Why cant the weathermen get it right?

imo the weather has become as sensationalist as the news.

In the office; small rain cloud coming

In the studio; GOOD GRIEF WE'RE IN FOR SOME ROUGH STORMS
 
Because they work on models that can never be entirely accurate.

It makes me laugh that people whinge about weather prediction inaccuracy yet take climate change models seriously though...
 
Visage said:
The problem is that there is no point getting accurate data for the lesser variables - their effect is so small that after only a few iterations the variation in forecast caused by uncertainties on the main variables will swamp any variability caused by the lesser ones.
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Not for long term weather forecasts. Those small errors, soon multiply out of control.
 
Dolph said:
Because they work on models that can never be entirely accurate.

It makes me laugh that people whinge about weather prediction inaccuracy yet take climate change models seriously though...
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Except that weather and climate arent the same thing.

Really, Dolph - you can do better than rely on such trite arguments.
 
Visage said:
Except that weather and climate arent the same thing.

Really, Dolph - you can do better than rely on such trite arguments.
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The process for modelling them is pretty similar, as is the current quality of the models.

Unless you think a model that predicts a 2-5oC rise by 2100, that when run for current known variables produces data that's 2-5oC higher than now is somehow useful. The climate scientists do, they think it doesn't matter...
 
I have an Ascot weather station bought from Aldi, does a pretty good job really, predicted yesterdays rain and in the past has predicted snow when there was no mention of it on local weather reports.
 
AcidHell2 said:
Not for long term weather forecasts. Those small errors, soon multiply out of control.
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But the errors in the major factors multiply out of control much faster, thanks to the greater prominence they have.

Worrying about lesser factors is like concentrating on air pressure when calculating how long to cook a chicken - sure it will have an effect, but that effect is utterly negligible compared with other factors like weight, and temperature.

No one would say that a cookbook was inaccurate if it ignored air pressure, would they? - and if you burned your chicken no-one would say 'Damn - should have considered air pressure'

I think I may have overstretched the chicken metaphor.
 
Loowi_ashley said:
I’ve been wondering this for sometime, when checking the weather why is it so unreliable?

For example, I checked the weather(forecast) last Friday afternoon for my area, the outlook for Saturday was heavy rain by 10am in the morning clearing up in the afternoon. 10am Saturday it was nice and sunny, with bright clear weather all day, I again checked the weather forecastSaturday which showed rain all day Sunday. On Sunday the weather was clear and sunny till 8pm and we finally got some rain.

It also seems if they're not sure what the weather is doing they try and cover all angles, take the following week each day has a picture of a cloud, bit of sun and a drop of rain, wtf!??
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Which forecast are you talking about?

BBC's website is totally inacurate. I don't know about the UK versions but for Brussels it's complete nonsense a lot of the time although at the moment it seems about right.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0037

Yet look at wunderground.com for thursday and friday...

Cloudy and friday sunny.

Local radio station's forecast for Thursday is partly cloudy and for friday it's sunny with highs of 18-20.

So if I just went with the Beeb I'd be uselessly carrying an umbrella all day...
 
Fireskull said:
Lies!
rain.jpg
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Get out of General Discussion filthy Mac user... :p

Oh and to answer the OP - Chaos Theory. There a simply too many variables even for one of the worlds most powerful computers to crunch.
 
Weather forecasts that you can watch on the TV are usually run using just a few variables. Climate change models require more detailed inputs with more variables (percentage of NOX in atmosphere won't really affect how the weather turns out tomorrow, but may have a profound effect by the year 2100).

I've usually found the BBC forecasts to be fairly accurate, but a bit of intelligence ought to be used. I remember at uni when I was doing a masters in met, a few people would turn up to lectures in shorts and t-shirts when the weather looked pretty gloomy because their own quick assessment of the weather charts led them to believe it wouldn't actually rain! Was funny when the lectures finished and it was hammering it down! The ones who got a first class degree always packed an umbrella regardless! :)
 
Visage said:
But the errors in the major factors multiply out of control much faster, thanks to the greater prominence they have.
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I never siad tehy didn't. Usless comparison. Air temp doesn't affect cooking chicken in an oven.

Other variables do affect weather. At some point data for the main factors will get accurate enough to warrant these small factors.


Also Weather models and GW models are very similar.
 
I never trust any weather sites other than one, run my my gf's uncle as it happens but I used to rely on it before we met anyway! Cant recall when he has ever been wrong, possibly gets temps wrong sometimes by a few degrees but as for rain forecasts he is spot on!
 
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