So when does everyone recon the ip5 will come out?

Back to the June timescales. Some were saying that the 4S only came out because of unexpected delays with the 5.
 
Well the ip4 users will be out of contract in June.

I think another year though...maybe more?
 
the majoirty of Apple products only have a 6 month shelf life

How can you argue that, when (a) there's been a minimum of 1 year between iPhone releases, and (b) all iPhones have had software updates for 2-3 years? By any definition of shelf life, an iPhone's good for much more than 6 months!

I think Apple will aim for next Oct-Nov. Clearly the delay on the 4S was unintentional, but I doubt Apple will be too concerned about getting back to a July release. With each iPhone model selling well for much more than a year, it makes little commercial sense to limit the 4S to an eight-month run. As long as it's out in good time before the festive season, there's no rush.
 
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