Wednesday Puzzle

jamief · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:05

Probabilities are something close to

50 97%
57 99%
100 99.99996%
200 99.9999999999999999999999999998%

Although anything > 200 is as close to 100% as to be almost certain

The Dread Pirate · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:09

Dammit somebody already solved it I did this years ago 56 is the answer

Melm0 · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:12

Ugh, the section on probabilty in AS stats made me hate it sooo much!

The "given that" bit got a bit weird.

Nice puzzle though

PardonTheWait · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:12

jamief said:
The correct answer is 56

It can be quite a complex problem to understand, but see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem (the Understanding the problem bit), quite interesting too. I stumbled upon it doing some programming research

WINNAR

Haircut · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:13

Of course this assumes an even distribution of birthdays throughout the year and in reality that's not actually the case.

Fireskull · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:13

Mohinder said:
WINNAR

But she only got second place :/

PardonTheWait · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:15

Fireskull said:
But she only got second place :/

I think it's 2002, not second

MookJong · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:16

Haircut said:
Of course this assumes an even distribution of birthdays throughout the year and in reality that's not actually the case.

Exactly what i just thought and came back into the thread to post it.....so my idea was much better.

TheMagicPirate · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:17

Isn't this all fine and well in theory, but completely different in practice?

Fireskull · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:18

Mohinder said:
I think it's 2002, not second

Watever.....

PardonTheWait · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:22

TheMagicPirate said:
Isn't this all fine and well in theory, but completely different in practice?

It's maths, not real life!

JIM_BOB7813 · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:22

I think it tricks you into thinking you are looking for however many other people have the same birthday as you. But it isnt like that. Every time you add new person you have a whole group (which is getting bigger) to compare the newest person's birthday with.

jamief · 12 Dec 2007 at 11:25

TheMagicPirate said:
Isn't this all fine and well in theory, but completely different in practice?

Yes - the problem avoids leap years, twins, and seasonal variations in births. As most problems of these type do. However, the fundamentals of the problem are sound, and quite interesting I think :cool: