Beansprout said:
I prefer to play safe, but I've never gambled for money. Share dealing > gambling for me
Since when was share dealing safe? Or, for that matter, not gambling?
I agree with you, though. If the object of the exercise is profit, then it's very much a case of assessing risk versus profit, and reducing risk is generally a good strategy ...... unless the potential profit is high. For instance, I've made an impressive profit in both Russian oil stocks and Russian telecomms stocks in the last few years
BUT ...... the risk was that I could have lost the lot. Mostly, I've used funds managed my experts that know the market, rather than direct investments. It mitigates the risks.
So I look at a potential share investment, and weigh the anticipated profit against the risk of loosing everything. I don't make investments I can't afford to lose, unless the risk level is very low. Conversely, one of the worst investments I ever made was Brtitsh Telecom. My mind wasn't really on it and I took too much for granted (I'm talking about the government 3G licence sale and the effect on BT share prices).
As for poker, I play for the game, not the winning or losing, and I certainly don't play online poker for serious money. I want to be able to see the other players if there's anything beyond pin money riding on it, because I consider myself better at reading others than they will be at reading me.
But your suggestion (take the profit and go back to $10) makes a lot of sense in terms of risk avoidance, whether it be poker or shares. Many's the time I've bought shares, and when prices have gone up, sold enough to recoup the initial investment.
But there's another way to look at it, and we're back to risk versus gain. If you have $10 to "invest" in poker, it can take quite a lot of time to parlay it up to $300. If you have $300 to start, it is typically MUCH easier to make the next $300, and the next ..... assuming you're winning through skill, not blind luck.
There's a lot of very poor poker players out there, both online and in casinos. It is perfectly possible for a good and smart player to make a comfortable living from poker,
providing you accept that losses will happen. The real skill (IMHO) lies in the mental response to both winning and losing. If you can manage that, and can take losses on the chin and bounce back, then
over a period a good player will make money. But to make money that's really worth having, and that represents a decent hourly rate, you need to be on medium or high stakes tables and that means the risk is higher as well as the potential profit.
So my advice to divaboy would be to do as Beansprout suggested and go back to the $10 stakes, and repeat this process a few times to gain experience, both with playing and with dealing with getting beaten despite having a damn good hand (because it WILL happen) .... unless you can afford to loose that $300, shrug it off, dig into your pocket for another $300 and carry on regardless. If you can, go for it. If you can't stomach that sort of loss, take Beany's suggestion and bank the $290 profit. Do this a few times until you have a large enough war chest that you can lose that $300 without it hurting too much.
My criteria would be that if you have a given poker fund, never have more than about 20-25% of it at risk at any one time. And if you lose 25% of it (and it'll happen sooner or later), walk away and go back to it another day.