Do extra terrestrials exist? If so...

Davepen said:
We have different opinions, so no use arguing about it :)

You assume we are alone, admittedly, based on no evidence to the contrary.

I assume we are not alone, based on the sheer size of the universe and probability.

I like the idea that we are not alone, and one day, we will find out that we're not. But probably not in our life time :(
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We do have different opinions, but not about the plausibility of life on other planets....only over the truth value of any statements thereof.:)

I am not making any assumptions, I simply do not know and until such time as some direct evidence is forthcoming I remain firmly in the I don't know camp....while keeping as up to date on the search as I can be.....:)
 
Davepen said:
[..]

You assume we are alone, admittedly, based on no evidence to the contrary.

[..]
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No, he doesn't. He's said he doesn't. Other people have said he doesn't. He has never said that he does, or even implied that he does.

Why are you claiming that he does?
 
Glaucus said:
What probability? Probability means we now stuff. We don't know anything. And no castiel position is not the opposite of yours. He doesn't know.
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Probability is ordinarily used to describe an attitude of mind towards some proposition of whose truth we are not certain.

So not "we know" but more, it is probable, likely, but not 100%

I don't know either, but I'm well and truly in the camp that assumes that there is intelligent life out there.

None of us know for certain.
 
No, probability is using knowledge to come up with a best case equation. We have zero knowledge therefore zero equation. Which means any probability is plucked out of thin air.
 
Davepen said:
I don't know either, but I'm well and truly in the camp that assumes that there is intelligent life out there.
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Which is a faith position, you put faith in the outcome based on at best, inconclusive and circumstantial data......

There is nothing wrong with that as long as you are not dismissing others holding equally valid positions based solely on that belief.

The best way to look at a probability is in whether by assessing the probability is it worth continuing to investigate the possibility associated with the probability of it being true....I would, as an exceptionally inquisitive individual, say absolutely....but I reserve making any judgements until that investigation gives up some solid evidence of that or an associated outcome.
 
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Glaucus said:
No, probability is using knowledge to come up with a best case equation. We have zero knowledge therefore zero equation. Which means any probability is plucked out of thin air.
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We don't have 0 knowledge..


We have the knowledge that we exist.

We have the knowledge of the size of the known universe.

Scientists can work out probability based on those and other factors.

That "thin air" is filled with a **** loads of galaxies, stars, planets, black holes, dark matter, and so much more that we can barely even comprehend.
 
Glaucus said:
What probability? Probability means we now stuff. We don't know anything.
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We do know two relevant things:

The universe is very big.
Life can exist.

So we can say that it does seem probable that life exists elsewhere, simply because life is a possibility and there are so many possible places for it. Even if life is so rare that only one in a billion billion stellar systems contains life, that would still be thousands of stellar systems containing life.

Although it may be that although life is a possibility it is so improbable that it has only happened here. It's not true that we don't know anything, but it is true that we know very little. We can't put any reliable numbers on the probability and even if we could then it would still only be a probability. The probability of rolling a 6 on a fair dice is 1 in 6, but you could still roll it 100 times and never roll a 6.
 
No they can't work out probability as a large number of the variables are unknown. The main one being the chance of like this could be 1/10 it it could be 1/ in trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion.

So any probability you think exists like the drake equation is utterly meaningless and can be made to fit any number you wish.
 
Angilion said:
. It's not true that we don't know anything, but it is true that we know very little.
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Thing is I'm not talking about everything. We know absolutely nothing on the probability of life and how rare or common it is. We can't even guess. In this area we know nothing at all.
 
Davepen said:
We have the knowledge that we exist.
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To some extent we do, although whether we can categorically prove that we exist in the way we think we do is subjective to our perception....we essentially make an assumption based on our perception of reality. We can't even agree on whether we have Free Will or not, although the common perception is that we do.....that doesn't make it absolute however.

Davepen said:
We have the knowledge of the size of the known universe.
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We have certain assumptions about the size of the universe, not absolute knowledge.


Davepen said:
Scientists can work out probability based on those and other factors.
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Using assumptions and probabilities of a myriad of other assumptions being true.

Davepen said:
That "thin air" is filled with a **** loads of galaxies, stars, planets, black holes, dark matter, and so much more that we can barely even comprehend.
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The highlighted part is the important part....we are ultimately making assumptions, there is little, if any direct evidence.
 
The Drake equation makes me laugh. guess * guess * guess = guess. It's just a guess dressed up as an equation.
 
Glaucus said:
Thing is I'm not talking about everything. We know absolutely nothing on the probability of life and how rare or common it is. We can't even guess. In this area we know nothing at all.
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We do know something about the probability of life. We know that it isn't zero.
 
An important thing to keep in mind about the Drake equation is not so much the numbers it can predict, but the fact that it gives us a formula to plug numbers into. The numbers it can generate will become increasingly accurate as variables are worked out and refined. For example since we have started to detect planets wholesale we can input more accurate data than Drakes day when such things could only be guessed on. It is the framework that it provides that is the genius of it.
 
Angilion said:
We do know something about the probability of life. We know that it isn't zero.
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Great how does that narrow the probability down for life else where. Or their stance that it's a statistical certainty. For either of those claims we need to know a huge amount and in these areas we know nothing.
 
I had a entire evening of farts that managed to evacuate every living person in the room each time not long ago. I couldn't smell a thing, my logic says I have been an experiment in one of their ships...
 
Glaucus said:
Great how does that narrow the probability down for life else where. Or their stance that it's a statistical certainty. For either of those claims we need to know a huge amount and in these areas we know nothing.
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It depends on your thinking really.

We know a great deal more than you seem to think.

But is all just educated guesses :)

What do you believe?
 
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