Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[dowie]

no, it is just a flight to safety - UK govt debt is seen as safe so money has flowed there and yields decreased as a result, conversely UK corporate bonds have seen their yields increase slightly thanks to the uncertainty of brexit

Spanish and Italian govt bonds have seen their yields increase further as money flows away from them

 

[muon]

Is this the opposite you would expect? If UK was seen as more risky an investment the yields would go up wouldn't they, or is the market expectation that Brexit will actually have a bigger negative impact on the other economies?

It is because it is the safest asset within the UK. So the prices of the assets are rising, making the yield lower.

Not every investor is allowed or would like to invest in a foreign denominated asset in the short term. That introduces currency risk, so they resort to government debt.

The Bank of England also promised to pump in a lot of money and QE usually purchases government debt.

As dowie said, everything else increases.

 

[mdb08]

This may sound like a silly question, but I'm just trying to get my head around it. If I was to buy £1000 worth of shares in a company, and hl online quote £11.95 per deal. Would this mean I pay £11.95 to purchase the shares and then when I choose to sell them I pay an additional £11.95? Equally, after that would there be more fee's that aren't specifically obvious.

Thanks!

 

[dowie]

yup... other fees you'll have to read through the contract but things like transferring your shares to another broker, sending you the certificates (if you're like one of those old folks who likes to keep them at home) etc..etc..

with some brokers like interactive brokers you'll have a a fee taken if there isn't a minimum level of activity in the account - though that is more because they're aimed at more active investors/traders and thus have lower commissions and provide more data, tools etc..

 

[mdb08]

yup... other fees you'll have to read through the contract but things like transferring your shares to another broker, sending you the certificates (if you're like one of those old folks who likes to keep them at home) etc..etc..

with some brokers like interactive brokers you'll have a a fee taken if there isn't a minimum level of activity in the account - though that is more because they're aimed at more active investors/traders and thus have lower commissions and provide more data, tools etc..

So any suggestions on how to take advantage of these low prices in bank shares?

 

[dowie]

So any suggestions on how to take advantage of these low prices in bank shares?

well if you think they will go up then buy if you think they're going to fall further then sell

not sure what else there is to say regarding that

 

[MoRT489]

You just need to be confident that the shares will increase in value again by more than the cost of the various fees that you'll incur.

GBP is lower again this morning, anyone got a prediction on how low it could go vs USD? I'd be interested in links to any economist/investor predictions on this. Where do you guys look for your Forex news?

 

[Glaucus]

that's why I went with funds, far far cheaper fees and a better spread in the portfolio for us newbies and small money people.

 

[stuman]

The pound will be flat with the euro this time next month. The dollar will settle at around 1.15.

Then we will see it rise but only marginally over the next two decades.

 

[Simon]

This may sound like a silly question, but I'm just trying to get my head around it. If I was to buy £1000 worth of shares in a company, and hl online quote £11.95 per deal. Would this mean I pay £11.95 to purchase the shares and then when I choose to sell them I pay an additional £11.95? Equally, after that would there be more fee's that aren't specifically obvious.

Thanks!

Stamp duty too when you buy shares that are liable for stamp duty.

 

[Glaucus]

The pound will be flat with the euro this time next month. The dollar will settle at around 1.15.

Then we will see it rise but only marginally over the next two decades.

that's confident if or when article 50 is enacted, I would expect it to take another pounding.

 

[Narj]

that's why I went with funds, far far cheaper fees and a better spread in the portfolio for us newbies and small money people.

I'm looking at chucking some money into funds for the medium-long term (ie: 5-10 years) seeing as lots of shares are looking damned cheap now. Obviously not gambling more than I can afford to lose.

 

[MoRT489]

The pound will be flat with the euro this time next month. The dollar will settle at around 1.15.

Then we will see it rise but only marginally over the next two decades.

So pessimistic! Is that your own prediction or based on some analysis/market speculation? I heard from Barclays and DB pre-Brexit that they predicted 1.15 and 1.24 respectively. Credit Suisse and Societe Generale are speculating that it will fall into the 1.20s but UBS are saying unlikely to go below 1.30, with some analysts saying the low will hold through H2 2016..

 

[Glaucus]

now 1.199 eur to the £

 

[stuman]

So pessimistic! Is that your own prediction or based on some analysis/market speculation? I heard from Barclays and DB pre-Brexit that they predicted 1.15 and 1.24 respectively. Credit Suisse and Societe Generale are speculating that it will fall into the 1.20s but UBS are saying unlikely to go below 1.30, with some analysts saying the low will hold through H2 2016..

Yeah, just me with my dowsing stick. Saw the reports from Barclays, then adjusted it for posativety that banks and large multinationals have to show to help bolster trust in the market until they have exit strategies in place

 

[Steedie]

Seriously tempted to dump a few grand into Taylor Wimpey shares

 

[englishpremier]

Barclays and BoS both suspended from trading. Not looking good there. I was considering getting in once they'd fallen far enough.

 

[silversurfer]

The pound will be flat with the euro this time next month. The dollar will settle at around 1.15.

Then we will see it rise but only marginally over the next two decades.

This depends on business done, right this moment we are in the EU still and speculation has the market moving the price. Tons of QE on every side and we got a trade defecit, it makes us vulnerable to this.
We can go back to 2 dollars to the pound, main thing is Dollars are used in the world as a proxy world currency and Sterling is just a minor reserve by various central banks.
imo it does depend which economy does better with exports, that would be factual where as QE makes it all opinion and we get these wild swings.

Of course it was a terrible idea to leave EU, until proof appears otherwise thats the sentiment but not two decades of it! Eventually something else will move the market, EU has to deal with Greece again very soon

With the banks I think Lloyds and STAN which both pay a dividend could be ok. I was liking Lloyds at 20 to 50 previously so I'll add regular now I guess, they are basically depending on mortgage and normal highstreet for profits. One of the largest such banks in the world and their capital ratio is good afaik, the boss is a sensible type. Seems reasonable to consider

STAN is in emerging markets, thats more complicated but it could appear better for having its assets and profits abroad. Main thing is if they get growth not too much risk and debt problems

Barclays is a wallstreet bank, its not just UK. Any of these companies hauling in profits from abroad should stablise I guess

 

[Narj]

Barclays and BoS both suspended from trading. Not looking good there. I was considering getting in once they'd fallen far enough.

I was thinking of loading up with some BARC soon too for a bit of a gamble.

 

[PhysicsMan94]

What do you guys make of this? Seems like a stealthy bank bailout by the ECB on Friday, to the tune of almost $444bn - that's more than the TARP bailout of banks in the US in 2008, in a single day.