The Falklands thread

Biohazard said:
Or if you are too poor to play big world power, sit down and get your priorities right.
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Indeed... Although I wonder how much our "position" in the world helps in term of influence, revenue etc. That could well be disproportionately to "our" advantage compared to the UK's actual size. Not to mention employment, revenue and investment both directly and indirectly attributable to the UKs armed forces and defence industry.

What value do you put on the UK having a permanent seat and Veto on the UN security council (for example).
 
Athanor said:
Indeed... Although I wonder how much our "position" in the world helps in term of influence, revenue etc. That could well be disproportionately to "our" advantage compared to the UK's actual size. Not to mention employment, revenue and investment both directly and indirectly attributable to the UKs armed forces and defence industry.
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The defence industry remains intact even with a reduction in state footprint through export primarily or at least it should, I don't think investment in the UK macroeconomy is particularly wieghted on any notions of "might" but more yield on which ever zone or sector can provide.

Is military power connected to our economic yield? Looking at the state of the UK fiscal position it either isn't working or the power-influence isn't there.

Athanor said:
What value do you put on the UK having a permanent seat and Veto on the UN security council (for example).
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It would depend on the circumstances of its use, it is certainly "valuable" in theory in a political and tactical sense but I don't think it is sustainable in the long term and unilateral action could mean we come under a bit of renewed scrutiny.. maybe not but our power and influence has become weaker and it isn't a temporary blip there has been a declining withdrawal across the globe spanning decades.

Trying to attribute a cash value to a political implement is difficult, very difficult, tangible proceeds from our historic use would just not be there I would imagine.
 
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Biohazard said:
I see your thinking now, but alas I don't think we'll be getting a new revenue stream it's just an exponential increase in proportion to the resources required for the increasing security of the islanders. Or simply, it will scale in relative terms. I should add I doubt they would require an aircraft carrier constantly, so they wouldn't pay for one constantly and we can't afford one anyway.

The oil will make the islanders rich and that's about it.
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It's widely accepted that the Falklands have been under contributing for their defense which is expensive due to delicate political position that exists in the region. This is accepted because they're a small nation with little money to fund an army capable of protecting itself against the likes of Argentina. Everything suggests they are falling over themselves to contribute far more if they have the money. They will have the money if/when the oil starts flowing. Its a win win situation. The island get security and oil revenue, the UK government gets a boost to it's deference budget where assets can be used for the security of all. We will have aircraft carriers which they will benefit from. But as you say they are expensive, and they more than understand that.
 
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Well i've tried to avoid french wine and cheese ever since the beef debacle, is it time to boycott argentinian malbec and beef?
 
Stretch said:
It's widely accepted that the Falklands have been under contributing for their defense which is expensive due to delicate political position that exists in the region. This is accepted because they're a small nation with little money to fund an army capable of protecting itself against the likes of Argentina. Everything suggests they are falling over themselves to contribute far more if they have the money. They will have the money if/when the oil starts flowing. Its a win win situation. The island get security and oil revenue, the UK government gets a boost to it's deference budget where assets can be used for the security of all. We will have aircraft carriers which they will benefit from. But as you say they are expensive, and they more than understand that.
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What suggests they are falling over themself if the circumstances were there? Fund aircraft carriers and fleets of new fast jets?

Many British Overseas Territories do not contribute to any UK provided defence at all, we attack many foreign nations in defence of them and or their freedom so I'm not sure why these islands, and oil, would have to be an exception. If they want to contribute to the defence , that's their choice - given the economic crisis in the past and the long term outlook it would make sense for them to consolidate any funding for the benefit of the Islanders. The UK is their largest import market which would mean they would spend a lot of the money here over time if things remained static in terms of trade positions, and I suspect an investment vehicle for the sovereign Falklanders would be more likely. I think an investment fund would be attractive for their longevity as opposed to inflating UK military presence. Excluding the Falklands Defence Force, UK defence spending only accounted to a tiny fraction of the UK's GDP. If we lay the claim to the land and reserve defence, it is only right that we as the centre pay for it. If they want to contribute I'm sure the Treasury would accept but there is only a relative cost in having a defence posture there where there are benefits to our forces at the same time.
 
I think they will, they've had a hissy fit or two, no-ones really paid much attention to it, they will now go and sulk, it's a bit like children really.
 
fanny said:
do you think they will?
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I think they will heighten things out for another few months, then it will all die down, until some real oil production begins.

Then we will see. Either way, I do not see a full on war, or small scale conflict arising. I think deep down they know they have absolutely no chance of taking the Falklands by force.

Last time round, there was a very small UK force there, there is now quite a bit more, and their president is not stupid.
 
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