Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

price may not rise that much.

Sounds like the risk/reward ratio would be better after they find oil not before

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RRL builds further on its gains but volume is half yesterdays again could that mean its stalling.
Computer says no, its bullish short and longer term http://uk.stoxline.com/q_uk.php?s=rrl

Bought BP at close yesterday and sold today at its highs. It could continue up but I should have bought more to hold, Im all out again

BP on the NYSE shows itself more clearly, uptrend continues and its about midway. I would guess a short term range of about 476 to 510. If lucky to catch either end that'd be nice to trade.
431p is the 200dma and not an unreasonable possibility either


Does anyone own HER, they been going down this year while price of silver recovers from 26 to new highs
 
Yeah I have a bit of HER. Away with work for two weeks though so hard to follow stock market (especially when your asleep when it's open).

HMV are painful for me :(
 
I will have to read up on HER, another CNR maybe.


I just noticed the volume on RRL is not 20mil but 105 mil. Sure it said different earlier but a few places say it. Confirms this rise much better and some news to fit with the continual appreciation is:

'Drilling contractors from UK have been paid a fee for mobilisation and will arrive Puntland and start drilling April/May.'

This was from a respected poster on ADVFN yesterday with his notes below from a presentation by RRL director Peter Landau in London on Tuesday evening (as ever DYOR):

johnweaver - 2 Mar'11 - 09:04 - 22672 of 22682

My notes on presentation by Peter Landau 01March. Notes and my views, usual caveats, DYOR more info on Website. Make up your own mind please it's your money.
01 02 2011 Range Resources RRL
Mkt cap. £~190m @ 16.65p. (Australian 30c) Cash £17m, Shareholders 73% AiM. Very liquid.
Assets: Puntland; Oil in Place 905mn barrels, this is a calculated figure by petroleum geologists based on their opinion of the geology and the seismic data available. The gross figure is then discounted heavily and gives a value of 14cents per share.
Drilling contractors from UK have been paid a fee for mobilisation and will arrive Puntland and start drilling April/May.
This is a lower risk play than many realise. Geological risk is about as low as any oil exploration can be. Finance risk is reduced by having funded partners. Management have completed the Seismic Survey and employ contractors, consultants and own staff who are experienced and financially stable. As the drill contractor is.
Political Risk is fully understood, including the assistance of a local politician. The seismic survey which had lines of vehicles working out in remote areas encountered no problems.

Republic of Georgia: Oil in Place, 2bn barrels, Seismic indicates 68 structures that could be oil bearing. Six targets have been identified with estimated 728mbarrels in place. Work continuing to select drill sites. Helium tests on the ground are positive. Helium is released through the ground by hydrocarbons in underlying deposits. The contractor was very confident of his work, but this is not a fool proof test for high quantities.

South Texas: Significant Reserves, 7m barrels oil + 50bn cu ft. of gas. Cash-flow potential $250/350,000 per month after fraccing and extra wells are drilled and brought into production this year.
East Texas: Historically prolific at shallow depths. Information bought by company indicates that a lower formation with Oil is present; work continues to drill and bring this to production.

Trinidad: Range now owns 15% of this project of 20+ wells that need work overs. There is a fully equipped drilling company ‘in house’ eager to start this work that will produce, potentially 600+ barrels per day per well. Again there is the expectation of deeper structures to drill.
The Trinidad company, Soca, will be listing on AiM as soon as it has finalised the administrative work associated with setting up a new company of about $90million cap.


ShugMonkey - 2 Mar'11 - 09:30 - 22677 of 22682

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?display=discussion&code=cotn:RRL.L

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http://www.moneyam.com/action/charts/basic
 
Hoping for good things from MVC in the next couple of days. Name change to Orogen Gold PLC on Monday, AGM today to rubber stamp decision, change of industry to mining, with a gold mine being explored at the moment.

With luck the BOD will release the news on all counts starting Monday, fingers crossed for a good rise.

Of course, with everything DYOR before investing!
 
Must be a lot of happy people who had their fingers burnt on the first spike as long as they didn't sell :p
 
Saerum (SAR) a speculative buy at 2.2p

Says James Faulkner of WatsHot.com

Cancer drug developer Saerum (SAR) was first tipped on WatsHot.com just over 2 weeks ago. Since then the share price has increased by 57%! But with encouraging recent trial data and the strong possibility of a lucrative partnership with a major pharma group, WatsHot editor James Faulkner believes the share price could have a long way still to go.

Introduction

Recent positive trial data from cancer drug developer Sareum (SAR) sparked a buying frenzy, with the shares changing hands at 4.6p at one point, up from just 0.25p a few days earlier! So, was all this a flash in the pan or the start of something big? I am inclined to go for the latter, as Aurora+FLT3 Kinase is but one of five drug discovery programmes Sareum is actively developing at the moment - and it isn't even the most advanced! The potential on offer here is now being uncovered by the market, and the retracement back to current levels offers an opportunity for new investors to get on board ahead of the commercialisation agreements that will surely follow the recent results. Speculative buy, at 2.2p.

Operating Model and Portfolio

Sareum's research, which is all outsourced to third party laboratories, is focused on 'targeted small molecule' therapies, whereby the aim is to disrupt specific biochemical processes involved in tumour growth through inhibiting a class of enzymes called kinases. Sareum's approach is superior to conventional treatments such as radiotherapy or chemotherapy because - as the name suggests - it is more targeted and therefore minimises the impact on normal cells.

In May 2010, Sareum launched its "SKIL" technology platform, which includes a patent-protected molecular core and the intellectual know-how to fine-tune these molecules into inhibitors of a wide range of kinase enzymes. Sareum's research is focused on building its portfolio of data on these molecules in order to better attract potential licencees.

Sareum has developed seven drug discovery programmes (five of which are active) that are now at various stages of pre-clinical development. The Checkpoint Kinase 1 (Chk1) Programme - its most advanced - has been developed in
a mutual programme with leading research organisations the Institute of Cancer Research (ICR) and Cancer Research Technology Ltd (CRT). It is close to completion in preclinical scientific terms for outlicensing, with several Chk1 inhibitors having shown efficacy in 'in vivo' (i.e. within the living) models. Sareum expects it will soon be able to nominate a candidate compound for Chk1 and sign a licensing deal with an organisation who will take it through the final pre-clinical stage and into phase I trials.

The latest update on this programme, released today, announced that "the combination of a collaboration Chk1 inhibitor, dosed via the oral route, in combination with a chemotherapeutic, gemcitabine, demonstrates a greater than two-fold reduction in cancer growth rate compared to treatment with the same dose of gemcitabine without the Chk1 inhibitor". Furthermore, other pre-clinical in-vivo studies conducted for the programme have shown that the collaboration Chk1 inhibitor, dosed alone, can reduce cancer growth in models of AML (acute myeloid leukaemia) and neuroblastoma (a childhood cancer). Indeed, certain cancers, such as these, "are believed to be dependent on Chk1 for survival".

Other programmes currently under development include the Aurora Kinase programme, aimed at preventing mitosis (cell division) in tumour cells; the FLT4 Kinase programme (see below), aimed at preventing tumour spread (metastasis); and the FLT3 Kinase programme, aimed at treating Acute Myeloid leukaemia (AML) and inflammatory diseases such as multiple sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis. There are also three other programmes on hold, but these need not concern us at this stage.


Aurora+FLT3 Kinase - what's all the fuss about?

On 7th February Sareum announced the results of a recent pre-clinical in-vivo study for its Aurora+FLT3 Kinase programme, which is targeting acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), the most common form of adult leukaemia. The results "showed that the leukaemia regressed to such an extent that no detectable cancer could be found in any of the cases treated (ten in total) with a Sareum compound".

These are very positive results which, crucially, "compare very favourably with those from similar pre-clinical studies published for Aurora kinase inhibitors currently undergoing clinical trials". Following the massive volumes of shares traded on the back of these results, the company was compelled to comment that it was NOT "in advanced stages of discussion with a potential licencing partner and there can be no certainty that the announcement of these results will lead to a licencing agreement being entered into". HOWEVER, it added that "the results of the study have, in the ordinary course of business, been sent to potential licencing partners" to "determine their interest" in the data. I think we can take that as a euphemism for 'there are plenty of pharma companies sniffing round this'.

Upside Potential

Following the recent results from the Sareum's Aurora+FLT3 Kinase programme, broker Hybridan commented that "Major pharmaceuticals groups have a well-known need to build their cancer drug pipelines, as well as the need to bring drugs to market quickly. Sareum is well positioned to fund and execute its ongoing business plan of further development and commercialization of its drug cancer programs." As yet, none of Sareum's programmes have been partnered up, but that should soon change. In recent years, up-front payments in partnership deals have ranged anywhere between $5 million and $230 million, whilst further 'milestone' payments have been in the range of $70 million to $660 million. It is not hard to imagine what kind of effect such a deal would have on a company with a market cap of under GBP20 million.

At this point it is worth pointing out that while cancer drugs are the 'holy grail' of medicine, the majority of compounds fail to make it through to commercialisation. This is indeed a very risky business. That said, the potential rewards are huge.

The firm opportunistically raised GBP500k through a placing on the back of the euphoria following the Aurora+FLT3 Kinase results, and whilst this was at a 40% discount to the then prevailing price, the news was well received by the market, which drove the shares higher. The firm now reckons it has enough cash to last between one and two years (not bad considering the rates at which some of the other biotech firms burn money). The funds raised will be put to use adding data to the Aurora+FLT3 programme to bring it up to the clinical stage. Sareum's immediate future looks very healthy indeed, and it is worth a speculative buy at 2.2p.


FT not keen on RRL :

Earlier this week we had RRL management in for a meeting, although I’d have to say I wasn’t overly impressed.

The group has a diverse range of assets in Somalia, the US, Georgia and Trinidad. Undoubtedly the greatest excitement surrounds the Somalia licence, where the group is due to participate in two exploration wells commencing this summer

RRL has a 20% interest in the licence onshore Puntland (the northern part of Somalia), with both wells believed to have OIP of over 1bn barrels. However these are high-risk wells, operating in a highly risky environment


Assuming a 40% recovery factor on a 1bn barrel OIP discovery, and ascribing $5/bbl on an NPV basis (which is arguably generous), we’d get to around 18p/share unrisked, i.e. below the current share price of 21p/share

. Even giving some credit for the other three areas I reckon we might get to around 30p/share at a push, but I’d stress that this is unrisked and assumes material success.

The shares have quadrupled since November in anticipation of the imminent Puntland drilling, but if I was a punter in this one I’d be taking profits.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/03/04/505036/markets-live/
 
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Wow, I hadn't looked at them since I got out, didn't realise they'd gone down that far.

Any reason (if you don't mind me asking that is) why you didn't get out sooner, or are you in for long haul, so don't mind a ride ?


Any thoughts on RRR at the moment people ?

Down on RGM, the worst performer for me (or rather not performing :p )
 
Wow, I hadn't looked at them since I got out, didn't realise they'd gone down that far.

Any reason (if you don't mind me asking that is) why you didn't get out sooner, or are you in for long haul, so don't mind a ride ?

Well I really should have sold ages ago. I was away and they fell in price quite a lot, I only had 10k invested originally but kept buying more to bring down my average.

I have done very well with them in the past but this time I think I will be stuck waiting for it to go up for some time now. Its really not worth me selling as I dont need the cash at the moment. They are up another 15% today :)
 
Thats a nice way to look at it really, if you don't need it then don't panic. ....... then (like RRL) you get a nice little suprise a few weeks (read; months) later ;)
 
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