Triple-lock on pensions will stay. Pensions will increase when earnings have decreased

[RandomMonkeH]

Remember when there was absolutely going to be an 18% hike in pensions due to the triple lock and nothing could be done to stop it?

So Boris Johnson overruled the chancellor and the triple lock on pensions will stay intact. This means in a year that earnings of people in the country are down, younger people are the most affected, pensioners will see their income go up.
Next year, because of furlough ending and returning to more a normal society, wages will increase but pensions will also increase by somewhere between 8% to 18%, due to the triple lock system.

It will not increase by 18%, wages will most likely be averaged over two years to even out the covid anomalies.
Nobody with an ounce of common sense or financial knowledge truly expects there to be an 18% rise in state pension.

No Rishi wanted to drop the triple lock next year and make it a double lock to take account of the one off special circumstances of Covid. This has been overuled by Boris now and the triple lock stays for next year.

The 18% is an artificial statistical spike - nobody is actually going to receive an 18% wage increase in real terms.

The cynic in me tells me the 18% is a fishing trip to see if they could get away with a double lock and make the eventual lower increase more palatable to voters. My guess is < 3.9%

Pepperidge farm remembers.
2.5% second year running. Told ya so.

 

[LeMson]

lying tories lulz

 

[Tefal]

Now it's time to watch the labour voters who were against the lock suddenly be in favour of it

 

[Tefal]

I’ll come back to this since the conversation has turned sensible again .

Greebo has a valid point about pensions and voting - it wins seats for sure if your pro OAP’s

65+ was a 74% turn out
18-24 was a 47% turn out

Last G E - it’s a massive difference .


https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election

I think there is a bigger problem for late born Millennials and most of generation Z than how much their state pension will be - Who will fund their housing costs ?

If so many of them as they say can’t save for a house ( let alone a pension ) as they pay sky high rents to private landlords then who pays their rent in old age ?

Well then they'll be the pensioner vote

 

[Greebo]

Remember when there was absolutely going to be an 18% hike in pensions due to the triple lock and nothing could be done to stop it?










Pepperidge farm remembers.
2.5% second year running. Told ya so.

My point was they could have dropped it last year rather than absolutely state it was staying and wouldnt be dropped and even passed it through the HoC. We all knew that it would never stand that kind of increase this year so why even try to lie to us?

But it was well and truly buried under yesterdays announcement. A commentator said today the remocal of the pension lock would have been headline news in every paper and today itsjust a small footnote

 

[KNiVES]

I have no party affiliation but I am sad the triple lock isn't in place this year. I worry about my elderly mum all the time and I would have loved her getting an 8% bump to her pension.

 

[R.P.L]

Now it's time to watch the labour voters who were against the lock suddenly be in favour of it

Politics 101.

 

[Hagar]

My point was they could have dropped it last year rather than absolutely state it was staying and wouldnt be dropped and even passed it through the HoC. We all knew that it would never stand that kind of increase this year so why even try to lie to us?

But it was well and truly buried under yesterdays announcement. A commentator said today the remocal of the pension lock would have been headline news in every paper and today itsjust a small footnote

Yes, that 8% compounded over a decade or two could have made the pension much more interesting for the following generations

 

[413x]

That's why younger people are worried, they're being milked dry right now, and the social systems that they're paying into right now have no chance of surviving in the long term, when they're going to be beneficiaries. No party addresses the concerns of young people, that's why they're disconnected with politics and don't vote.

I personally have planned for my life assuming there will be no NHS, no social care and no state pension by the time I get to the retirement age. So it's either working until I die, or I need to save several million pounds for a chance of retiring without burdening my children, like Americans do.

Have also this mindset.
You can see it coming. Unless there's something significantly new (like literal robot slaves, or we can do away with capitalism) we are on the decline.

You can't milk much more out of the next generations. While leaving the mega rich untouched. Pension and NHS will soon be unaffordable.

We are in negative feedback loop territory now. Take more from young now, they we have less when we are older. Rinse and repeat.

More and more people are going to be renting when they are pension age. In this case the welfare bill will be unaffordable.
So no pension.

But I guess by that point people will have voted for a non tory party. But still, where will the money come from?

Only way I can see things going is a big big house price correction. As its the cost of living thats devastating. If a tiny percentage of people own it will be wanted too. At that point all bets are off.

 

[chrcoluk]

Building social homes over the long term will pay itself back, there is extraordinary amounts of money right now been funnelled to private landlords via LHA.

That in term will give people more spending power who otherwise would have been private tenants, which gives a bit of headroom, otherwise its a combination of borrowing and tax increases.

 

[FoxEye]

Have also this mindset.
You can see it coming. Unless there's something significantly new (like literal robot slaves, or we can do away with capitalism) we are on the decline.

You can't milk much more out of the next generations. While leaving the mega rich untouched. Pension and NHS will soon be unaffordable.

We are in negative feedback loop territory now. Take more from young now, they we have less when we are older. Rinse and repeat.

More and more people are going to be renting when they are pension age. In this case the welfare bill will be unaffordable.
So no pension.

But I guess by that point people will have voted for a non tory party. But still, where will the money come from?

Only way I can see things going is a big big house price correction. As its the cost of living thats devastating. If a tiny percentage of people own it will be wanted too. At that point all bets are off.

A number of factions in the Tory party want the pension age to rise to 75 within the next 15 years. (It should surprise no-one that IDS is all for it. Having killed many disabled people already, he now seeks to spread misery elsewhere.)

We'll go back to work till you die for many people.

One thing is certain, society is going to change, and probably quite radically, in the not-so-distant future. I think we're going to see a lot more extremes. Even more extreme wealth for the top 1%, and a descent into extreme poverty for the bottom 50%.

The idea that some still cling to - that life is improving top-to-bottom - that myth will be blown wide open before too long. What is unknown is if the people will be able to rise up against it. Or if those at the top have such complete control over literally everything - from the money you receive to the roof over your head to the food you eat - that nobody will be able to revolt anyhow. Subsistence is better than death?

 

[413x]

A number of factions in the Tory party want the pension age to rise to 75 within the next 15 years. (It should surprise no-one that IDS is all for it. Having killed many disabled people already, he now seeks to spread misery elsewhere.)

We'll go back to work till you die for many people.

One thing is certain, society is going to change, and probably quite radically, in the not-so-distant future. I think we're going to see a lot more extremes. Even more extreme wealth for the top 1%, and a descent into extreme poverty for the bottom 50%.

The idea that some still cling to - that life is improving top-to-bottom - that myth will be blown wide open before too long. What is unknown is if the people will be able to rise up against it. Or if those at the top have such complete control over literally everything - from the money you receive to the roof over your head to the food you eat - that nobody will be able to revolt anyhow. Subsistence is better than death?

Something will give.
Once you start to get a majority near the poor line you'll see parties that want to rock the apple cart start to gain traction.

At that point who knows.
Imagine a house price crash/decline due to some extreme policy because most people don't own a house.
Or a big tax hike on tech
Or big tax hike on inheritance
Etc

Still think cost of homes/renting is the big issue. If that was brought under control we wouldn't be as bad.
Even renting, if reduced wouldn't be so crippling. Imagine being able to do a lower paid job you love or stay at home with kids because rent/mortgage is 300 rather than 1000.

Best thing for everyone would be a steady decline in prices/rent. But I doubt that can be engineered.

 

[chrcoluk]

Still think cost of homes/renting is the big issue. If that was brought under control we wouldn't be as bad.
Even renting, if reduced wouldn't be so crippling. Imagine being able to do a lower paid job you love or stay at home with kids because rent/mortgage is 300 rather than 1000.

Best thing for everyone would be a steady decline in prices/rent. But I doubt that can be engineered.

Rents can be engineered by building social homes but not overnight as it takes time to build homes.

Housing market for buyers would likely also be affected as the BTL market would be affected and also less people will want to buy a house if they have social home security.

 

[HACO]

Have also this mindset.
You can see it coming. Unless there's something significantly new (like literal robot slaves, or we can do away with capitalism) we are on the decline.

You can't milk much more out of the next generations. While leaving the mega rich untouched. Pension and NHS will soon be unaffordable.

We are in negative feedback loop territory now. Take more from young now, they we have less when we are older. Rinse and repeat.

More and more people are going to be renting when they are pension age. In this case the welfare bill will be unaffordable.
So no pension.

But I guess by that point people will have voted for a non tory party. But still, where will the money come from?

Only way I can see things going is a big big house price correction. As its the cost of living thats devastating. If a tiny percentage of people own it will be wanted too. At that point all bets are off.

This will lead to a collapse of society in western countries. There will be uprisings, and it will either end in extreme violence, millions dead, or in communist revolutions and some serious wealth confiscation.

When historians in future centuries, assuming humanity survives, look back at the cause of collapse of society, it's all these small things that we did to give more to the old and destroy our future.

 

[FoxEye]

This will lead to a collapse of society in western countries. There will be uprisings, and it will either end in extreme violence, millions dead, or in communist revolutions and some serious wealth confiscation.

When historians in future centuries, assuming humanity survives, look back at the cause of collapse of society, it's all these small things that we did to give more to the old and destroy our future.

I don't even think there's a long-term plan. I get the distinct impression that each government only looks at the immediate future, about as far as the next election, and doesn't really worry too much about long-term trends or possible warning flags or - crucially - consider any policy that would help in the long term but be unpopular with the electorate/their base in the here and now.

I just think we're going to muddle along with sticking plasters, not addressing the major issues, until the **** hits the fan, properly. It won't be because we couldn't see it coming, it will be because nobody had the political will to address the issue or do anything about it.

 

[HACO]

I don't even think there's a long-term plan. I get the distinct impression that each government only looks at the immediate future, about as far as the next election, and doesn't really worry too much about long-term trends or possible warning flags or - crucially - consider any policy that would help in the long term but be unpopular with the electorate/their base in the here and now.

I just think we're going to muddle along with sticking plasters, not addressing the major issues, until the **** hits the fan, properly. It won't be because we couldn't see it coming, it will be because nobody had the political will to address the issue or do anything about it.

Yeah, 100% correct. There is no plan. Each government wants to kick the can down the road for future governments to clean up, and they only care about the short-term. That's the greatest bug in western democracies, there are no long-term plans for anything. No government or party will accept short-term sacrifice for long-term prosperity. They will sacrifice long-term health and prosperity of the country (and the world), for a small bump in immediate popularity.

 

[413x]

Yeah it's a flaw in democracy. You don't look into the future. I do find for people who have kids that this is a very odd mindset. But hey ho.

I expect the tail end of my life will bear witness to some sort of big transition. For a while we can keep at this method and keep hoping technology will save things. It might.

 

[HACO]

Yeah it's a flaw in democracy. You don't look into the future. I do find for people who have kids that this is a very odd mindset. But hey ho.

I expect the tail end of my life will bear witness to some sort of big transition. For a while we can keep at this method and keep hoping technology will save things. It might.

Second half of this century will be quite interesting. Will humanity come together and rise to the challenges? Or will we just keep going as we've been. Technology is great, but it can be used for good or bad. I'm just not optimistic at all. They'd rather develop/fund technologies that keep people occupied, or even kill people, than figure out ways to improve quality of life for all people and not just the rich and powerful.

 

[413x]

Second half of this century will be quite interesting. Will humanity come together and rise to the challenges? Or will we just keep going as we've been. Technology is great, but it can be used for good or bad. I'm just not optimistic at all. They'd rather develop/fund technologies that keep people occupied, or even kill people, than figure out ways to improve quality of life for all people and not just the rich and powerful.

Most likely it will continue down the greed path. As nature is naturally selfish. Its going to be interesting that's for sure.

Environmental Disaster is just around the corner and it's not something you can throw a few trillion dollars at and fix in a year with a few lockdowns.

I'd love to think we are progressing with more people caring about such things, but I just don't. Time will tell.

Everything goes in boom/bust cycles. We are well. Overdue a bust.

 

[chrcoluk]

I don't even think there's a long-term plan. I get the distinct impression that each government only looks at the immediate future, about as far as the next election, and doesn't really worry too much about long-term trends or possible warning flags or - crucially - consider any policy that would help in the long term but be unpopular with the electorate/their base in the here and now.

I just think we're going to muddle along with sticking plasters, not addressing the major issues, until the **** hits the fan, properly. It won't be because we couldn't see it coming, it will be because nobody had the political will to address the issue or do anything about it.

I think many will agree with you on this regardless of political alignment.