If we ignore the effects of the tail, it will follow path 1. If the tail is not "ignored" then it will follow path 2. Why? The tilt is only giving a force pushing the aircraft to the right. The tail would then "point" the aircraft in its new direction, and rinse repeat.
Think of a helicopter when it banks left/right.. it does not proceed in a circular motion, it continues left/right.
Think of a helicopter when it banks left/right.. it does not proceed in a circular motion, it continues left/right.