Always hard to say until you see the cars in the first race but if the trajectory from last season continues I think Leclerc has a good shout at it this year - there wasn't much attention or spotlight to it but he finished a reasonably close third with Ferrari looking fairly strong alongside McLaren. I'm not sure Hamilton will manage enough of a smooth start in a new car and team (I suspect Mercedes to Ferrari is a bigger culture shift than McLaren to Mercedes was back in the day too) to go for the title and so may play into Leclerc's hand if Ferrari see a good chance to play the team game in his favour.
Norris and Piastri I think will be there or thereabouts but McLaren will allow them to fight between themselves too much for too long, take points off each other and someone like Leclerc or Verstappen could quietly creep ahead them, leaving McLaren looking at another constructer title only season.
It's hard to count Verstappen out but the Red Bull will need to have seen a bit of a turnaround to keep him in the hunt. He will have the benefit of a teammate that nobody is really expecting to challenge him too hard and so again probably default #1 driver status. If they recover the performance they've lost to others recently, then it's hard to look past Verstappen, even if it might not be his easiest title.
I'm not sure Mercedes will get themselves truly back into the mix at the front enough to give Russell or Antonelli a proper chance.
Unless someone turns up with a surprisingly revolutionary car next year though, I think we could be in for a genuinely interesting season in terms of title race, it was getting close at the top last year.