There are two things to consider.
1) Design life
2) MTBF
MTBF on it's own is a fairly poor measure since design life is not considered.
A fictional hard disk drive has a design life of 3 years. Provided I operate within this design life and replace the drive every 3 years the MTBF could be 1.2 Million hours.
This means that if I have a server farm with 1200 drives, 1 drive is expected to fail every 1000 hours (1,200,000 / 1,200) so I should expect to replace a drive every 42 days. I should also expect that 27 drives or 2.25% of the drives will fail in 3 years.
MTBF is ment to be applied to large populations with a defined design life. When the figure is applied to a single unit it can easily exceed design life by an order of magintude.
Personally the drive warranty is a good indicator of design life. Out of warranty = new drive.
"What does MTBF have to do with lifetime? Nothing at all! It is not
at all unusual for things to have MTBF's which significantly exceed
their lifetime as defined by wearout -- in fact, you know many such
things. A "thirty-something" American (well within his constant
failure rate phase) has a failure (death) rate of about 1.1 deaths per
1000 person-years and, therefore, has an MTBF of 900 years (of course
its really 900 person-years per death). Even the best ones, however,
wear out long before that."
http://www.ece.cmu.edu/~ganger/ece546.spring01/papers/mtbf.description
AD