Man of Honour
dirtydog said:
We're all entitled to our opinions. You may consider me a consistently successful gambler then. I won't go into numbers as that would be vulgar, but my average day parked in front of the computer during market hours has paid me more, pro-rata, than the national average salary. I have had, to date, 59 such trading days since 5th December 2005 (work and other commitments have precluded me doing it every possible day).
dirtydog said:You presumably think that you have some special knowledge that all of the many highly-paid fund managers whose funds fail to match the index performance, do not have
I have two HUGE edges on them. One is that I'd be playing with my own money. The other is rules for exit. Look how long they stay in each company in their portfolio. I'd set a small target. Bang, it's hit! Move on. They're not fluid enough. They set too big a target for too small a timeframe. I'd be happy to take just 5% profit a few days or weeks into the trade, re-invest and move on. If one does that just ten times per slot, per year, in a constantly evolving portfolio of ten stocks, one makes 50% overall in that year...
The point not being taken advantage of is that each stock has its ups and downs throughout the course of the year. I'd make money from volatility. Buying into a stock then waiting as it has several ups and downs is silly. Watch it like a hawk, and take advantage of each climb. Watch all stocks like a hawk, and when you've made your little 5% on one, ditch it for the next one that's about to climb. Mix that with a higher percentage target strategy on special situations*, like the ones I mention below, and it won't take long at all to make lots of loot.
They're staid in their approach, just backing the obvious companies. They place too much emphasis on market capitalisation as a safety net. Most basic diversified funds have their largest holding in BP., because it is has the largest capitalisation. But the problem is, when they go in at the wrong time, it will take years and years to have made enough profit for them to be able to say 'well we could have chosen our entry point a bit better, but in the long run we achieved what we set out to do'...and when they go in at the right time, they stay in too long, when they should taken profit!
I also think I have more imagination, and more balls, than the average fund manager. I make that assessment based on all the studying I've done of how funds are managed, how the portfolios are made up & alter over time, as well on the performance of my short to mid-term ISA trading account. Highlights in the last year include making 60% profit on FTO in just over a month, and 64% on KAZ in the space of three months.
You shouldn't forget sir, that anybody can be a fund manager. There are non-graduate fund managers out there, not that having a degree gives any particular edge in this game, and there are those who might easily have just ended up in some other type of office, with much lower salaries and doing more complex work...
All it takes is some mindpower, alertness, good sense, time invested, and the ability to learn & absorb. I've spent hundreds of hours in the last year studying companies, and I feel my time has been well spent.
*And by special situations, I don't backing a hunch that something boring like VOD will have recovered the £2 sp in a couple of years! I mean going with a lesser known outfit that looks very attractive, even after in-depth research, and letting it run for a time. Short-term, high risk, high potential. If it doesn't do what you want, cut & run. Set rules before executing, and stick to them.
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