Lottery Odds
- Thread starter Skull
- Start date
No, 2 draws would mean 2 attempts at 1/2, you don't just add them together. The odds for winning both attempts would be 1/4, I think the odds for winning one of them would be something like 3/4, to work that out you're supposed to calculate the odds of not winning either or both and subtract from 1 (certainty). It's been a while since I did stats and i'm meant to be working, so I can't double check
You're making the assumption that each time the lottery is drawn the numbers cannot be the same as any set that have previously been drawn, which is not true.
Fair enough, then this is where the idiot tax aspect comes in.
When people see something going from 1 in 14mill to 1 in 7mill, they believe that rather than having to match 1 out of a pool of 14mill, they now only have to match 1 out of a pool of 7mill, which isn't actually true.
Yes, your odds are slightly better putting it all on one week. In fact, you should really work out what you would be prepared to put on the lottery in your lifetime and put the whole lot on one week and never buy another ticket again but I digress.
As stated, your odds are slightly better than putting it on each week.
eg 1 ticket is 1 in 14million. If you buy one each week for 2 weeks then your odds of winning are 2 in 14 million or 1 in 7 million.
If you buy both tickets for the same week and miss the following week out then your odds of winning are 1 in 14 million plus 1 in 13,999,999 so slightly better than 2 in 14 million.
However, that is only for the jackpot. You odds of winning anything each week in the lotto is 1 in 54 (approx)
So in the above example, one ticket per week for two weeks, your chances of winning something is 2 in 54 = 1 in 27 or 3.70%
If you put both tickets on the same week your odds are 1 in 54 plus 1 in 53 = 3.73% so slightly improved.
One big tip though whichever way you do it, pick all your numbers so they are above 31. This will maximise your lottery wins when you do win as a larger proportion of people use birthdays so 1 to 12 are the most popular picked numbers followed by 13 to 31.
I did this when we ran a lottery on when 5 numbers came up our winnings were about double what the were when low numbers came up.
The only stat AFIK the lottery has ever released is that if 1,2,3,4,5,6 ever came up there would be 10,000 winners in that week so with a jackpot of say £6m, they would each get £600
As stated, your odds are slightly better than putting it on each week.
eg 1 ticket is 1 in 14million. If you buy one each week for 2 weeks then your odds of winning are 2 in 14 million or 1 in 7 million.
If you buy both tickets for the same week and miss the following week out then your odds of winning are 1 in 14 million plus 1 in 13,999,999 so slightly better than 2 in 14 million.
However, that is only for the jackpot. You odds of winning anything each week in the lotto is 1 in 54 (approx)
So in the above example, one ticket per week for two weeks, your chances of winning something is 2 in 54 = 1 in 27 or 3.70%
If you put both tickets on the same week your odds are 1 in 54 plus 1 in 53 = 3.73% so slightly improved.
One big tip though whichever way you do it, pick all your numbers so they are above 31. This will maximise your lottery wins when you do win as a larger proportion of people use birthdays so 1 to 12 are the most popular picked numbers followed by 13 to 31.
I did this when we ran a lottery on when 5 numbers came up our winnings were about double what the were when low numbers came up.
The only stat AFIK the lottery has ever released is that if 1,2,3,4,5,6 ever came up there would be 10,000 winners in that week so with a jackpot of say £6m, they would each get £600
Well not really, there's always a chance
Seems that the people who do win usually tend to be people who lose it all in no time though
Apart from the last couple of Euromillions winners who seemed to be decent family people!
Surely that's not true? How does the output of one draw have any affect on a subsequent draw?
Surely your odds would be 2/28Million or 1 in 14 million?
That as humans we draw significance from certain combinations of numbers, when they're only as likely as every other combination.
Hence Feynman's tongue in cheek comment about some arbitrary registration plate somehow being significant.
Caporegime
- Joined
- 13 May 2003
- Posts
- 34,564
- Location
- Warwickshire
Equal chance as all combinations, but imagine the hilarity if 1-6 did come out in the lotto ^^ 7 as the bonus ball for extra lulz?
+1.
You may have to double your chance of winning many many many times over to half your chance of losing.
Man of Honour
- Joined
- 17 Nov 2003
- Posts
- 36,747
- Location
- Southampton, UK
Indeed, but you would be worse off going for that set of number due to having to share the pot with so many other people who choose this combination.
Another point to bring home about how unlikely you will ever win the lottery is as follows.
The odds of winning are approx 1 in 14 million.
There are less than 56 million adults in the uk.
Your odds of winning are the same as the next person to knock on your front door will be the Stig, David Cameron, Michael Caine or Ewan Mcgregor. You think that is likely?
Don't forget it has to be the next person that knocks. If your neighbour knocks first and then later today David Cameron knocks it doesn't count.
If fact, statistically, as a man, you have more chance of dating a top model than you do of winning the lottery in your lifetime.
The odds of winning are approx 1 in 14 million.
There are less than 56 million adults in the uk.
Your odds of winning are the same as the next person to knock on your front door will be the Stig, David Cameron, Michael Caine or Ewan Mcgregor. You think that is likely?
Don't forget it has to be the next person that knocks. If your neighbour knocks first and then later today David Cameron knocks it doesn't count.
If fact, statistically, as a man, you have more chance of dating a top model than you do of winning the lottery in your lifetime.
'perceiving this differently'
Were you a politician in your previous life?
What I am getting at is that buying more tickets doesn't reduce the overall number of combinations that could be drawn, just how many of those combinations you could possibly match.
When you drop something like lottery odds to the lowest common denominator, normal people believe that the overall number of combinations that could be drawn decreases, which isn't true.
If they expressed the odds in percentage form, fewer people would bother trying.