Poll: Will UHD be a failure?

[Journey]

Depending on what you ultimately classify as a failure, UHD could indeed become irrelevant pretty quickly. It's taken well over a decade to get a couple of dozen channels broadcasting in HD, and I see as many DVDs for sale (or more) as blu-ray.

Having just premium content available, be it sports or movies and handful of prerecorded media on offer, in my eyes does not equate to success. To be a true success it needs to be the standard for all TV/movie studios and production companies, but I would imagine budgets may have to increase to accommodate that.

Given the massive uptake of media streaming be it , YouTube, Netflix, or Amazon etc. which has dynamic resolution and is dependent on bandwidth rather than traditional delivery methods, I would think feedback and demand from the users of these services will play a big factor in deciding the success of UHD.

 

[AHarvey]

I can't.

It's not just a case of "more is better" when it comes to resolution. You'll need to be viewing on something like a 100" screen to see any difference between 4K and 8K and the average person just won't be in that market.

There comes a point where you reach "enough pixels" for typical screen sizes and viewing distances. Screen sizes will also cap out at the point where any larger would dominate living rooms too much.

I think we're already there with screen sizes. 55 and 65 inch seem to be two very popular screen sizes right now and I think these are large enough for 99% of buyers. I think these sizes will remain the most popular for now. 4K on this size of screen is more than enough, rendering 8K pointless.

Camera market - more pixels is better to joe public even though it is not really the case.

People already buy screens that are too large for their viewing distance.

People spend a fortune on gold cables for audio and visual devices etc, even though most would say there is little or no improvement, that it's in their head.

While I agree with what you say, Joe Public is stupid, Joe public believe that bigger is better...

 

[Vertigo]

UHD Footie on BT Sport is beautiful. Daredevil in UHD is sublime. UHD Bluray's are just gobsmacking.

Just ludicrous that we now have 3 different picture quality ie SD, HD and UHD.

Bout time they canned SD and forced people away from it similar to when they stopped analogue TV.

Oh get real. They only canned analogue after digital had been around for ages and all but the most ancient TVs had freeview tuners built in.

HD is nowhere near that level of uptake yet. There are still rafts of SD only TVs around, mainly smaller ones used in bedrooms or kitchens and the like, which would be instantly rendered useless if SD broadcasts were stopped.

There's also the small matter of bandwidth, both on terrestrial and satellite. How much additional space do you think it'd take to convert every single SD channel to HD?

 

[malachi]

Before we even get to UHD, maybe we should ask if even BD is considered a mainstream success?
I'm conscious of the amount of DVDs still for sale, implying that there's a whole bunch of the public out there without a BD player.

Has BD simply been bypassed by streaming for the majority of the public?

If so, strikes me that the drive for resolution is most probably going to be driven by streaming, rather than disk/player availability.

I'm also very conscious that a close friend works in the movie industry, where costs are very much a concern (particularly is his arena of CGI). Most movies are still not made in 4k. Will that change? Who knows.

That's the problem, many people are happy to watch streaming services in so called HD or 4K when the bitrate is terrible. Some cases you don't get real DD or DTS.

The best way to get true uncompressed HD and 4K is from Blu-Rays but people will still go out and buy normal DVD's to watch on their HD or 4K TV.......that's if its not available on a streaming service.

 

[Jono]

It won't be a failure, but I'm quite happy with HD at the moment. It needs to have a full library of streamable media and UHD discs the same price as BD currently are before I will be upgrading. I think. Or maybe when a new console comes out that does 60fps 4k (not upscaled) on pretty much all titles for it.

 

[Deleted member 651465]

I think it will be the standard, but it'll take 10+ years to get there. By which time we'll be talking about the "next big thing".

I'd like to see UHD discs replace BD discs as a matter of course. I fear that Joe Public will be averse to buying in to another format considering BD is so young. Additionally, the popularity of streaming services and easy access could render discs obsolete for the majority of people (Joe Public) unless owning the physical media means nothing more than "buying the film in the blue box".

Happy to buy in to UHD when my TV dies, so looking forward to seeing how the technology improves in the meantime.

 

[Warbie]

A 50" TV is already huge in our living room, i can't see us going bigger for 4k.

You'd be surprised how quickly ppl get used to bigger. If you have a wall can fit 100" +

 

[Synth3D]

Its not like 3D, 4K is here to stay...

(until 8K)

Even though certain television manufacturers are dropping 3D support in certain models, 3D is still a viable option and many big-budget films release a 3D version.

They are even releasing Terminator 2: Judgement Day in 3D at the cinemas next year, the format must be successful with a certain percentage of the audience for producers to keep releasing 3D versions of films.

 

[Synth3D]

I think it will be the standard, but it'll take 10+ years to get there. By which time we'll be talking about the "next big thing".

I'd like to see UHD discs replace BD discs as a matter of course. I fear that Joe Public will be averse to buying in to another format considering BD is so young. Additionally, the popularity of streaming services and easy access could render discs obsolete for the majority of people (Joe Public) unless owning the physical media means nothing more than "buying the film in the blue box".

Happy to buy in to UHD when my TV dies, so looking forward to seeing how the technology improves in the meantime.

I agree, Netflix saw a significant membership decline in July due to the price of the standard definition subscription price rising. It shows that there are a significant number of people that still watch Netflix on a laptop without much concern for the quality of the stream.

Until a huge demographic of a the population adapts, the cost of a 4K Blu-ray player will remain significantly higher than everything else. 4K films are a high premium to pay unless you plan to watch the films several times, I can only see the videophile crowd investing in the technology.

However, I could see 4K sports streams making a difference to the audience as a monthly subscription for 4K content is the best business model. Live sports are filmed at a distance and I think that 4K is much more noticeable at higher resolutions due to the way live sports are filmed.

 

[varkanoid]

Oh get real. They only canned analogue after digital had been around for ages and all but the most ancient TVs had freeview tuners built in.

HD is nowhere near that level of uptake yet. There are still rafts of SD only TVs around, mainly smaller ones used in bedrooms or kitchens and the like, which would be instantly rendered useless if SD broadcasts were stopped.

There's also the small matter of bandwidth, both on terrestrial and satellite. How much additional space do you think it'd take to convert every single SD channel to HD?

I am being real. The digital turnover was announced years before it actually happened giving plenty of time for people to switch. They could decide as of 2020 or even 2025 SD will no longer be broadcast. All new TV's are HD capable and have been for quite a number of years now. The number of SD only TV's may actually be smaller than you think.

 

[Darujhistan]

I don't think so, it will be a couple of years before I bother with it though.

 

[dacads]

If Sky and other services ramp up their UHD content there's no reason why it'll be a failure imo.

I'm looking forward to watching football in 4K, and i'm hoping by this next next year the golf majors will all be in 4K. The masters will be stunning.

We need to see a ramp up in HD let alone UHD..

 

[malachi]

We need to see a ramp up in HD let alone UHD..

Yep, in true HD not up upscaled which many TV channels get away with.

 

[Chris1712]

I don't think so, it will be a couple of years before I bother with it though.

I am being real. The digital turnover was announced years before it actually happened giving plenty of time for people to switch. They could decide as of 2020 or even 2025 SD will no longer be broadcast. All new TV's are HD capable and have been for quite a number of years now. The number of SD only TV's may actually be smaller than you think.

There have been discussions to firstly move entirely to DVB-T2 (switch off T) first, which will release bandwidth for more HD channels on T2 (I have literally been in the room during meetings on this with broadcasters). As with everything in this country it's held up by bureaucrats, sycophants and huge groups of slow moving people with a vested interest in the status quo.

 

[Grimley]

Its not like 3D, 4K is here to stay...

(until 8K)

This. As more content is released & hardware becomes cheaper then it should do. 3D had a short shelf life though....

 

[rolypolyman]

I have a UHD HDR 50"TV, Sky Q Silver with Cinema and Sports with UHD football and an XBOX ONE S with UHD HDR Blu-Ray and yes I think its here to stay, you only have to go into Currys and other TV shops and see the numbers of UHD TVS for sale. I have 4K Netflix. Sky are finally but slowly introducing 4K stuff and I am enjoying most of the programs. I must say though I find the 4K HDR Blu-Ray is superior to most other stuff, The Revenant is so far the only one I have seen and it was stunning. I recently went to the cinema with my wife in London and the seats were £15 each, £3.99 for a drink and £6 for popcorn, so the £19.99 I paid for the Revenant seems good value so yes I do see discs doing well for a while yet. Oh and I find 50" the perfect size for my lounge and can quite easily see the difference in the quality between 1080p and UHD.

 

[Synth3D]

I have a UHD HDR 50"TV, Sky Q Silver with Cinema and Sports with UHD football and an XBOX ONE S with UHD HDR Blu-Ray and yes I think its here to stay, you only have to go into Currys and other TV shops and see the numbers of UHD TVS for sale. I have 4K Netflix. Sky are finally but slowly introducing 4K stuff and I am enjoying most of the programs. I must say though I find the 4K HDR Blu-Ray is superior to most other stuff, The Revenant is so far the only one I have seen and it was stunning. I recently went to the cinema with my wife in London and the seats were £15 each, £3.99 for a drink and £6 for popcorn, so the £19.99 I paid for the Revenant seems good value so yes I do see discs doing well for a while yet. Oh and I find 50" the perfect size for my lounge and can quite easily see the difference in the quality between 1080p and UHD.

I agree, people that say they can't see the difference between 1080p and 4K on a smaller screen are either viewing on very cheap 4K sets or they haven't watched enough 4K content.

Of course, 4K Blu-Ray will always be far superior to the compressed Netflix 4K sources that stream at 15Mbps and I think the large push for 4K Blu-Ray will start at the end of this year.

 

[v0n]

As I said before on the subject - willingness of end user to adopt is irrelevant when the technology offers no provision for delivery. In other words, Samsung can flog you 8k and 16k TV sets for all I care, from broadcasters point of view, there are no standards and no coherent tools in terms of software and hardware to consistently display anything over HD resolution on your screen. And it's not going to change anytime soon.

 

[FrankJH]

As I said before on the subject - willingness of end user to adopt is irrelevant when the technology offers no provision for delivery. In other words, Samsung can flog you 8k and 16k TV sets for all I care, from broadcasters point of view, there are no standards and no coherent tools in terms of software and hardware to consistently display anything over HD resolution on your screen. And it's not going to change anytime soon.

Except for the fact that "BROADCAST" tv is becoming more and more irrelevant the faster the standard Internet package becomes.

I would guess at a vast majority of tv programs actually consumed are no longer watched while being broadcast.

The UK's internet supply isnt great, but its getting better and relatively quickly.

I wouldnt be suprised if the broadcast system is left behind (remember as of today even the TV licence is catering for iplayer usage) as it just wont be necessary for majority of users.

Admittedly those in more remote parts of the country may well require it for some time to come, but as ~90% now live in "built up" areas its getting less and less relevant.

 

[v0n]

Except for the fact that "BROADCAST" tv is becoming more and more irrelevant the faster the standard Internet package becomes.

It's only irrelevant for a very narrow niche audience. Audience that doesn't do live TV. But vast majority of viewers out there have never subscribed to netflix or prime and never will. Sports, news, studio programming etc is still mostly outside of reach of interest of cord cutters.

But that's not even what I mean - if you have to deliver any programming in real time to 4k/UHD audience you need solid hardware and tools to do so. Filming or capturing a concert, football or boxing match in 4k/UHD isn't a problem. Mixing feed from cameras in real time is mostly not a problem, but from then on the hardware that's needed to do something with that stream and deliver it from a van in the field back to studio on the other side of the world for ingest is still pretty much wing and a prayer uninsurable mess - fringe brands, weird conversions in proprietary tech, lack of coherent standards, half broken compatibilities and so on. In terms of chipsets, acceleration, real time encoding, HEVC is not even at first gen level, there isn't even a proper standard established, it's more like a bunch of loose agreements.