Premium Bonds - If you post to say how much you've won, please also say how much you have invested.

Mrwong said:
Did I say chance? nope, I said proportion.
Click to expand...
This year, I will have twelve chances of winning.

You will only have eleven.

Each of our bonds has exactly the same chance of winning a prize, you must accept that by the fact that it's a random number drawn from a pool, right? If you don't accept that then there's no point in continuing.

Assuming you do accept that, by definition, if we both have [say] £20k invested, that means I'll have 240,000 chances of winning but you'll only have 220,000 chances of winning over the next year.

It's a lottery. Imagine there's a lottery to win a car and that lottery starts in January and runs through to December. Everyone who buys a ticket during that period has an equal chance of winning but by your logic, you'd have more chance of winning if you bought a ticket in December. This is exactly the same principle.
 
Mrwong said:
Did I say chance? nope, I said proportion.
Click to expand...

Feek said:
This year, I will have twelve chances of winning.

You will only have eleven.

Each of our bonds has exactly the same chance of winning a prize, you must accept that by the fact that it's a random number drawn from a pool, right? If you don't accept that then there's no point in continuing.

Assuming you do accept that, by definition, if we both have [say] £20k invested, that means I'll have 240,000 chances of winning but you'll only have 220,000 chances of winning over the next year.

It's a lottery. Imagine there's a lottery to win a car and that lottery starts in January and runs through to December. Everyone who buys a ticket during that period has an equal chance of winning but by your logic, you'd have more chance of winning if you bought a ticket in December. This is exactly the same principle.
Click to expand...

Still waiting to hear what you think about this.
 
Mrwong said:
This is different as you only have one draw to win so the frequency of a win is 1 in December and the person with more tickets has a more opportunity to win but each ticket has the same chance.
Click to expand...
I'm impressed by your total ineptitude.

How about the fact that you're taking yourself out of just over 8% of the available draws by withdrawing and re-investing?
 
Mrwong said:
And this is why I will stick with the higher proportion.
Click to expand...
Let's go back to my lottery and see if we can make it match your strange, twisted ideas.

At the end of the year, the lottery ends. Every person gets their £1 entry fee back.

The next year, it starts again and each person buys a ticket on the same day they bought a ticket the year before, they get the same number.

When the lottery is drawn the following December, do they all have an equal chance of winning, or do those who bought their ticket in December have a greater chance?
 
Oh and forgetting the lottery thing, you've still not told us how missing a draw and reducing your number of chances by over 8% can actually increase the possibility of a win :confused:
 
Mrwong said:
How do you work out I am 8% down, is there some kind of time constraint?
Click to expand...
It's been said multiple times already.

Feek said:
Even if you withdraw your money and reinvest it on the same day, it'll miss a draw because it has to be in there for a full month before it's eligible. So in that calendar year, you'll only be in eleven draws instead of twelve.
Click to expand...
 
Mrwong said:
Are the draws just for 12 months?
Click to expand...

I just picked a year as it seemed a nice period to give you tell you how much you'd be reducing your chance of a win.
Feek said:
This year, I will have twelve chances of winning.

You will only have eleven.

Each of our bonds has exactly the same chance of winning a prize, you must accept that by the fact that it's a random number drawn from a pool, right? If you don't accept that then there's no point in continuing.

Assuming you do accept that, by definition, if we both have [say] £20k invested, that means I'll have 240,000 chances of winning but you'll only have 220,000 chances of winning over the next year.
Click to expand...
 
Mrwong said:
Does not work like that.
Click to expand...
Are you saying that you won't have a lower chance of winning if you miss a month?

You know what, life's too short to argue like this.

Take your money out, put it back, do whatever you want. You've clearly decided you're going to anyway and won't pay the slightest attention to anything anyone says in here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom