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Nvidia must be in real trouble.....

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littlepuppy

littlepuppy

littlepuppy

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This Fermi launch is worse than the 5*** launch, the avaliability even to fanboys is shocking...

If they stopped GT200 production because it was losing them money, I cant see how Fermi will make them money either as if it needs to be sold at current levels to make a profit then I dont think they will sell enough, if they drop it to get sales, they will be back where they were before....

Plus if these cards start dying due to extreme heat that will sap up even more cards!

Interesting times, I do like my nvidia stuff and think its really sad to see them in this state....

Hats off to ATI though, they came back from a very poor position and are going from strength to strength now which is making it even more noticable / worse for Nvidia as there is a very viable competitor out there...
 
The way I see it is that whilst Fermi is technically a good base architecture, it is unworkable with current fabrication processes, and will remain so until the die shrink follows in the coming months.

After they had poured money into R&D of Fermi, this current trickling out of cars is nothing more than saving face and attempting to build a fanbase for the tech based on good reviews and word of mouth.

Nvidia will bounce back, but it won't be until either a die shrink, or the 2nd generation of Fermi.
 
littlepuppy said:
This Fermi launch is worse than the 5*** launch, the avaliability even to fanboys is shocking...

If they stopped GT200 production because it was losing them money, I cant see how Fermi will make them money either as if it needs to be sold at current levels to make a profit then I dont think they will sell enough, if they drop it to get sales, they will be back where they were before....
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They are still making a large loss selling them at £450, if it was making a profit, they'd be in full production and we'd still have about 30-40% of the numbers the 58xx cards are churning out, they aren't do that, and seeing as they "should" have been in production from the first week of January, they should have 100k plus out for sale, they don't, pretty much giving us a clue its not in production.

paradigm said:
The way I see it is that whilst Fermi is technically a good base architecture, it is unworkable with current fabrication processes, and will remain so until the die shrink follows in the coming months.

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Die Shrink isn't till next year, and it won't help Fermi, its not any more power hungry than the 5870, its 60% bigger and uses 60% more power, its EXACTLY where it should be power wise for its size, the problem is its only giving 10% extra performance for that die size. I think most people realised back on netburst, clockspeeds won't be going through the roof any time soon, its about efficiency of the core and performance for its size that makes a good core.

Fermi is a horrible design, its the P4 of GPU's, lots of basic shaders that take a lot of space and power.

The problem with this theory that it will do well with a die shrink is, the "normal" route for a next gen is to double the pipeline/shading power. Meaning at 28nm Nvidia will be aiming for 1024 shaders, on the current Fermi design, this will maintain it being 60% larger ,60% higher power usage, and 10-20% faster.

Nvidia missed clock speeds on the 65nm 280gtx by about 10%, they missed the 55nm 285gtx targets by about 15%, they missed the clock speeds on 40nm by about 25%.......... it needs currently, a good 30-40% clock speed boost to make the size comparable in performance to size, to the 58xx architecture.

28nm will likely be even harder again for clock speeds, so Fermi 2 on 28nm will have a WORSE problem, with more leakage and a harder time hitting the clock speeds they need.

Sure, if they make a 512sp Fermi on 28nm, it would be fantastic, but seeing as AMD will be aiming for a 3200SP 28nm chip, and be able to make it, a 512sp Fermi will be some 60-80% slower.

A die shrink won't help Nvidia at all, their design is too big and too inefficient, and that problem gets WORSE the smaller the process gets, not better. Literally every single other chip maker on the entire planet, has worked that one out already.
 
Has there been any availability of "fermi" in the uk yet? Can't recall seeing any threads where people got theirs.
 
Its not that much worse than the 5 series launch - it wasn't until Jan that 5850 was properly available and 5870 was available in more than single digit quantities per model.
 
drunkenmaster said:
Sure, if they make a 512sp Fermi on 28nm, it would be fantastic, but seeing as AMD will be aiming for a 3200SP 28nm chip, and be able to make it, a 512sp Fermi will be some 60-80% slower.
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I would be very suprised to see a 3200SP 28nm chip or anything like that on AMD's next architecture.
 
It's a lot worse than the 5000 launch, look around, no supply anywhere even in the states, and what cards there has been there was like 7, it's still a paper launch.
 
nope theres 470 stock at a well known retailer and asus as well :P but there going to be gone by the end of this day XD
 
Aye I was tempted because of stock being so minimal but I dont get my money until next tuesday :) Ill just pre order a 480 like everyone else...
 
Rroff said:
Its not that much worse than the 5 series launch - it wasn't until Jan that 5850 was properly available and 5870 was available in more than single digit quantities per model.
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The difference tbh between the 5 series lanuch and fermi's is a month in people were asking when the 5 series would be back in while for Fermi people will probably be asking has it turned up yet. Also it is different because now at least there are viable alternative products on the market unless you want/need 3d vision,cuda, physx.
 
Typically, after releasing a stinker NVidia/ATI tend to rebound with a corker. NVidia will recover from Fermi in the same way that ATI recovered after they were blown away by the 8800 series. Nothing focusses the mind like public failure.
 
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