The tide may be turning in Somalia...

cleanbluesky · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:17

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061226/ap_on_re_af/somalia

It seems that Ethiopia's intervention has began to change the spread of the Islamic courts in Somalia...

The Somalian government have already been brash enough to demand surrender of the Islamic Courts yet the ugly prospect of terrorism has also been threatened

Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, leader of the Council of Islamic Courts' executive body, said the group had told its troops to withdraw from some areas.

"The war is entering a new phase," he said. "We will fight Ethiopia for a long, long time and we expect the war to go everyplace."

Ahmed declined to explain his comments in greater detail, but some Islamic leaders had threatened a guerrilla war to include suicide bombings in Ethiopia's capital.

Can no Islamist fight a fair war without involving civilians? Do things like that just not matter to them?

Perhaps this event will go down in history as the first successful military intervention against a national in the grip of Religious Nationalism

Zip · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:19

I was about to post something on this earlyer

It turns out Ethiopia have taken a strategic somalian town right on the border.
They also bombed the 2 main air Ports of Somalia

ETHIOPIAN troops have seized towns throughout southern and central Somalia in a rapid escalation of a three-day-old offensive against Islamic fundamentalists who have controlled most of the country for the past six months.
The better-armed Ethiopians have so far encountered no resistance from fighters of the fundamentalist Council of Islamic Courts. Ethiopian troops and Somali militiamen reportedly were advancing toward Jowhar, an Islamic fundamentalist stronghold 145km north of Mogadishu.

It was not clear whether the Ethiopians intend to seize Jowhar or press their campaign to Mogadishu.

Ethiopian officials said they have declared war on Somalia, and analysts said Ethiopian forces, equipped with tanks, heavy artillery and jet aircraft, would likely defeat the lightly armed Islamic fighters in direct combat.

But analysts said the Ethiopians would be unable to control Somalia's vast expanses and prolonged fighting would rally both Somalis and foreign fighters to the Islamic cause.

They suggested that pro-Christian Ethiopia's likely goal is to force the Islamic Courts to negotiate a power-sharing agreement with Somalia's weak, but internationally recognised transitional government headquarters at Baidoa.

"The goal is to break the Courts' military capacity and bring them back to the negotiating table from a position of weakness," said Matt Bryden, a consultant for the International Crisis Group. "Neither side can win this conflict."

Tension between Ethiopia, whose Christian-led government sees itself as a bulwark against the spread of radical Islam, and the Council of Islamic Courts has been building since June, when the CIC seized Mogadishu.

daz · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:22

Ethiopia versus Somalia in a war seems a bit like a cripple fight.

Zip · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:25

daz said:
Ethiopia versus Somalia in a war seems a bit like a cripple fight.

They usually end up being very dirty wars though.

ninja economist · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:26

daz said:
Ethiopia versus Somalia in a war seems a bit like a cripple fight.

All African nations do nothing but war over dirt farms anyway.

daz · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:27

Zip said:
They usually end up being very dirty wars though.

Yes, if anything rather than any kind of decisive victory it will go on for a long time claiming the lives of many of the young soldiers as well as civilians.

Zip · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:29

daz said:
Yes, if anything rather than any kind of decisive victory it will go on for a long time claiming the lives of many of the young soldiers as well as civilians.

Young Soldiers=11 and 12 year olds and even younger

Slime101 · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:34

Muslim/Islamic fundamentalists are the spawn of evil and a real nasty hinderence to all normal happy life on earth. They seem to think its their right to take over whatever where ever they like and sod everyone else.

They should be removed from the face of the earth without exception, shoot em, nuke em, just get rid of them - especially out of the UK.

Sirrel Squirrel · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:38

I had no idea Ethiopia had an army, I swear I read the other day that Ethiopia had carried out air strikes on Somalia, how the hell can they afford planes!

Glaucus · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:41

Sirrel Squirrel said:
I had no idea Ethiopia had an army, I swear I read the other day that Ethiopia had carried out air strikes on Somalia, how the hell can they afford planes!

as with most 3rd world countries there not inheritantly poor. many have huge natural resources, farming land or other good cash crops. However most goes to the "government" and there's not the infrastructure to get to the wealth and spread it.

daz · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:46

The money just goes on weapons and ammunition rather than feeding or educating the population...

(And keeping the top few in lives of luxury)

One might really compare the systems of government to the monarchies of medieval europe with a small ruling elite living in luxury and poor majority living in poverty. Whilst taxing the poor to fund the wars at the whim of the monarch.

cleanbluesky · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:50

daz said:
(And keeping the top few in lives of luxury)

Yeah, much like any competing rulers - I'm surprised that certain apologists believe that an 'insurgency' somehow represents the people when likely they will be exactly as selfish as those they depose

Sirrel Squirrel · 26 Dec 2006 at 15:55

That's quite a sad state of affairs

Jono · 26 Dec 2006 at 16:17

Sirrel Squirrel said:
That's quite a sad state of affairs

Maybe so, just let them wipe each other out imo.

Indy500 · 26 Dec 2006 at 16:53

The arms dealers and defense contractors will be enjoying record profits again this year..

robmiller · 26 Dec 2006 at 16:57

Sirrel Squirrel said:
I had no idea Ethiopia had an army, I swear I read the other day that Ethiopia had carried out air strikes on Somalia, how the hell can they afford planes!

Ethiopia have loooooads of planes, they're all Russian ones iirc. Pretty old, but not bad at all by African standards.

afraser2k · 26 Dec 2006 at 17:04

Ethiopia have a fairly decent army for an African nation and have also been in dispute with Eritrea so should have some experience for fighting against the Islamic Courts. There have also been accusations that Ethiopia have been involved in Somalia for the last few months and it's only now that the world is taking notice.

I don't think the world/UN will do much there either as the US is backing the former Somalian government as well as some of the warlords in the region, purely to keep the Islamic Courts in check (failing as usual). What many fail to realise is that most of the Somalian population is Muslim and the Courts sprang up from popular support against the warlords and exiled government.

clv101 · 26 Dec 2006 at 17:09

cleanbluesky said:
Perhaps this event will go down in history as the first successful military intervention against a national in the grip of Religious Nationalism

It's far too early to be talking about success.

daz said:
Ethiopia versus Somalia in a war seems a bit like a cripple fight.

I think you'll find both have extremely deadly armies.

daz · 26 Dec 2006 at 17:13

clv101 said:
I think you'll find both have extremely deadly armies.

See my post after that for more serious thoughts regarding the war.

@if ®afiq · 26 Dec 2006 at 18:34

afraser2k said:
What many fail to realise is that most of the Somalian population is Muslim and the Courts sprang up from popular support against the warlords and exiled government.

As do many people on these forums.

The Courts are the choice of the people over the US backed warlords and the current government....but lets not get little things like what the Somalians want get in the way of what we in the West want.