Soldato
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Rendering your argument, Bulldog, invalid...the guy who made it up says it's made up! You can't then claim it's partially accurate.
Do extra terrestrials exist? If so...
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Rendering your argument, Bulldog, invalid...the guy who made it up says it's made up! You can't then claim it's partially accurate.
True it will never be accurate science, but it gives a reference point. Another thing to think about is could Drake himself have ever predicted how it would expand into the mainstream.
Soldato
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It gives an estimation of the possible number of planets which could support life, but it's possibly the most wildly inaccurate scientific estimate ever!
It gives us a reference point to explore the possibility, by it's very nature it has to make some very large assumptions and is really only of any use in stimulating discussion rather than trying to draw any conclusions from the results. That is not to suggest that the probabilities are not relevant to any discussion, but the same can be said for Fermi's paradox and any number of other hypotheses....
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Soldato
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I don't think they're searching for alien life at Cern...it's more likely to give us answers about the composition of the structure of the universe, as opposed to what could be out there.
You're not just going on probability though - the probability is unknown. It's faulty logic to say the huge number of stars/planets in the universe makes it a statistical certainty that we're not alone because the chance of life arising could be, being cynical, so vanishingly small that even given the vast number of stars/planets, it could still be trillions-to-one that intelligent life arises in the entire universe, and we could well be it. We simply dont know because we currently have a sample size of one single example of life occuring. With that and the uncertainty of other inputs of the Drake equation, one can plug in arguably plausible values for the variables and get anything from countless millions of civilisations buzzing around to most likely just us. We have some reason to be optimistic, I guess, since life seems to have sprung up pretty much as soon as it could be expected to after the late bombardment, but that's no grounds to be putting solid numbers on probabilites. Even if we find life in our solar system we still have a **** sample size for putting a number on the probability of abiogenesis occuring in the wider universe.
So chalk me up as truly agnostic like Castiel.
Having made my position clear, and you can probably guess my level of skepticism of UFO stories, I'll share my own anyway
. Happened a long time ago now and I still haven't explained it to my satisfaction...Mid 90's in my teens my bedroom was in the loft, and I'd often open the window and stare at the night sky generally contemplating the awesomeness of the universe and wondering about it and what could be out there, etc etc. One night I was doing just this and a light caught my attention in the sky like a yellow star coming into view not too far off the horizon in terms of elevation. It became clearer and brighter and I could soon see it was moving relative to stars. As it approached I could eventually determine it was multiple sources of yellow light rather than one and as they passed rapidly directly overhead I could clearly see it was four yellow point lights in a 45 degree diagonal 'formation'. I ran down the loft stairs to the other side of the house but knew I'd be far too slow to see them again. The whole event from first noticing them in the distance to passing overhead lasted around 5 seconds.
So what was that then??
Can't have been regular planes because at the speed they traversed the sky which was very much like when a low flying fighter jet passes over, any plane would have been deafeningly loud, and these were silent. Missiles? Over Bedford? Something burning up in the atmosphere? Possible but I've seen hundreds of normal 'shooting stars' and this was nothing like them - fainter, yellower, far too long in the sky, etc, but maybe? I guess I have to also accept that me hallucinating the whole thing is up there on the list of possibile explanations way above aliens, but that sits uncomfortably with me as I've never to my knowledge hallucinated anything at all before or since, even, regrettably, when experimenting with interesting mushrooms later in life.So yeah - cool story bro, etc. Really wonder what that was. Wonder if anybody has that facepalm obvious answer?
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Which in turn could throw up new theory's about life,we simply don't know yet
I was listening to Brian Cox the other day and he said so far for every answer they have gotten from both the Tevatron and the LHC they have created a thousand questions.....
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Which in turn could throw up new theory's about life,we simply don't know yet
Quite possibly! I look forward to hearing anything they do find out.
The definition only stands when everybody is playing by the same rules and i'm sure you don't need me to tell you that they don't. For one it depends on who is doing the classifying along with their level of competence and expertise.
I understand why you have said what you said and ordinarily I would be forced to agree, but let me give you an example of what it is that I mean. Some years ago I was out in the countryside with a load of mates when one of them suddenly pointed to the sky indicating he could see a ufo. Within seconds two or three of the others with him began to say they could see a UFO. By the time they had finished they were all seeing UFOs. Unfortunately for them there was nothing there and I should know I was standing with them. For the rest of the afternoon every malformed cloud and speck in the distance laughibly became a UFO.
Later that afternoon convinced that they had seen something genuine they rang BUFORA who turned up to interview them and report that they had seen a genuine UFO. It was even in the newspapers: UFO flap over Midlands when they had seen bugger-all? Now how many people must there be out there reporting the most mundane of things that are simply being classified as genuine UFOs?
I'm afraid I'm with the skeptics on this one (and I'm a believer) as the definition/phrase UFO seems to me to be overused. I'm sure there must be thousands or even millions of cases of people claiming UFO when a common or mundane explanation is more than likely to be the case.
If I have read you properly, your definition of the term UFO-in its present form has the effect of allowing anything that cannot be ascertained to be classed as a "genuine" UFO despite any number of reasons for being unable to describe it:
In all fairness to you you might regard what I would class as a correct interpretation or use of the term UFO as too stringent. This I would class as a good thing as a label (UFO) in itself is too weak to be able to provide anything without any solid evidence and in its present form, not fit for purpose.
By way of example, the latest abuse of the term UFO is a clothlike metalic object which looks like it has a piece of yarn hanging from it, floating (not flying) around the space shuttle.
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@ethan:
I was refering to the official classification and subsequent investigation, not the wider cultural use of it. Note I only ever refered to unidentified objects, rather than the abbreviation UFO, as not to confuse the issue.
"The Air Force initially defined UFOs as those objects that remain unidentified after scrutiny by expert investigators."
It is only become ambiguous and commonly refered to any unidentified flying object because of media and public perception.
Therefore my definition stands and even more so given your above post.
I was refering to the official classification and subsequent investigation, not the wider cultural use of it. Note I only ever refered to unidentified objects, rather than the abbreviation UFO, as not to confuse the issue.
"The Air Force initially defined UFOs as those objects that remain unidentified after scrutiny by expert investigators."
It is only become ambiguous and commonly refered to any unidentified flying object because of media and public perception.
Therefore my definition stands and even more so given your above post.
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Do you believe in extra terrestials/aliens? If so why? or Why do you not believe?
Have you had a personal experience that is unexplainable or has your own reseach in ufology reinforced your own belief? Please share
I'd like to believe.. If not its an awful waste of space.
First paragraph and second one I would agree with entirely.It seems I misunderstood or did not pay particular attention to the context in which youwere using the term. Apologies. In the second paragraph you say initially. Has that changed.
Its the third paragraph that I take issue with as it clearly doesn't work.
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it hasn't changed afaik, although I think it is refering to the subsequent spread of the term, and several efforts to change the classification.....I suspect that there are several abbreviations and official terms which amount to the same thing.
I think that the term has simply become synonomous with ET's in public perception...I don't think it impacts any official classification as such.
There is a paper that delves a little bit deeper into your point, if anyone wants to read it. One of the threes contributors is from Nasa.
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1104/1104.4462.pdf
Still reading this,but this popped up in it(In the extreme case, humanity is the only intelligent civilization in the galaxy or even in the universe.)Like i said before i find this scary
going to read the rest now and cheer myself up i hope I remember one night when I walked the 7 or so miles home from Sunderland to my town. I walked across the cliff tops at around 6 in the morning in the winter. I will always remember looking out at see and seeing 2 green and 2 red lights zipping around low on the horizon. I still blame it on the alcohol but it was the most unusual thing I have seen.