ladbrokes, william hill and betfred.

RadoX · 8 Feb 2011 at 22:06

gambitt said:
I don't think that applies to tennis. I backed a player last year who retired after the first set - turns out he was sick the night before and probably wasn't going to turn up. Add those instances up over 8 years including non-triers, guys who wanted to leave ASAP to get to play the qualifying rounds of the next event and it could easily mean the difference between a positive or negative P&L.

I started at around your age and I had some beginners luck before I had a few tough losses which I learned from. I used to have a go on the flat racing but I find it a minefield now. Jockeys taking a pull around the outside of the track when there was no need to, usually following a big drift in the Betfair market...

That sort of inside information is hard to come by as it will probably be kept between sportsman and trainer and neither will want to say anything.

i cant wait for the flat season to start again i find winners so much more easy to predict.

gambitt · 8 Feb 2011 at 22:51

RadoX said:
That sort of inside information is hard to come by as it will probably be kept between sportsman and trainer and neither will want to say anything.

There are people who travel to tennis tournaments just to bet on them. They known as are "courtsiders" and they infuriate the people trading the match in front of the slower TV pictures

.

Word gets around about injuries in the small tennis community, that's why you sometimes see a price on a player drift markedly from say even money to 3/1... then an hour later they walk onto the court with a leg strapped up which wasn't like that the day before!

Other dodgy stuff includes players "tanking" matches (not giving their best effort) especially with lower ranked players who get offered a place in a more lucrative tournament the following week so they'll tank their match in the lesser event to get there in time.

I'm sure you see plenty of dodgy stuff in racing like jockeys who purposefully get stuck in traffic before finally getting on the bridle when it's too late to make it look like he was trying.

Ivan Drago · 8 Feb 2011 at 23:15

RadoX said:
1:15 HOME 2/1 WIN - WON P/L £2
1.35 JACKIE KIELY 7/2 WIN - WON P/L £3.50
2.45 COLORUS 11/4 WIN - SECOND P/L -£1

4.5 POINTS profit.

Are people still dubious to why they wont take my bets ?

Nice day's results.

Post your bets up here for a month and then we can judge how good or bad you are.

RadoX · 9 Feb 2011 at 00:58

Ivan Drago said:
Nice day's results.

Post your bets up here for a month and then we can judge how good or bad you are.

ive posted 2 days in a row both times showing +4.50. Ill post whenever i have the time/feel like it, i sometimes have days where i just cant find anything to bet so i dont.

RadoX · 9 Feb 2011 at 11:15

Profit/loss so far: +9
days posting: 2

Monday, Tuesday are your money days too much racing today! Ill still attempt to pick a winner or two.

1.55 DREAM OF FORTUNE 7/4 - Fit in form horse on AW placed in this race to finally win after a eon of seconds. Gets the Course&Distance, should be a steering job as long as FREE TUSSY doesn't bounce back into old form and SILVER GUEST doesn't greatly improve and get the trip.

only race for me today since i try not to back odds on.

RadoX · 9 Feb 2011 at 11:50

RadoX said:
MONGOOSE ALERT looks a bet at anything like 6/4 - evs tomorrow ill probably be taking it on.

no even money about, so there's no value therefore long term you would make a loss theoretically backing this horse at 4/6. Last night i thought it had about a 50 - 55% win chance. So if the race was run at the same conditions 100 times it would win atleast 50 times so giving it a implied win chance of 1/2 races this converts into 1/1 aka Evens as a price backing at 1/1 over this race ran 100 times you should break dead even so anything over evens would be a profit long term.

^how to find value.

Carefull E/W race 1.10 Punchestown http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=524166&r_date=2011-02-09

market will guide on places.

newbiejim · 9 Feb 2011 at 12:34

RadoX said:
Back horses that have won over Course and Distance and like the ground especially in the testing ground over the jumps even if they are top weight. if you can find a each way able horse in one of these races your onto a place almost certainly.

!

Cadoudalas in the 3:10 Carlisle nearly fits ure theory above, handles the ground, has an Arkle entry too btw.

RadoX · 9 Feb 2011 at 12:41

newbiejim said:
Cadoudalas in the 3:10 Carlisle nearly fits ure theory above, handles the ground, has an Arkle entry too btw.

too bad its not over 5/1 XD it should win but ill just stick to my one today. it loves the mud btw.

newbiejim · 9 Feb 2011 at 15:18

Good old Cadoudalas

For me it rated highly in Form Fitness Class and Conditions, BIG deal was its liking of the ground.

EDIT: it was no value 10/11 , might have been non runners

HAz · 9 Feb 2011 at 15:23

WTH, this thread has turned into some sort of betting addiction thread

RadoX · 9 Feb 2011 at 16:02

newbiejim said:
Good old Cadoudalas

For me it rated highly in Form Fitness Class and Conditions, BIG deal was its liking of the ground.

EDIT: it was no value 10/11 , might have been non runners

you should have took 9/4 this morning there was no NR/rule 4 asfar as im aware

1 bet 1 looser today im 8 points in profit this week now, im thinking of betting something at kempton later.

knowlton · 9 Feb 2011 at 16:46

dowie said:
erm great - its got little to do with the thread tbh.. other than it is also involves gambling. You're rather unlikely to get banned/limited for making use of a signup offer rather they're likely to want you to bet again - its fairly limited anyway...

Also there is still some risk involved depending on the bookie/event you're betting on - as with arb'ing you could end up exposed at the exchanges with one leg.

Not at all - All I'm saying is - if you're going to bet anyway, you might as well turn the free bet they give you in to guaranteed cash. To be honest, I can't see why they would ban you - after all, whether you do matched betting or not, you have the same chances of winning or losing at the bookie.

Also, Betfair (who is a betting exchange and takes the lay bet - see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7109494.stm) isn't going to care as they're an intermediary that only takes commission when you win.

To be honest and I'm only guessing here, bookies are probably only too happy that more people use their services - I know of a few friends who went on FTO and decided to place a cheeky bet afterwards!

knowlton · 9 Feb 2011 at 16:48

HAz said:
WTH, this thread has turned into some sort of betting addiction thread

Lol, it would seem that way!

Personally I don't gamble - but I have nothing against people who don't. My only piece of advice is obvious but important - don't bet with anything you cannot afford to lose.

newbiejim · 9 Feb 2011 at 17:30

RadoX said:
you should have took 9/4 this morning there was no NR/rule 4 asfar as im aware

1 bet 1 looser today im 8 points in profit this week now, im thinking of betting something at kempton later.

Knockara Beau was a great bet, I thought it would have been much shorter, 2nd to Grand Crus last time, think it won @ 11/4. Think I should now open a thread for saturday's racing in Sports as we are maybe at risk of not being GD material

newbiejim · 9 Feb 2011 at 17:46

Ok so started thread....Riches Beyond Belief Here

RadoX · 9 Feb 2011 at 18:01

newbiejim said:
Knockara Beau was a great bet, I thought it would have been much shorter, 2nd to Grand Crus last time, think it won @ 11/4. Think I should now open a thread for saturday's racing in Sports as we are maybe at risk of not being GD material

no after timing

i think everyone in the uk was on that after grand crus'es form boost

el_dazza · 9 Feb 2011 at 18:12

RadoX said:
no after timing i think everyone in the uk was on that after grand crus'es form boost

I couldn't believe Grand Crus was 9/4 last Saturday. Won like a dream. World Hurdle for that one?

RadoX · 9 Feb 2011 at 18:23

el_dazza said:
I couldn't believe Grand Crus was 9/4 last Saturday. Won like a dream. World Hurdle for that one?

He has to take on big bucks, i wont even be backing in this race and i will be there.

Also if your waiting for Cheltenham and studying ill save you some work DO NOT BACK LONG RUN, i backed him e/w in the King George i was happy but he likes flat tracks and wont run any sort of race at the festival some of the prices for him are ridiculous considering his past Cheltenham form.

also Denman for the gold cup.

thepeganator · 9 Feb 2011 at 21:31

Got a 4% arb if anyone is interested, I should make £14 off it

(all I can stake atm)

thepeganator · 9 Feb 2011 at 22:52

Lol nice one here, Gateshead vs Rushden

Gateshead at 4.00 at ****,
Draw Or Rushden & Diamonds (Double Chance) at 1.5 at ****
Bet £100 and £37.50 and you have £12.50 profit whatever happens.

9.1% profit on one bet guaranteed, wish I hadn't tied up all my money earlier!

Let me know if you want the bookies, starred them out for now (no I don't ask anything in return, just not a good idea to post arbs publicly).