Brexit thread - what happens next

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Soldato
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Given that Scotland voted mostly to stay in the EU and England (apart from London) didn't, I suspect the SNP will use this to push for yet another referendum to try and take Scotland out of the UK.

If THAT happens.... I wonder if Scotland would try to get back into the EU on its own?

Nicola Sturgeon has already said she wants immediate discussions with Brussels to protect Scotland's place in the EU.
 
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If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legislation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-manoeuvred and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.


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Soldato
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It's clearly not going to be as bad as everyone says IMO, very melodramatic response. We will bounce back, trade agreements will be signed and the world will keep turning. We're far to important a cog to simply be tossed aside. This is blatantly clear just from the reasoned response from many strong (in the economical sense) countries leaders.

It seems China is open to talks with the UK on a Trade deal...

China laughs at Britain's hope to negotiate quick free trade deal following Brexit

China Daily reports an estimate doing the rounds is that it will require 500 British negotiators and 10 years before any such deal could materialize

<Posted First in Speakers Corner>

Nate
 
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What is important now is for the remain voters to stop their winging and accept democracy has been served whether they like it or not. Next we all need to pull together to support the government in the upcoming exit negotiations.

Yesterday's drop in the FTSE and pound was mainly caused by the remain campaigns negative assessment of the UK being out of the EU but thankfully the markets soon rallied round and started to reverse the downfall. From what i have read and heard the remain campaigners are doing more damage to the UK than the leave decision!
 
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Well the guardian have pieces on a couple or so people who BRegretted voting leave, well that's about 5 millionth % and "representing" lots of leave voters. The guardian (thumbs down, iOS emoticons don't work here?)

As for another referendum, I couldn't go through it again, nor could Britain I don't think.

I voted leave and remain that way (sorry)

Talking of the guardian and its bedmate the independent, why are they the only papers that appear in the news section on iPad/iPhone ?
 
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Where do we go from here...

Johnson and Gove have to pretend they have some idea what to do next and get on with it while trying to step back from the campaign lies.

Get on and sort out who is going to take over from Cameron. I expect that none of them want to do it right now. By October there will be clear indications what direction the economy is going but someone has to step up , weather the storm and go from there.
 
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I voted conservative and for David Cameron.

My problem is not so much with the result (hey that is democracy) as how badly our politicians and the media on both sides handled the referendum.

The public were badly deceived in particular by the main leave campaign.

the £350 million for the NHS thing being the most obvious but also the immigration thing.

I honestly think most (or at very least a high percentage) voters that voted leave think they have been promised less immigration.

The official leave campaign has never given any such assurance and I believe they intentionally misled the British public on this.

The vote was never do you want less immigration or a different government and I do not think this was made clear enough.

Going forward the thought that Boris Johnson is likely to be Prime minister after so openly lying to the nation makes my skin crawl.
 
Soldato
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Given that Scotland voted mostly to stay in the EU and England (apart from London) didn't, I suspect the SNP will use this to push for yet another referendum to try and take Scotland out of the UK.

If THAT happens.... I wonder if Scotland would try to get back into the EU on its own?

Perhaps Scotland could form a lose alliance with N.Ireland and call it the United Kingdom therefore keeping them EU, while Wales and England leave the union. ;)
 
Soldato
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I personally didn't vote, I didn't feel strongly enough each way. However, in all honesty I was leaning more towards the leave side. I'm excited for the future and incredibly interested to see what happens.

It's clearly not going to be as bad as everyone says IMO, very melodramatic response. We will bounce back, trade agreements will be signed and the world will keep turning. We're far to important a cog to simply be tossed aside. This is blatantly clear just from the reasoned response from many strong (in the economical sense) countries leaders.

What about the global and European companies that have chosen to have their European HQ's in the UK? Large business, large employers and large amounts of both corporate and employee taxes being paid in the UK?

It's all going to go.
 
Soldato
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What about the global and European companies that have chosen to have their European HQ's in the UK? Large business, large employers and large amounts of both corporate and employee taxes being paid in the UK?

It's all going to go.

That's my biggest concern currently but time will tell.
 
Soldato
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Perhaps Scotland could form a lose alliance with N.Ireland and call it the United Kingdom therefore keeping them EU, while Wales and England leave the union. ;)

Err..... if Scotland leaves the UK, England, Wales and Northern Ireland will still be in it. What makes you think Northern Ireland would immediately jump ship and come with us?
 
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