Soldato
trying to buy € with £ :/
Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
Not sure at the moment... But over the last X months it's all been one direction hasn't it!
Brown keeps telling us our economy is super strong, but the $ and € seem to suggest otherwise don't they
Soldato
This isn't a fact. If you're a good trader and apply common sense and research, no you won't.
Soldato
it's risen slightly today on the back of good manufacturing news, unexpected house price rise and the prospect that the ECB will cut interest rates.
I've got my man to push the button if it hits €1.08
I've got my man to push the button if it hits €1.08
This has to be the most optimistic bull market prediction I've ever seen. If you're so sure, I think a few index CFDs may well do you good sir. It's total rubbish, however. You simply have no idea how far off the fundamentals you are there.
Always been a bit wary of the stock market. A family friend of ours used to work in the city on the stockmarket. Went to a lunchbreak for an hour one day, only to come back and find out he'd lost £500,000
Okay, if your friend was a trader, then this wouldn't have happened. Full stop. Traders do not simply walk out without either closing out or getting cover.
However, a £500,000 loss in one day isn't necessarily unheard of either. As a % loss, it's probably small. He may well have made £1,000,000 in the rest of the week.
Easier said than done. Most people this thread is targeted at are casual retail 'investors'. Regardless of the research you do and the common sense you apply, there are still further factors to think about here. For example, greed and not cutting your losses. This could make you a net loss overall on its own and if a lot of money is involved, these factors become very strong.
I think it's important to make a distinction here though. Many people think trading and investing are the same thing. They're not. Buying and holding is investing. Trading can be a number of other things.
Don't forget the magic ingredient.... LUCK! There is always the risk of unforeseen issues...
Soldato
Oh, absolutely - I will not pretend there isn't. All research and sense do is build more odds in your favour, but you will never have a absolutely guaranteed certainty (and if you do, you probably do illegally).
Soldato
I class this as common sense, really. If someone is going to 'dabble' (I HATE that word) or 'try things out' in the stock markets without putting the hours in behind their money, then they deserve to lose it all to people like me.
I'm not sure why it is. The OP clearly uses the term "trading".
Soldato
- Joined
- 7 Feb 2004
- Posts
- 3,072
A couple of weeks ago I was looking at buying a couple of grand in Barclays shares at 60p per share and thinking I should be buying these, IF they don't go bust surely they'll be at a few quid in a couple of years. Also I thought I'd be more annoyed if they did well and didn't invest than if I did invest and it all went wrong.
I was all set to buy and I thought I'd just do a bit more research and nearly all the papers and financial websites were saying it was a sell. I thought they obviously know something I don't so bottled it.
Within a week they had tripled in value, I was mortified, I felt like I'd just thrown away 4 grand.
So a few days ago I spunked 2 grand on RBS shares and 2 grand on Lloyds Bank, again taking the common sense approach that surely in a couple of years RBS shares won't be at 25p but hopefully considerably more. I'm also going to put another few grand in house building, probably Taylor Wimpey and Barrets.
The thing is I've got a few grand in the bank and if it all goes wrong I'll be annoyed but not as mad if I didn't and they shot up.
Hopefully the worst of the turmoil in the banking sector is over and I'm thinking if they've made it this far they should be able to ride it out, which I think will be at least another 18 months.
I was all set to buy and I thought I'd just do a bit more research and nearly all the papers and financial websites were saying it was a sell. I thought they obviously know something I don't so bottled it.
Within a week they had tripled in value, I was mortified, I felt like I'd just thrown away 4 grand.
So a few days ago I spunked 2 grand on RBS shares and 2 grand on Lloyds Bank, again taking the common sense approach that surely in a couple of years RBS shares won't be at 25p but hopefully considerably more. I'm also going to put another few grand in house building, probably Taylor Wimpey and Barrets.
The thing is I've got a few grand in the bank and if it all goes wrong I'll be annoyed but not as mad if I didn't and they shot up.
Hopefully the worst of the turmoil in the banking sector is over and I'm thinking if they've made it this far they should be able to ride it out, which I think will be at least another 18 months.
Question to the OP and anyone else who trades personally...
How can you expect your research to be able to beat that of the banks massive research departments? Do you think that you can see things that they miss or that you have developed models better than the ones that have cost them billions to develop?
This seems a genuine and common question so I'm interested to hear your thoughts on it
How can you expect your research to be able to beat that of the banks massive research departments? Do you think that you can see things that they miss or that you have developed models better than the ones that have cost them billions to develop?
This seems a genuine and common question so I'm interested to hear your thoughts on it
True
Compound this with the fact that there is so much mis-information out there and a lot of people will have no hope at all. Most of the trading forums out there are simply a case of the blind leading the blind. People who've read a few books on "technical analysis" and have opened a spread betting account so they can go long when the magic line crosses the other magic line or when some magic pattern seems to be appearing. A lot of if seems to sound almost scientific yet most of the practitioners are too lazy to bother with any real research into the purported techniques.
Personally I would have put all that money against a morgage, or into a pension... I really have been made to feel that cynical about it!
Permabanned
Do you reckon that he doesn't know that?
...and also the information (prices) you see are typically well behind those that the 'professionals' see.
What makes you think that the research conducted by speculators is in any way comparable in the sense that it has to 'beat' research conducted by banks? Also since when has any bank spent anything in the region of 'billions' on models - quants are well paid, yes, but not *that* well paid.
Banks do have prop desks, mostly high frequency stuff mind, but most of the bank's 'trading' is market making/execution stuff - they earn money as market makers from providing a bid/offer and they have sales traders who generate margin/commission from executing client orders. They are not in the business of trying to bet money on the price of XYZ in x period of time.
Associate
To be honest, that's what I was told by my step-dad. He does have a habit of exaggerating the truth (I don't know anything about the stock market really so I have no idea what's Bs and what isn't). I've not spoken to the actual guy himself about it. All I do know is that he lost that amount of money in a very short amount of time.
Soldato
- Joined
- 7 Feb 2004
- Posts
- 3,072
It's a good question and I thought that myself.
I am so far down the food chain the share price will already have been affected by those in the know way before I find out so I'm now doing the opposite, I'm not doing any research I'm just using a common sense approach, I'm confident banking shares will rise again, it might take a while but I'm sure they will, house builders shares will rise again. The economy is in a low, medium to long term the only way it will go is upwards, whatever shares you held 18 months ago have taken a huge hit. Kingston Communications was trading at £18, they're now at 18p, there's a good chance in a years time they'll be at least 50p, I was in Hull the other day and Kingston Comms are still a large company, they had plenty of vans bombing about and I think will be fine medium to long term.
So basically for me it's more about timing and I believe now is a good time to invest, and more importantly I am prepared to loose, if it all goes wrong my attitude will be at least I've had a go.
Soldato
Your first research was probably correct. Barclay is going up rapidly because of the end of tax year for traders and hedge funds. Based on EPS Barclays stock at the moment is very much overvalued at close to 170p per share. You can almost bet there will be sudden drop on Friday before end or Monday morning, possibly even short selling split as much as 30%, just like there wass unexplainable 10% jump over night.
Associate
Since the beginning of the year i started working regular afters shifts so i could keep my eye on the stock markets, i would never pack my full time job in though, as tempting as it might be!
I was one of the lucky ones who bought Barclays shares at a low price: 40000@62p. Today they're worth £1.70, so a nice £43000 profit in 3months! Not bad for a casual trader
I was one of the lucky ones who bought Barclays shares at a low price: 40000@62p. Today they're worth £1.70, so a nice £43000 profit in 3months! Not bad for a casual trader