S Korea - more deaths than births in 2020..environmental lifeline?

Minusorange said:
Sounds to me like she sounds very responsible, unlike people here
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So just keep putting it off until you are 'well off' financially? lots of families were brought up in poverty as long as the kids get plenty of love and attention money shouldn't be a huge factor.

Looking at the younger generations today it's probably more accurate to say they don't want to give up their own selfish lifestyle, they'd rather have a new Iphone every year and spend all day on Facebook than a kid to have to buy food for and keep entertained themselves rather than with expensive toys.

Another huge factor is government policy, families are being driven to food banks due to Universal Credit, families are being forced onto Universal Credit due to insane lockdowns, meanwhile you have migrants crossing the channel daily and being housed in expensive hotels at the tax payers expense.

I think Poland and maybe Hungary have a pro-family/marriage policy and their government give incentives for people to get married and have kids but they're in the EU's bad books due to preferring that over mass immigration.
 
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Nasher said:
In the UK deaths/births would be pretty much level. But we keep importing more people.
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We're only projected to grow by about 9% over the next 25 years (per ONS). Approx 3/4th of that is net migration (the remainder being births vs deaths, of course)

It's not a lot, and much of it is really down to an increase in older people (the over-85 being set to double in those 25 years, for example).

It's also very predictable - so services failing to cope is a political choice in not preparing.

And Brexit might very well mean the net migration part of that drops. We'll be struggling with that old population overhead.
 
So what population level do people here see as being equitable for the UK? If it could be achieved without recourse to a "natural" disaster like this virus and done as a fairly managed decline by Draconian financial impediments to multiple child births, I personally would say a level of about 25 to 30 million would be nice. The present level of the UK population is ridiculous.
 
cheesyboy said:
We're only projected to grow by about 9% over the next 25 years (per ONS). Approx 3/4th of that is net migration (the remainder being births vs deaths, of course)

It's not a lot, and much of it is really down to an increase in older people (the over-85 being set to double in those 25 years, for example).

It's also very predictable - so services failing to cope is a political choice in not preparing.

And Brexit might very well mean the net migration part of that drops. We'll be struggling with that old population overhead.
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It's bound to mean no state pension eventually. What other solution is there?
Without robotics/AI someone has to pay for your pension

If the older demographic is too numerous services/pensions have to give
 
413x said:
It's bound to mean no state pension eventually. What other solution is there?
Without robotics/AI someone has to pay for your pension

If the top is too heavy stuff has to give
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It baffles me that we don't give more money to people to encourage having kids. Instead, we take away child benefit from the middle classes, and punish the poorer working classes and non-working classes for having more than 2. And then need immigration to make up the difference. Which we also try really hard to discourage.
 
cheesyboy said:
It baffles me that we don't give more money to people to encourage having kids. Instead, we take away child benefit from the middle classes, and punish the poorer working classes and non-working classes for having more than 2. And then need immigration to make up the difference. Which we also try really hard to discourage.
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Not really sure how you get around it. I feel. You'd have to give a massive hand out to make people not having kids for financial reasons change their mind (see S Korea)
Probably too much for short term politics vote winning


The curve ball for me is automation. Will we need that many people if automation takes too many jobs? Yet to see this happening.
 
413x said:
It's bound to mean no state pension eventually. What other solution is there?
Without robotics/AI someone has to pay for your pension

If the older demographic is too numerous services/pensions have to give
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Every time I tell my mates about the looming pension collapse they get all shouty and won't believe me.

An increase in pension qualifying age might stave it off for a while, but ultimately it has to fail without a huge increase in costs on the working population.

And try telling a 30 year old they will be paying that for 40 or more years before they qualify...
 
Dis86 said:
Youre neglecting average number of children being significantly higher too.
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Apparently, fertility rate for foreign born women in the UK, whilst higher than uk-born women, is still below replacement rate.


Per the ONS:
  • The estimated total fertility rate (TFR) for foreign-born women decreased in 2017 to 1.95 children per woman, the lowest level on record; figures are available from 2004.

  • The estimated TFR for UK-born women decreased in 2017 to 1.71 children per woman, the lowest level since 2005.
That's not a huge difference. And, anyway, we could do with more births.
 
cheesyboy said:
Apparently, fertility rate for foreign born women in the UK, whilst higher than uk-born women, is still below replacement rate.


Per the ONS:
  • The estimated total fertility rate (TFR) for foreign-born women decreased in 2017 to 1.95 children per woman, the lowest level on record; figures are available from 2004.

  • The estimated TFR for UK-born women decreased in 2017 to 1.71 children per woman, the lowest level since 2005.
That's not a huge difference. And, anyway, we could do with more births.
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Why could we do with more births? We're overpopulated.
 
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