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adam cool dude said:
This is all theory though. Expected goals and all that isn't fact.

Fact is we have let in 33 goals which is 3rd best in the league and De Gea is only 3 away from top spot clean sheets with Liverpool's keeper in a better team.
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Yes it's theory, a very detailed theory looking at thousands and thousands of shots, providing a likelihood that they will result in a goal, based on thousands and thousands of goals and missed chances. It takes all variables out regarding the quality of teams, how defensive or attacking sides are, how many chances they give up, areas on the pitch they concede chances etc.

Based on how De Gea's performed this season (and he was worse last season), 11 of the other 19 sides would have conceded more goals had De Gea faced the shots their keepers faced.

Oh and Alisson's missed a quarter of the season and played in a far more attacking side and still kept 30% more clean sheets than De Gea :p
 
adam cool dude said:
This is all theory though. Expected goals and all that isn't fact.

Fact is we have let in 33 goals which is 3rd best in the league and De Gea is only 3 away from top spot clean sheets with Liverpool's keeper in a better team.
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Expected goals does give a better reflection of a keeper's individual performance level though.

An example that popped into my head (as it was a good year for Southampton) is the 14-15 season.

De Gea was award PFA Keeper of the Year

Hart, Fabianski, Forster, Mignolet, Courtois, Foster and Pantilimon all kept more clean sheets

Courtois, Forster and Szczesny/Ospina conceded less goals overall

Fabianski, Green, Adrian, Heaton, Pantilimon, Lloris and Guzan made more saves

Cech, Ospina, Lloris, Myhill, Harper, Fabianski, Forster and Heaton all had a higher save percentage

If you took broad numbers like that at face value, it's hard to see how De Gea was awarded best goalkeeper that season but numbers don't tell the whole story.

Unfortunately the xG stats aren't as readily available for that season but I suspect a big part of the reason for De Gea winning that award is that his goals conceded vs expected goals conceded ratio was very low, whether people had actual stats or just a general feeling for it.
 
adam cool dude said:
Surely if you see more of the ball as a keeper (lower down the league) you also have more chance of influencing the xg number as well?
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You need to look at the percentage difference between the xg and actual number of goals conceded. As you kind of say, teams that face fewer shots are less likely to to move the headline -/+ xg number by as much as a keeper that faces more shots. A good keeper at a poor side will beat xg by more (in terms of actual numbers) than an equally good keeper at a good side. Likewise a poor keeper in a poor side will be beaten by xg by more than an equally poor keeper at a good side.

For example. Liverpool have beaten xg by 7.72 goals and Palace have beaten xg by 9.34 goals. As a percentage of the goals conceded, Liverpool concede 24% fewer than expected and Palace just 18% fewer.
 
So, our final PL game vs Leicester and our FA cup tie with Chelsea are both games where the opposition have double the recovery time we do. Hopefully it plays to our favour in terms of momentum, but I think I’m in agreement with Ole that it’s not particularly fair...
 
Converge said:
So, our final PL game vs Leicester and our FA cup tie with Chelsea are both games where the opposition have double the recovery time we do. Hopefully it plays to our favour in terms of momentum, but I think I’m in agreement with Ole that it’s not particularly fair...
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On the flip side it could relieve pressure as Leicester play before we do and if they lose it could give a bit of positivity before the game. We have beaten Chelsea 3 times already this season and I truely believe both Ole and our team are superior to Chelsea and their manager.

I don't think resting is that much of an issue when players haven't played for 3+ months.
 
adam cool dude said:
On the flip side it could relieve pressure as Leicester play before we do and if they lose it could give a bit of positivity before the game. We have beaten Chelsea 3 times already this season and I truely believe both Ole and our team are superior to Chelsea and their manager.

I don't think resting is that much of an issue when players haven't played for 3+ months.
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My concern is Fernandes really, he's about the only player that doesn't seem to be being rested. He's instrumental to our play and is starting to look a little tired.
 
adam cool dude said:
I don't think resting is that much of an issue when players haven't played for 3+ months.
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Physically I tend to agree. Mentally is more likely to be the challenge. This team is not over endowed with players who have a lot of experience in the "clutch" moments at the end of the season. I'm still not convinced that we are totally over the fragility that has seen us capitulate in some matches. On the plus side Both Crystal Palace and Southampton have given us tough games and we have taken points despite not playing so well. However I don't see us capable of dominating the better teams in the middle of the pitch. Our front four is so potent thought that it hasn't mattered. I'm still not convinced that Pogba does enough for the team at times. Matic is playing well but with him and Pogba I see us getting out worked at times. Fred and McTominay don't give the creativity or platform for the front 3.

Having said all that to be in the running for two trophies and a CL place is ahead of expectation when you consider the dross we were playing 8 months ago.
 
Shamikebab said:
It doesn't matter how long you've rested for if you then have to play every 2/3 days.
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Its far worse. They will all have lost a fair bit of fitness and going from 0% to 150% of normal is really bad. Thats the reason they have added in the two "drinks" breaks and the increased subs.
 
Messi to United / New family interested in buying / United not spending any money / lots of players linked with move to United......all sells newspapers zzzzzzzz
Gets boring doesnt it.
 
father-ted said:
Messi to United / New family interested in buying / United not spending any money / lots of players linked with move to United......all sells newspapers zzzzzzzz
Gets boring doesnt it.
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Don’t really buy any transfer stories , until it’s a done deal. In that aspect been surprised how many deals Chelsea have completed.
 
well that was a humiliating weekend.

Chelsea conceded less goals to Liverpool and played with 10 men for 45 mins and 9 on occasions with Super Kepa between the sticks.

Still.. trying to find positives here ppls, help..
 
The positive would be that it was one match and the team are undercooked. However that's not really much comfort because United were playing the same way before the end of last season. Couldn't score, got outpressed and defended weakly. Nothing has changed. I'm a broken record on Pogba but I just think he is largely a negative influence on the team. Him and Fernandes doesn't work. Bruno played better without him. I think Solskjaer probably thought Pogba would be gone and got Fernandes as a replacement. Pogba hasn't had a decent game for months, neither has Rashford and they are persisted with as there is nothing better. Certainly the board at United are a shambles but you have to question the coaching when we are seeing the same failings not addressed tactically or in selection. I actually don't think Sancho solves the issue either. United don't play with the energy level and speed of so many other sides and until that changes I can't see us progressing.
 
Calpol said:
The positive would be that it was one match and the team are undercooked. However that's not really much comfort because United were playing the same way before the end of last season. Couldn't score, got outpressed and defended weakly. Nothing has changed. I'm a broken record on Pogba but I just think he is largely a negative influence on the team. Him and Fernandes doesn't work. Bruno played better without him. I think Solskjaer probably thought Pogba would be gone and got Fernandes as a replacement. Pogba hasn't had a decent game for months, neither has Rashford and they are persisted with as there is nothing better. Certainly the board at United are a shambles but you have to question the coaching when we are seeing the same failings not addressed tactically or in selection. I actually don't think Sancho solves the issue either. United don't play with the energy level and speed of so many other sides and until that changes I can't see us progressing.
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Undercooked? Wait is this a bbq competition or a game of football?

Rushford has been awful since we came back from covid. Yet no one has the cahones to drop him.

Pogba was actually decent at the end of the season.

De Gea though...
 
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