I agree with your entire post, except for this:
I fail to see where Jenson could go and have a realistic chance of winning, other than to sit it out and hope the team comes good under brawn.
If he was truly competitive/ambitious and believed 100% in his own ability (like Hamilton and Senna, before him), then he would ditch Honda, knowing that they are going absolutely nowhere for the forseeable future.
Last year, when Alonso left McLaren, he could've fought tooth and nail to get the vacant McLaren seat, even if he arrived as a No.2, with an agreement not to race Hamilton. He seems good at negotiating good salaries, so I have no doubt he couldve arranged something, even if it meant driving for pennies. This would at least have got him a good car and even if he had to play second fiddle to Hamilton, when Hamilton crashed out, he couldve taken the race by the scruff of the neck and got a podium. Eventually, for 2009, McLaren wouldve given Button the backing he needed.
However, for all of the above to happen, he would need to have an overwhelming desire to win at any cost - which we know he doesnt. Furthermore, he would need to have an unshakable belief in his ability (to go up against Hamilton) - which once again, he probably doesnt have.
Even if Button were to have an epiphony and change his ways, he could still negotiate himself into a better team than Honda, for 2009. If he is persuasive, he might even get into McLaren, if Heikki continues on his low point scoring form. He could also have a chance to join Renault in 2009. There are options, but he has to be totally committed.
Senna, famously came on national TV in 1992 and stated that he would drive for Williams for free. Now thats what I call dedication to cause of winning at any cost. Thats the sort of commitment that any team boss will take notice of. In fact 1.5yrs later, he was a Williams driver.
(What other "gates" will we see over the next couple of years?) I thought nobody would touch him?
he didnt.
This will be my third in a row