Weather forecasts

[tres]

How accurate do you find weather forecasts?

I know when I was growing up, they were very hit and miss - perhaps a rough guide to the day. But recently, the forecasts are incredibly accurate - even nailing precipitation to within 30 minutes of forecast.

I guess because of the improved technology and computer models?

 

[Nexus]

UK is terribly unpredictable and they have been very good recently, which is perhaps what prompted you to make this thread with the snow.

However I'd disagree personally.
Remember last year where we had drought and house pipe bans?
Yet there was no long term that we were in for a dreadfully wet summer and autumn with flooding. Was it not the second wettest year on record?

Then the previous summer, we were told it would be a 'BBQ Summer', their words, yet it was miserable.

 

[Arsonist]

We've not yet been told it will be a mega hot summer yet, so this means it probably will be one.
I find, as a general rule of thumb, go with the opposite of what the weatheridiots say. Nearly always works.

 

[malfunkshun]

The further ahead you try to predict the less accurate the prediction.

 

[Bloomfield]

Are you talking about say a weather report on a morning TV show predicting the whole day, or a weather app/widget on your phone that's updating/changing constantly so that it looks like it's predicting stuff properly? .

I wouldn't know about weather forecasts though, haven't watched one for years and don't use any of the apps/widgets on my phone.

 

[gizmoy2k]

Couldn't forecast what day it is tomorrow

 

[BusError]

UK weather prediction is lame. Still is. It's not the "uk weather that is hard to predict" its just a lame forecast service and models. You can (I've done for years) used the norvegian forecast service /for the UK/ and get fantastic forecast -- 48h spot on, 5 days will vary obviously. Likewise in france, the forecast was always spot on on 48h.

I do both a lot of photography and RC plane flying. The norvegian forecast is almost always spot on, while the BBC one is always completely bonkers.

And it's not because they just managed not to fail to spot a huge snowstorm covering the entire country that they finally cracked it.

Now, as making prediction on next summer, it just demonstrates how completely out of touch they are. Even excellent models have a pretty wide margin on 5 days. Trying to predict weather tendencies next season is just about as silly as reading tea leaves.

http://www.yr.no/ <- excellent UK weather forecast, thanks to the Norvegians.

 

[qqg3]

I find that these days they are usually pretty good forecasting 3-5 days ahead, sure they'll be local differences etc but on the whole forecasts are reliable. Anything beyond that, especially pointless long-range forecasts are often wildly inaccurate.

 

[shadow_boxer]

I've been impressed by the accuracy recently with the snow reports and forecasts.

 

[Skillmister]

I've been impressed by the accuracy recently with the snow reports and forecasts.

Unlike ours then which have predicted more snow every day since thursday and we're yet to have any.

 

[Pawnless Endgame]

Dunno about forecasts on TV as I don't own a TV, but app-wise (Android), I find Accuweather the best of the bunch.

 

[panyan]

I guess because of the improved technology and computer models?

In general it is because our computing power, our global imaging and our algorithms have improved meaning we can predict where, when and what with more precision than ever

There is still room for improvement though as bbc weather is currently telling me its snowing here... and it isnt....

 

[benjo]

Don't bash the BBC, they use the MetOffice (bash them instead)

 

[shifty_uk]

I find the opposite - they've been incredibly inaccurate as of late. Not just because they predicted snow in this region over the past week and it never came (which annoyed me greatly ) but over the winter in general, it's been largely rubbish. I compare forecasts ie BBC, Yahoo, iPhone, local TV, met office, all give different results a lot of the time.

 

[sigma]

http://www.yr.no/ <- excellent UK weather forecast, thanks to the Norvegians.

Thanks for that

 

[~Dockie]

its a bit hit and miss here.

we usually get the weather they predict, just not in the quantities they say.

Temperatures seem pretty accurate most of the time though.

 

[Tom_ed1987]

Short term forecasts (1-2 days) are very refined these days, thanks in part to advances in computing power. Long range (5 days+) are in practice as much a guess as they ever were.

 

[Over Clocker]

The BBC hour by hour says light snow for where I am at 10pm and 11pm (and every hour of today from 9am actually), and that has been exactly the case.

The Norwegian site says it should be dry......

It's still snowing.

 

[Wizzfizz]

Our regional weather man/woman is usually spot on.

 

[illuz]

They've been absolute crap! So much for all this snow in Newcastle. Once again we're forecast heavy heavy snow. I'm yet to see more than a few ********** fall from the sky.