Lottery Odds

Bumhug · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:01

Burnsy2023 said:
They are the same fraction.

It has nothing to do with fractions

There are 14 million combinations of numbers, if you buy one set of numbers you have a 1 in 14 million chance of winning. Buying 2 sets of numbers does nothing to the amount of combinations, there is still 14 million only you now have a 2nd chance to win hence 2 in 14 million.

Hence the lottery is an idiot tax, as vast majority of people who play it cant understand simple maths :rolleyes:

BombayMix · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:01

Burnsy2023 said:
They are the same fraction.

No it isn't simple fractions but your logic you'll only need a handful of tickets to have a 100% of winning.

jellybeard999 · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:01

But if you don't play the next draw, surely that offsets the increase?

ie 1/14 + 1/14 = 2/14 + 0/14

Haircut · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:02

BombayMix said:
No it isn't simple fractions but your logic you'll only need a handful of tickets to have a 100% of winning.

using his logic you need 14 million tickets to have a 100% chance of winning.

aardvark · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:05

BombayMix said:
No it isn't simple fractions but your logic you'll only need a handful of tickets to have a 100% of winning.

no - it becomes 3/14m (1/466,666,666) or 4/14m (1/3.5m) etc.

the only way to get 100% is 14m/14m

MooMoo444 · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:06

After studying this thread, and bouncing the replies back and forth between the worlds top scientists, I can now reveal...

When you buy more tickets, you have a better chance of winning.

Jono8 · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:07

BombayMix said:
No it isn't simple fractions but your logic you'll only need a handful of tickets to have a 100% of winning.

kaiowas · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:07

Reaper 392 said:
the only way you could improve your chances of winning is by going for twelve lines in the easiest to win draw. assuming all twelve all have the same chance of winning then there is no improvement no matter what combination you make

Really? Lets use simple numbers to prove the point....

Lets say that any given ticket for a draw has a 1 in 3 chance of winning and that you wish to buy 2 tickets.

If you bought 2 tickets for the same draw you'd have a 2/3 chance of winning that draw and zero chance of winning the second draw. Total chance of winning something=2/3

If you bought 2 tickets for different draws:
You have a 1/3 chance of winning each draw in isolation
Therefore a 2/3 chance of not winning each draw
You're chances of not winning either of the draws would be 2/3 * 2/3 = 4/9
And you're chances of winning something are therefore 1- 4/9 = 5/9

2/3 = 6/9 which so buying multiple tickets for the same draw gives you a slightly better chance of winning something, this arises due to the fact that by buying tickets for multiple draws you have a very small chance of winning more than once.

Reeve · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:09

Spleenus said:
Yes he would have a 1 in 2 chance of winning the jackpot, providing each one of his tickets has a unique set of numbers.

That was the point i was trying to put across to GMAN, i guess i wasn't clear enough

As for the ops question, is there really any difference if you put 12 numbers in the same draw its 12/14million and if you put 12 numbers in seperate draws its still 12*1/14million. I can see where the ops coming from but it doesn't make any real difference at the end of the day.

I guess the smartest option would be to put all 12 tickets into the first rollover of the month so atleast if you do get more than 3 numbers, the payout would be greater.

Smoking Man · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:09

14m doesn't give you 100% as they duplicate combinations.

BombayMix · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:10

er the OP seems to think buying a second ticket doubles your odds by halfing the number of combinations. Like Bumhug says it doesn't. Buying a second ticket is statically insignificant.

Abraham · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:11

Bumhug said:
It has nothing to do with fractions

There are 14 million combinations of numbers, if you buy one set of numbers you have a 1 in 14 million chance of winning. Buying 2 sets of numbers does nothing to the amount of combinations, there is still 14 million only you now have a 2nd chance to win hence 2 in 14 million.

Hence the lottery is an idiot tax, as vast majority of people who play it cant understand simple maths

1 : 14000000
2 : 7000000
4 : 3500000
8 : 1750000
16 : 875000
32 : 437500
64 : 218750
128 : 109375
256 : 54687.5

I don't understand why people are coming in calling people stupid when they don't understand how simple it is.
buying two tickets does halve your odds, however it's still ridiculously long odds, it is the scale of the odds which makes it an idiot tax, not because people cannot understand them.

krooton · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:11

Bumhug said:
It has nothing to do with fractions

There are 14 million combinations of numbers, if you buy one set of numbers you have a 1 in 14 million chance of winning. Buying 2 sets of numbers does nothing to the amount of combinations, there is still 14 million only you now have a 2nd chance to win hence 2 in 14 million.

Hence the lottery is an idiot tax, as vast majority of people who play it cant understand simple maths

This.

If you reverse the numbers it's easier to see.

If you have 1 ticket, you have a 13,999,999 in 14,000,000 chance of losing.
If you have 2 tickets, you have a 13,999,998 in 14,000,000 chance of losing.

Doubling the number of tickets does not halve the odds.

Each additional unique ticket increases your percentile chance of winning by 1/14,000,000 percent.

Abraham · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:12

Smoking Man said:
14m doesn't give you 100% as they duplicate combinations.

why are they duplicate? there are c. 14m combinations, hence the 1/14m odds.
if you had 14m unique tickets, then you would have 1/1 odds of winning the jackpot, and indeed every other prize going.

MooMoo444 · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:12

BombayMix said:
er the OP seems to think buying a second ticket doubles your odds but reducing the number of combinations. Like Bumhug says it doesn't. Buying a second ticket is statically insignificant.

You could write it as 10/70million chance, or 1/7million, they both mean the same thing. o.o

krooton · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:14

MooMoo444 said:
You could write it as 10/70million chance, or 1/7million, they both mean the same thing. o.o

No, having 2 tickets does not mean that 7million other combinations suddenly vanish.

Smoking Man · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:15

Abraham said:
why are they duplicate? there are c. 14m combinations, hence the 1/14m odds.
if you had 14m unique tickets, then you would have 1/1 odds of winning the jackpot, and indeed every other prize going.

Oh right, I was assuming the tickets were randomly generated.

Haircut · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:15

krooton said:
Doubling the number of tickets does not halve the odds.

Each additional unique ticket increases your percentile chance of winning by 1/14,000,000 percent.

Yes it does.

If you have one ticket your chance of winning is 0.00000715%
If you have two tickets your chance of winning is 0.0000143%
Exactly double.

I think this is relevant

http://xkcd.com/985/

Irish_Tom · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:18

krooton said:
This.

If you reverse the numbers it's easier to see.

If you have 1 ticket, you have a 13,999,999 in 14,000,000 chance of losing.
If you have 2 tickets, you have a 13,999,998 in 14,000,000 chance of losing.

Doubling the number of tickets does not halve the odds.

Each additional unique ticket increases your percentile chance of winning by 1/14,000,000 percent.

This is how I've always understood it, but you beat me to it.

aardvark · 9 Jan 2012 at 13:19

Abraham said:
1 : 14000000
2 : 7000000
4 : 3500000
8 : 1750000
16 : 875000
32 : 437500
64 : 218750
128 : 109375
256 : 54687.5

I don't understand why people are coming in calling people stupid when they don't understand how simple it is.
buying two tickets does halve your odds, however it's still ridiculously long odds, it is the scale of the odds which makes it an idiot tax, not because people cannot understand them.

this is exactly how it works - look it up thickos.