What are the chances...?
- Thread starter Van Hellseek
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Soldato
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No it's 1 in 9999.
No, including the 1st try does make it 2 in 10,000, or 1 in 5,000.
This is of course assuming he doesn't intend to take the 3rd chance.
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No it's 1 in 9999.
Sorry meant 1 in 5000. Which is the probability of getting the pin correct within 2 goes.
as in 1/10000 + 1/10000 = 1/5000
correct?
Soldato
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Actually, if he intended to take 2 tries, the chances of overall success at the 1st try were 1 in 5,000. Then 1 in 9999 after that attempt failed.
This thread is a great example that statistics are BS!
2 in 1000, 1 in 500?
2 guesses out of 10,000 doesnt mean he's halved his odds of getting the next guess right.
Just means 1 in 9,999 on his 2nd go, and 1 in 9998 on his third go.
If like you say, his odds of guessing the pin are halved on his 2nd guess. That means he's wiped out 5,000 combinations in one guess?
Doesnt make sense to me!
2 guesses out of 10,000 doesnt mean he's halved his odds of getting the next guess right.
Just means 1 in 9,999 on his 2nd go, and 1 in 9998 on his third go.
If like you say, his odds of guessing the pin are halved on his 2nd guess. That means he's wiped out 5,000 combinations in one guess?
Doesnt make sense to me!
Soldato
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Assuming the second try fails, so there is a 9,998 in 9,999 chance at the time of the 2nd try, that that those odds are correct at the time of the 3rd try.
It doesn't, its always 1 in 10,000 because he was randomly pressing the buttons so he could be entering the same combination again and again
Dont get so pedantic. Providing he's not a retard and he can recognise the same motion / pin number. Those would be the odds.
Soldato
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Step aside.
The chances were in fact 1 in 1, taking in all information in the universe, the outcome of the 2nd guess could have been predicted.
/pedant
/thread
The chances were in fact 1 in 1, taking in all information in the universe, the outcome of the 2nd guess could have been predicted.
/pedant
/thread
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Yep, he looked at me very strange when I asked for a pen and wrote my pin on the reciept so I could remember it.
Yep, he looked at me very strange when I asked for a pen and wrote my pin on the reciept so I could remember it.
Reminds me of when Jeremy steals Johnsons credit card
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It doesn't, its always 1 in 10,000 because he was randomly pressing the buttons so he could be entering the same combination again and again
Second try was intentionally different from the first. So not entirely random if you look at it like that then.
The actual odds of that scenario happening are 1/10000
9999/10000 for the first attempt (probability of getting it wrong), then 1/9999 for the second (assuming you know to discount the first set of digits)
Multiply them together to get your probability of the overall event.
9999/10000 for the first attempt (probability of getting it wrong), then 1/9999 for the second (assuming you know to discount the first set of digits)
Multiply them together to get your probability of the overall event.