I accept the early termination thing. It is after all why you're receiving a higher rate than a permanent employee.
I think that generally you'd be able to see it coming in terms of renewal / lapsing / early termination wouldn't you? I know that in my 10 years as an employee it's always been fairly obvious to me which contractors were going and staying and I assume it was to them too.
But yes it could come out of the blue.
1st to 2nd is often hard and IS affected by the time of year.
When are the peaks and troughs during the year?
As well as your skillset location is another important consideration. How far are you willing to travel? For me it's 1.5hrs each way per day. Some are happy to work away but I did enough of that in various perm roles to be over it!
I would be happy with up to 1.5 hours each way. That puts me in range of Manchester, Liverpool, Chester, Wrexham etc.
For Oracle Database the highest paying contracts appear to be in the big banks and financial institutions in Canary Wharf and the "City".
Locally I'm seeing £300-400 whereas they are paying £500-600 and upwards. However attempting to do the maths is looks like the extra would be burnt entirely on accommodation and Monday / Friday travel even as tax deductible expenses. Don't have children but don't think it would suite me anyway to be honest.
Worth noting that the IR35 landscape is changing.
From my research it seems like the big risk is with companies and agencies being responsible and liable for determining IR35 status some will just blanket everyone inside for safety.
You'd have to hope that this will lock them out of the best talent and they'll eventually come round. It will probably take a while for the industry to come up with a decent solution for managing the new IR35 changes but I suspect agencies and companies will soon find clever wording and tests to show that they're not inside IR35.
If it's true that 50% of vacancies end up within IR35 how will they fill them? Who wants to work on a contract basis with the pay of a permenant role? How can they hope to attract talent?
It's definitely uncertain but I can't imagine an IT industry that doesn't run projects by loading up with contractors for the build and then winding down to leave the BAU to in house.
Obviously my viewpoint is coming from a permenant employee so I could be wrong but I've worked with contractors for 10 years. I'm interested to hear what you all feel the industry would look like and what you personally would do if a large portion or majority of roles were trapped by IR35. I just don't think its feasible and the agencies, the contract wording etc will just evolve to stay ahead of it.