Poll: Where is everyone?

Do you think that life exists elsewhere in the universe?

  • Yes there must be!

    Votes: 561 94.6%
  • Nope, we're all alone.

    Votes: 32 5.4%

  • Total voters
    593
Ha yeah a bit out. My point stands, we've only just had our population explosion and industrial revolution. That's not to say humans weren't intelligent 5000 years ago. In a million years (a blip on the cosmic scale) how much of that 12,000 year old evidence will remain

A huge amount. Humans have re-shaped the planet so much that even if somehow not a trace of our cities and artifacts remained, the scars would. Dinosaurs and other creatures only had their bones / shells / imprints etc to leave us and yet so much of that still survives as fossils. Perhaps only a small fraction of the creatures that ever lived became fossils, but it's enough. Given the vast impact of humans on the Earth, even if only a fraction of it survived it would be enough to leave a record.

Without humans around nature would reclaim our cities pretty quickly. Our towns, cities, fields and roads etc would flood, earthquakes would tumble everything into ruins and so on. Then it gets buried, deeper and deeper under layers of silt, mud, ash etc until those layers form rocks. And inside those rocks, in millions of years time, will be traces of all this.

Besides, we've put enough cr@p into orbit around this planet now that the smaller particles will stay up there pretty much forever (the bigger stuff re-enters of course).
 
Interesting, i didnt know that.

It's a fairly recent divergence, as far as history goes. Proto-keyboard-warriors disagreed over what's philosophy and what's it remit a couple of centuries ago. The argument still rages.:o

Whats the planet like when i get down there? Is it like 'The Road' or is the planet just normal?

Assume:

9Jjgopt.jpg


And business as usual underneath. You are lost and cannot guarantee what's below the clouds, be it solid ground, mountains or oceans. (Some people find it easier to kill if they perceive their victim to have a chance of survival.:eek:)
 
What about intelligent lifeform on this planet even before the dinosaurs? I suppose there is no way to ever know, we could even be the 3rd or 4th intelligent life form on this planet, there is only so many questions we know the answers to.
 

It's hard to describe guys like Kant, Hegel and Nietzsche any other way.:p Neil deGrasse Tyson's dismissal of philosophy, Chomsky's fights with Foucault and Zizek, not to mention Popper and other more mainstream chaps having other feuds in the background, all go back a couple of centuries at least. Their main disagreement: what ideas are worth examining (even if they are undecidable or appear paradoxical) and how should one go about it. The divergence in the academic curriculum in English-speaking countries and elsewhere reflects that as well.
 
lol 5000 years, that's way to short. intensive farming was 10k years ago.
and the oldest stone tools are extremely old, in the millions. pre dating modern human and going back to our very early ancestors.

but i think we will come to realise other animals are far more intelligent than we give them credit for. many animals use tools.

While we have had a significant effect on the environment around us for several thousand years the reality is other than a small number of locals (such as the pyramids in Cairo), nothing we did is distinctly an intelligent animal trait. Removing trees and growing occasional crops is unlikely to be an obvious marker in a geological record after 200 million years. It's really only after the industrial revolution that we left a permanent "scar" on earth, with increases in atmospheric pollution and the mass of man made waste we ave produced.

As I said, if we all became extinct just before the industrial revolution other than a few fossilised wood/metal implements there would be pretty much nothing to indicate we were an "intelligent" species after a couple of hundred million years.
 
It's a fairly recent divergence, as far as history goes. Proto-keyboard-warriors disagreed over what's philosophy and what's it remit a couple of centuries ago. The argument still rages.:o



Assume:

9Jjgopt.jpg


And business as usual underneath. You are lost and cannot guarantee what's below the clouds, be it solid ground, mountains or oceans. (Some people find it easier to kill if they perceive their victim to have a chance of survival.:eek:)

Heaviest first. Greatest chance for survival of more people.

That said I may see what the world renowned scientist was into (and make sure none of the others were either). If it was jane, the office admin, bob the bricklayer and jim the world renowned scientist in psychology then heaviest first!
 
Ha yeah a bit out. My point stands, we've only just had our population explosion and industrial revolution. That's not to say humans weren't intelligent 5000 years ago. In a million years (a blip on the cosmic scale) how much of that 12,000 year old evidence will remain?

E: shamelessly stolen from Wikipedia

Or in 200 million, where most of what we call the ground is either subducted, caused into mountains, eroded by several km or 15,000 feet beneath the new surface or perhaps metamorphosed (amongst other options)?

There is a reason it's very difficult to study earth in the couple of billion or so years after formation. There is very little rock left to do so, especially at surface.

A huge amount. Humans have re-shaped the planet so much that even if somehow not a trace of our cities and artifacts remained, the scars would. Dinosaurs and other creatures only had their bones / shells / imprints etc to leave us and yet so much of that still survives as fossils. Perhaps only a small fraction of the creatures that ever lived became fossils, but it's enough. Given the vast impact of humans on the Earth, even if only a fraction of it survived it would be enough to leave a record.

Without humans around nature would reclaim our cities pretty quickly. Our towns, cities, fields and roads etc would flood, earthquakes would tumble everything into ruins and so on. Then it gets buried, deeper and deeper under layers of silt, mud, ash etc until those layers form rocks. And inside those rocks, in millions of years time, will be traces of all this.

Besides, we've put enough cr@p into orbit around this planet now that the smaller particles will stay up there pretty much forever (the bigger stuff re-enters of course).

That's humans in the last 300 years though. What about a previous species that either didn't end up at the stage we are now, or went a different way and/or just didn't have as many of the species? I think you are underestimating just how much change occurs to rock during lithification, just how much we are missing in the geological record and just how many educated leaps we make to gloss over the missing patches.

An example would be something like: You're given a 6x4" photo to look at and explain. But rather than the entire photo you are given half a dozen 2x2mm pieces of it and asked to explain what the photo is about. 99.5% of the photo is not available to you, but you have to piece it all together and hope you get it right. Worst part is you'll never know if you actually did, unless someone gives you another couple of squares the disprove a couple of your theories.
 
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Am not well so give me some slack........ :(

Space is like the ocean, you look at it from 1000 or even 100ft and it seems devoid of life.

You take a sample or get within a few feet and you see life. You enter the ocean and find it is teaming with life. :eek:

Space is the same thing, its all down to perspective.

Now I need to find my safe place to be ill alone. :(
 
Or in 200 million, where most of what we call the ground is either subducted, caused into mountains, eroded by several km or 15,000 feet beneath the new surface or perhaps metamorphosed (amongst other options)?

There is a reason it's very difficult to study earth in the couple of billion or so years after formation. There is very little rock left to do so, especially at surface.



That's humans in the last 300 years though. What about a previous species that either didn't end up at the stage we are now, or went a different way and/or just didn't have as many of the species? I think you are underestimating just how much change occurs to rock during lithification, just how much we are missing in the geological record and just how many educated leaps we make to gloss over the missing patches.

An example would be something like: You're given a 6x4" photo to look at and explain. But rather than the entire photo you are given half a dozen 2x2mm pieces of it and asked to explain what the photo is about. 99.5% of the photo is not available to you, but you have to piece it all together and hope you get it right. Worst part is you'll never know if you actually did, unless someone gives you another couple of squares the disprove a couple of your theories.

Humans have been leaving a mark on the Earth for MUCH longer than 300 years. Ancient civilizations changed the landscape massively too and left behind all sorts of traces, admittedly a lot of them probably won't be that visible in millions of years time, but that's mostly because so much of it has been / will be overwritten by subsequent human activity.

We can trace the entire story of life on Earth through Geology and Palaeontology. Everything is consistent with the theory of evolution, there's no anomalies. There are of course mass extinctions and partial resets. And yes, piecing it together is often exactly like viewing the fragments of a photo.

It can't be entirely ruled out that some branch of intelligent (or semi intelligent) life evolved and reached a pre-technological state before dying out and somehow didn't get into the geological record, or hasn't been found yet perhaps because they only had a narrow habitat range. But it's rather unlikely given what we know and would essentially be an anomaly in the story of life on earth as it's currently understood.
 
It's a fairly recent divergence, as far as history goes. Proto-keyboard-warriors disagreed over what's philosophy and what's it remit a couple of centuries ago. The argument still rages.:o



Assume:

9Jjgopt.jpg


And business as usual underneath. You are lost and cannot guarantee what's below the clouds, be it solid ground, mountains or oceans. (Some people find it easier to kill if they perceive their victim to have a chance of survival.:eek:)

Right, so i had a little think about it today. I would initially have said heaviest 1st, it makes sense i suppose... but i think i will go for lightest first, that would be Dingo (sorry buddy), then the old man, he's had a great innings - i'm sure he would sacrifice himself if he was old (he's a selfish idiot otherwise). It's hard to determine between everyone else, probably Paris, scientist, boy, pregnant mother. Hopefully only Dingo has to do die before the balloon stabilises to an acceptable speed though ;)
 
Before any one jumps in with there's a youtube thread you know, it is pretty damn relevant to the discussion after all. ;)

 
Good, good. My net is bearing fishes. To avoid a massive text-wall, we'll have to blitz through this.

Heaviest first. Greatest chance for survival of more people.

That said I may see what the world renowned scientist was into (and make sure none of the others were either). If it was jane, the office admin, bob the bricklayer and jim the world renowned scientist in psychology then heaviest first!

Right, so i had a little think about it today. I would initially have said heaviest 1st, it makes sense i suppose... but i think i will go for lightest first, that would be Dingo (sorry buddy), then the old man, he's had a great innings - i'm sure he would sacrifice himself if he was old (he's a selfish idiot otherwise). It's hard to determine between everyone else, probably Paris, scientist, boy, pregnant mother. Hopefully only Dingo has to do die before the balloon stabilises to an acceptable speed though ;)

Amp34: Pretty much landed in the central limit of all of this -- a modern-rationalist, objective metric (though he then performs a leap into Trusty's position): Dingo, notably, and other light individuals are worth two lives though (depedening on the stage of pregnancy and your definition of life in the womb); if you shuffle the people on the trip, can give very weird orderings; removes one a step away from responsibility and hard to apply in a crisis (how do you weigh people in the balloon that's about to plummet hard?); analysis paralysis and slow decisions likely, can overgeneralize (see below); provided you survive the crisis, was weight the best primary metric to have used? If you can't apply your chosen metric accurately, would you still start chucking people out, even if it risked arbitrary results? What if people refuse, or demand a democratic means of selection? How do you justify an animal as equal to a legal individual, given that objective metrics can make it just that?

Trusty: A repentant rationalist or a proto-utilitarian: even though Amp's chosen metric remains, it's applied differently and you're on track to considering more quality of life arguments and the least harm for the greatest shared good more concretely. Difficult consequences still follow: Do animals have different value? Is encouraging suicide murder? What is the harm value of murder to the utility of the whole group? What is supreme: an individual's right to life, and to refuse suicide for the greater good, or their utility? Do you prejudge utility based on past experience or attempt to establish it at each decision point? Is it a good use of time in a crisis? What if some individual's utility varied significantly relative to context, and other's did not (Scientist vs Hilton; majoritarian systems are fun like that)?

This thought experiment is also primed to test for determinism: you don't know what your chances of survival are, even after killing everyone; indeed, there's a difference between safely gliding down in a middle of a beer festival in an open field and crashing atop Mount Everest. Would you still act and justify your actions if the outcome was preset by your initial conditions regardless? How does your moral framework face the unknown? Do you still act in the same way if your personal survival cannot be assured?;)

Now that we've got a measure of you with the balloon, we can look at 'Why can't we eat babies?' dilemma.

Amp34 (overgenelazying :p): They're, excepting any weight abnormalities due to genetic conditions, severe injuries and diseases, the lightest members of the population. Objectively it's a stupid thing to do given heavier specimens. But in extreme cases, eat the ones you don't approve of/like first. ;):eek:

Trusty: They are the lightest so we can, but since we're also congnizant of the quality of life of the individual and our greater good, we pause: what is their quality of life, utility and thus value? Well, they haven't had a life and their utility is objectively impossible to measure (a eugenicist would go with genetic potential here instead); further, provided they're healthy and you disregard animals like Dingo, their quality of life shall remain much better than that of older members of the population of limited utility or great harm: pensioners and criminals, respectively. Moreover, we need to sustain a population which can continue to produce goods and services and have more young individuals than old individuals to pursue the greater good through time. The latter conditions outweigh our chosen metric, and we proscribe the eating of babies... for now. :eek: Hence we can't eat them.

A lawyer would not be so loose with their definitions, test cases and application. But you get the picture of how throwing about ideas at such thought experiments can have merit of bringing one's values and intuition out of the dark.

More appropriately to the thread: Given the above (two out of a rather large number of permutations in what is a simple case), would you assume other intelligent life had converged on a similar set of ethical reference points before meeting you? How'd you explain good and bad to it? Is moral behaviour universal or specific? Does 'goodness' correlate with intelligence, likewise universally or specifically? Provided you can define intelligence and recognise it when you see it!:)

Also, the discussion is, even in its practical guise, rather 'pointless' -- there's no right answer nor end to it. deGrasse Tyson would give up on such speculation, whilst arguably still having a philosophy, engaging in such speculation as befits his field and a morality he's socially absorbed from the scientific community and wider society; which would emerge in a crisis whether he had thought it was a pointless pursuit to consider undecidable problems or not. (It remains an open problem: how do you know that a problem is intractable in advance? How do you tell a problem that's merely very hard apart from an impossible one?) Feynman was guilty of this little sin as well. (Social sciences and humanities are 'pointless' until you pronounce on their effectiveness and attempt to apply hard scientific methods to elucidate their effectiveness or improve them... which makes you a social scientist if not a philosopher off the bat.) :p

Okay, it's a text-wall. Shoot me.
 
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Humans have been leaving a mark on the Earth for MUCH longer than 300 years. Ancient civilizations changed the landscape massively too and left behind all sorts of traces, admittedly a lot of them probably won't be that visible in millions of years time, but that's mostly because so much of it has been / will be overwritten by subsequent human activity.

We can trace the entire story of life on Earth through Geology and Palaeontology. Everything is consistent with the theory of evolution, there's no anomalies. There are of course mass extinctions and partial resets. And yes, piecing it together is often exactly like viewing the fragments of a photo.

It can't be entirely ruled out that some branch of intelligent (or semi intelligent) life evolved and reached a pre-technological state before dying out and somehow didn't get into the geological record, or hasn't been found yet perhaps because they only had a narrow habitat range. But it's rather unlikely given what we know and would essentially be an anomaly in the story of life on earth as it's currently understood.

I agree, it's rather unlikely, but at the same time you can't completely insist there is no chance. There is. That's the point I was making all along.

I also think you are still overstating the actual data we have and the extrapolations we have to do to get to the knowledge we have at the moment. Yes, we have a good idea of the general parts of the history of life, but it's certainly not all encompassing, there are huge gaps in our knowledge which while we think our theories covering these gaps are correct they may not be so. As an example going back to continental drift - it was only in the late 50s that we realized how plate tectonics actually worked (and that there were plates at all) after new data from undersea ridges and trenches was available.

As I said before the majority of what ancient civilizations have done (and pretty much everyone up until the industrial revolution) is something that could easily be misconstrued as natural phenomena. Unless we were extremely lucky and found an ancient building (the likelihood of which would almost certainly have to have been buried in something like a volcanic eruption, major land slide or massive flood in a subsiding basin - or else it would have just eroded away) relatively minor (globally) changes in vegetation and materials movement would basically look like a blip in the geological record. As mentioned before 10-20ka is basically a couple of mm of marine sediment in many places and as much as the processes are the same there is a massive difference between finding some wooden stakes in a bog from 5000 years ago, and finding them 200 million years later.

Our removal of vegetation prior to the industrial revolution may come up as a blip in the C12/13 ratios, or a slightly anomalous variation in a specific mineral or rock type. There are plenty of those in the geological record. We don't even really know what happened in the periods of major change such as the PETM (or heck, even the K/T boundary - to use the old term). We can hypothesize and look for evidence, coming up with some good models to fit the evidence (such as a combination of asteroid and major outflows of volcanic materials, amongst other factors), but we need to start somewhere. Someone coming up with the idea of an intelligent life form removing vegetation 200Ma would get laughed out of the scientific journals, without extreme proof, which variations in a ratio that could easily be attributed to other things.

So perhaps we shall have to agree to disagree. I know there are plenty of holes in our understanding of the geology and palaeontology, alongside many, many events in the geological record people cannot begin to understand why they occurred with any certainty. There is always the possibility, however slight, that these holes may be where an "intelligent" species resided and/or were the cause of said anomalies. The likelihood is very slim admittedly, but it shouldn't be ruled out entirely.

Edit: there may be no anomalies in the theory of evolution, but there are still massive holes in the palaeontological record that may well be filled with an intelligent life, especially when you consider the Potential lifespan of that intelligent life (ours is currently just a minor blip in the geological timescale). Heck we may have even found fossils (part of of most of) an intelligent life form, but just not realized (again slim).

Edit 2: as I was going to write the other day about coal. Would we know if it was extracted? Coal wasn't laid down equally over the geological timescale. The Carboniferous is a major period of coal formation. We know that because, in part, there is much more coal than other periods (along with other evidence). If it had been mined out would we have known there was that much coal in the first place? And secondly would we realize why here wasn't enough? Would we have just redrawn the palaeogeographical maps? Attributed areas of less coal to areas of reduced subsidence relative to surrounding areas (and subsequently less deposition)?

It's an interesting question and something I think I'll take more notice of when I come up against something odd in the geological record after discussing this topic (not that there may be missing sections because of an older intelligent species, rather, perhaps think a bit more laterally when coming upon something interesting).
 
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Jack, sounds about right :p.

Weight wise it would have to be based on the body shape and assumptions. You'd hope not everyone was a shape that could be the same weight (tall and skinny, short and fat etc). Reality is unless someone just volunteered you'd all go down together (and that would probably only happen if it in fact turned out it was a family balloon ride, your dad was the old man, the pregnant woman was your expecting wife and the little boy, your son and the dog the family pet...! Then perhaps your dad would sacrifice himself to try and save you all...) :p

Interesting points on the culture as well, just see earths humans to see how right and wrong, good and bad are so varied between cultures and regions. The reality is an alien culture may well see us as too dangerous, animalistic and unworthy of contact and intermingling. Heaven forbid we pollute their culture...
 
As an example going back to continental drift - it was only in the late 50s that we realized how plate tectonics actually worked (and that there were plates at all) after new data from undersea ridges and trenches was available.

I see now why you had an issue with the term drift. I wasn't ignorant of plate tectonics, or why Wegener's idea about Earth's rotation was proved incorrect, but it was a good troll nonetheless, as I was sent on a rather long tangent refreshing my memory of albedo effects and what contributes to them on Earth. :o

Jack, sounds about right :p.

Weight wise it would have to be based on the body shape and assumptions. You'd hope not everyone was a shape that could be the same weight (tall and skinny, short and fat etc). Reality is unless someone just volunteered you'd all go down together (and that would probably only happen if it in fact turned out it was a family balloon ride, your dad was the old man, the pregnant woman was your expecting wife and the little boy, your son and the dog the family pet...! Then perhaps your dad would sacrifice himself to try and save you all...) :p

Interesting points on the culture as well, just see earths humans to see how right and wrong, good and bad are so varied between cultures and regions. The reality is an alien culture may well see us as too dangerous, animalistic and unworthy of contact and intermingling. Heaven forbid we pollute their culture...

I don't relish the thought of having to explain the Daily Mail or /4/chan. But then again, they may wish to make contact with an animal other than human, prefer our finest dictators or primitive, protected tribes which they may consider advanced; or think the planet is lifeless because they define life differently! Which is also the reason I think that sending out probes with coded messages isn't the greatest idea -- it assumes a particular way of doing mathematics, recognising form and interacting with the world; reality isn't so nice and consistent. What to us is a compendium of the finest knowledge our intelligence can offer, could be absolute rubbish to something alien. A picture is a bizarre thing to a truly blind, bat-like creature, for example.
 
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I feel like we are just pawns in a game, someone in the universe is better than the human race in some way...

Funny how memory works, the above just made me watch/listen to Chris Rea's "God's great banana skin" for the first time in years, taking me back to A-level days. The above quote instantly made me think of the lyrics "Don't you ever think no-ones better than you."

I now feel old. :(
 
I see now why you had an issue with the term drift. I wasn't ignorant of plate tectonics, or why Wegener's idea about Earth's rotation was proved incorrect, but it was a good troll nonetheless, as I was sent on a rather long tangent refreshing my memory of albedo effects and what contributes to them on Earth. :o

Haha, yeah. I made the assumption that you knew how it all worked, just taking the pee out of your use of "drift" :p

I don't relish the thought of having to explain the Daily Mail or /4/chan. But then again, they may wish to make contact with an animal other than human, prefer our finest dictators or primitive, protected tribes which they may consider advanced; or think the planet is lifeless because they define life differently! Which is also the reason I think that sending out probes with coded messages isn't the greatest idea -- it assumes a particular way of doing mathematics, recognising form and interacting with the world; reality isn't so nice and consistent. What to us is a compendium of the finest knowledge our intelligence can offer, could be absolute rubbish to something alien. A picture is a bizarre thing to a truly blind, bat-like creature, for example.

I always look at those and think "WTF are they supposed to mean", in the same way I look at hyroglifics and wonder the same. I guess as the universal translator hasn't been invented yet as a form of communication it's as good as any! I think they also sent sounds with the pictures, perhaps just for that eventuality. :p

Perhaps the aliens have access to Wikipedia?

It would be kinda ironic if that did happen. The aliens skip Washington and land in the Amazon to talk to the pinnacle of our species, the so called "primative" natives that live in harmony with the world around them, rather than the "west", hell bent on destroying it.

Alternatively, "so long and thanks for all the fish!" :D
 
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Considering how vast the space is it would be silly to assume there is no other life organisms out there. Whether it's intelligent like us or not it's a guess.
 
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