When are you going fully electric?

I agree, we'll see fewer people driving in future as the prices go up - the BEVs cost more to start with so the used prices will be higher and we could well end up with a two-tier scenario where the more affluent will have BEVs and home charging and the less affluent will drive increasingly old ICE cars and pay higher and higher prices in fuel costs, pollution/congestion charges and servicing costs. Which is a bit pants but let's be honest, the current situation where virtually every household has multiple cars and the roads are jammed up at peak times and using increasingly rare and expensive fossil fuels, just can't continue. I don't think we'll see a major change in what we have now until 2040 or maybe 2050 but it has to change and if the government is going to hit those 2050 zero carbon goals, it has to do something that people won't like.

It's not going to be quick, there will still be ICE cars available for some time but at some point before 2030 they will stop selling them as they won't want to be left with unsaleable products in the dealers they have to register before midnight on the 31st of December. Jaguar are stopping in 2025 and for the others it will be whenever their engine plants need extreme investment and they'll just stop building RHD ICE cars. Europe and the rest of world haven't yet made the same commitment as the UK but as the largest consumer of RHD cars, I don't see the big manufacturers making RHD ICE cars for other markets like Ireland, New Zealand or Hong Kong. Australia might be big enough alone, but I suspect they could end up with just Japanese cars available. And they're REALLY anti-BEVs in Australia. That could be interesting!
 
We'll have new hybrids until 2035 which should help a bit.

Basically though, governments are betting that ride sharing and autonomous driving will become a thing. That way people who can't afford a BEV (or a second one), will use those transport services instead.
 
WJA96 said:
Europe and the rest of world haven't yet made the same commitment as the UK
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A number of countries have though:

ERQGy0_WoAUwpRl

Source: https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1230616261358321664?s=20

A couple of months old, but should be pretty accurate.
 
Australia could be a candidate for hydrogen, skip the bevassic period -
lots of solar panels, store the potential energy as hydrogen, and retain the familiar habit of stopping at the station to fill up, (rather than extended trips to Tescos)
do they make many long range outback road-trips
 
The European Union hasn't so, as you can buy something in one EU country and move it to another with no restrictions, until the EU takes that decision they haven't got a ban on sales of ICE cars. And sure, a few very small markets are also on the 2030 targets but the BIG markets - PRC, USA/North America and the EU have no official date set.
 
jpaul said:
Australia could be a candidate for hydrogen, skip the bevassic period -
lots of solar panels, store the potential energy as hydrogen, and retain the familiar habit of stopping at the station to fill up, (rather than extended trips to Tescos)
do they make many long range outback road-trips
Click to expand...

Quite possibly. Although probably not.
 
WJA96 said:
I agree, we'll see fewer people driving in future as the prices go up - the BEVs cost more to start with so the used prices will be higher and we could well end up with a two-tier scenario where the more affluent will have BEVs and home charging and the less affluent will drive increasingly old ICE cars and pay higher and higher prices in fuel costs, pollution/congestion charges and servicing costs. Which is a bit pants but let's be honest, the current situation where virtually every household has multiple cars and the roads are jammed up at peak times and using increasingly rare and expensive fossil fuels, just can't continue. I don't think we'll see a major change in what we have now until 2040 or maybe 2050 but it has to change and if the government is going to hit those 2050 zero carbon goals, it has to do something that people won't like.
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That might well work for you city dwellers, but down here it won't fly :p

Cornwall has both low wages and a need for people to travel by car (try living and working down here and not having a car, it's virtually impossible).

So we're going to need used EVs on the market for low, low prices (£3k and under). Or like you said, we're going to have everybody driving around in ancient ICEs :p

But you can't penalise workers on low wages who genuinely need their own transport. You can't just cut them off.

Realistically, Cornwall is also one of the last places that autonomous vehicles will be mastering, due to the ... unique... nature of our dirt tracks/roads. Very windy, narrow/single track, lots of cows on the road, no markings, etc :p I think we'll end up with a reputation as the graveyard of self-driving cars :D

Interesting times ahead, anyway. I've love an EV but they're way out of my price range currently, plus I live in a pedestrianised estate, so can't have a charge point at my house.

Besides I'm fairly sure we're still in "early adopter" territory with EVs, and they can only get better.
 
There are three main issues driving the cost of EVs at the moment.

Development
Drivetrain
Manufacturers having to run EV alongside ICE.

To mitigate the above manufacturers are only releasing high spec cars that have a decent margin. You can’t really buy a ‘poverty spec’ EV which is part of the problem. Even a base level Zoe is pretty well equipped compared to a Clio.

The ‘legacy’ manufacturers need to get the pricing due out because the Chinese are coming and will take their lunch money if they are not careful.

That said you may not see £2-3k EVs for a decade, if you ever see them. Inflation coupled with much lower running costs mean they just don’t need to get down to ‘shed’ money for people to afford to run them.
 
Kill_Phil said:
Guy at work has one. Great build quality as you'd expect but take the claimed range with a massive pinch of salt
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They re-charge really fast though.

What's interesting is that you can pick up used e-tron 55's for less than £45k on a 19 or 20 place. Considering they are £60k new that's a pretty good buy and I'm very tempted.
 
jpaul said:
Australia could be a candidate for hydrogen, skip the bevassic period -
lots of solar panels, store the potential energy as hydrogen, and retain the familiar habit of stopping at the station to fill up, (rather than extended trips to Tescos)
do they make many long range outback road-trips
Click to expand...

It's not yet economically viable to create Hydrogen using solar panels. You would need around 100m2 to generate 1kg of Hydrogen a day, which is roughly the same energy a gallon of petrol. Australia sold around 9M gallons of petrol a day last year.

But the big question is, why do you want to generate electricity then inefficiently convert this into a gas which you then convert back again into electricity (with more losses) for use? It is far easier and way more efficient to just send the electricity to where you need it. Hydrogen is difficult to transfer and to store as it has a habit of trying to leak from whatever it is in.
 
Alibaba99 said:
But the big question is, why do you want to generate electricity then inefficiently convert this into a gas which you then convert back again into electricity (with more losses) for use? It is far easier and way more efficient to just send the electricity to where you need it. Hydrogen is difficult to transfer and to store as it has a habit of trying to leak from whatever it is in.
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This and its been said hundreds of times at this point. Hydrogen has its place in commercial applications e.g. long distance coaches and lorries but not passenger cars which on average drive less than 30 miles a day.
 
Alibaba99 said:
It's not yet economically viable to create Hydrogen using solar panels. You would need around 100m2 to generate 1kg of Hydrogen a day, which is roughly the same energy a gallon of petrol. Australia sold around 9M gallons of petrol a day last year.

But the big question is, why do you want to generate electricity then inefficiently convert this into a gas which you then convert back again into electricity (with more losses) for use? It is far easier and way more efficient to just send the electricity to where you need it. Hydrogen is difficult to transfer and to store as it has a habit of trying to leak from whatever it is in.
Click to expand...

not sure if you are serious -
you need to listen to something like this interesting programme I heard the other day about, firstly discusses how solar panel costs are being massively reduced as production is scaled up, something like every time they double production, prices drop 30%, also discusses the panel efficiency improvements.
It reiterates how using spare capacity during times of plenty to manufacture hydrogen (potential energy) is economic.
 
My sister just went fully electric which is a bit of a shock as they have not even considered it before, the went with a Mercedes EQC.

I would love to go fully electric as I mainly do short trips but I have no way of charging it at home right now since I’m living in a flat.
 
b0rn2sk8 said:
There are three main issues driving the cost of EVs at the moment.

Development
Drivetrain
Manufacturers having to run EV alongside ICE.

To mitigate the above manufacturers are only releasing high spec cars that have a decent margin. You can’t really buy a ‘poverty spec’ EV which is part of the problem. Even a base level Zoe is pretty well equipped compared to a Clio.

The ‘legacy’ manufacturers need to get the pricing due out because the Chinese are coming and will take their lunch money if they are not careful.

That said you may not see £2-3k EVs for a decade, if you ever see them. Inflation coupled with much lower running costs mean they just don’t need to get down to ‘shed’ money for people to afford to run them.
Click to expand...

Across Europe the average car age is something like 17 years old and it's rising every year now as prices go up. After 2030 people will just keep running old stuff forever, like Cuba. A lot of the petrol cars around now will outlive the EVs.
 
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