as expensive as the battery.

There is a much much bigger market for 2nd hand cells where power density is much less of a concern within things like grid storage.

I've read they're good for 150 miles real world range, but most tests would involve maybe 50% or more motorway driving whereas my type of work is 95% town work - at speeds where the electric motor is at its most efficient.

I was hoping the range for almost exclusively city driving would be closer to 200 miles from a full charge.

The range will be longer with the low speed but stop start will negate much of that so I really doubt you will see anything like 200 miles in summer. Also when you are sat in the car for 6 hours with the heater blasting in the middle of winter you will see a reduction in range.

I'm not saying don't consider it but you are looking at right on the edge of what the car is capable of without charging it 'mid shift'. A good option would be to try and hire one to test its capabilities.

 

[Neil777]

I'm constantly weighing up switching my private hire Prius for a 30kwh Leaf, or maybe even the new 40kwh version.

The savings across the year with around 30k miles covered would be fairly big, but then there's depreciation to factor in.

In any event, I suspect the newer Leafs with the higher range would make the perfect private hire vehicle.

This youtuber has already done what you're thinking about

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP57Fzay9fMmIrnE5GtWk9A

 

[Orionaut]

my point being if you pick one up cheap enough and factor in a replacement battery it could work out to be a good deal.

as in you get a brand new battery and the car will then be good for another 5 years or so

Also there are plenty of people like me who would be just fine with a "Second Car/shopping trolley" with a battery that has degraded as long as I can still get 20 mile/day out of it as long as it is cheap enough....