Not sure on why it just became an issue overnight, but the paste squeezing out also can't be taken as a sign that there's good contact. Only the correct thickness pads will guarantee that.
My bad I didn't clarify that I meant due to thermal pump out. You're are right that the paste squeezing out is not enough evidence to suggest a good mounting pressure. But barring torque settings for all the screws on the PCB alongside the exact batch of stock pads used by Nvidia (and probably a step by step guide on dissassembly and reassembly) I'm not sure there's anyway to guarantee that I've done everything correctly (and even that might not be enough because following instruction also requires some skill)
This entire thread started because I suddenly got temperature spikes and after I repasted and repadded nothing changed. By my measurements the stock pads were approximately 1mm. Given their plasticity I assumed they were thicker 'out of the package'. General internet search suggested that stock thickness of 1.5mm is what was used by nvidia and was recommended as replacements pads for the FE (thermalpad.eu, nicehash, general interent teardowns, several modders, including Jayztwocents if that holds any water with anyone). So that's what I used albeit it was Arctic TP-3 instead.
That self attempted maintenance did not lower or raise the temps on GPU hotspots. So my query was more to get help to try and diagnose the issue, or apply a suggested solution that lowered the temps without addressing root cause.
The new pads have squashed themselves down to the same level as the stock pads.
And the GPU has been repasted a couple of times. It is possible I messed up the installation and not put on enough pressure the first time and then on second&third attempt I tightened it too much.
Due to seeing no improvements or deterioration of the temps on CPUID and on thermal camera I'm not entirely sure that lack of mounting pressure is the cause for initial spike or the continuing of the high temps that is plaguing the GPU. Whether that's because I'm being too ginger or of the pads are too thick (even though general information seems to suggest that it is not).
I've applied ptm7950 on wednesday (it was an ebay purchase so could be a poor clone for all I know). I'm going to give it a week to cycle through. So far it has lowered the temps by 2°C. Which is still approximately 15°C higher than what the card used to run typically.