So here we are about 3 or 4 days away from what may be the worst storm for the Northeast since humans populated the area. I'm not kidding, that is a possibility. We know neither how strong this beast will be or exactly who will get the worst of it. Why? Because what is about to happen is unprecedented in the years that human have attempted to understand how the atmosphere works.
Hurricanes have merged with colder air as an energetic jet stream interacts before. But perhaps not with the intensity of the factors coming into play this time. A similar scenario has happened before, back in 1991 ... the "Perfect Storm" of movie and book lore was born. Forecasts of that storm were awful leading up to it. The center of that system never made landfall along the East Coast. In fact, at its strongest the core of that storm was a few hundred miles east of New England. Here's what resulted: 80 mph winds and 25-foot waves on the Massachusetts Coast. Offshore buoys recorded 40-foot waves (that is enough to swallow a fishing boat). The Maryland Coast recorded record high tides. The lowest barometric pressure with that storm was 972 mb (that corresponds to 28.70" for those of you who are familiar with those units). Some computer forecast models drop the lowest pressure with Sandy to below 940 mb (27.75"). If you have a barometer at home, take a look at it - it doesn't go that low.
If that occurs, this storm will bring the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded on the East Coast. Low pressure means wind, an tropical storm force winds already extend hundreds of miles away from the center of Sandy. Some believe as the storm approaches the coast it may intensify which means stronger winds. That means a widespread area of damage and power outages in the most populated part of the country. I feel there is a good chance we will still have some areas, perhaps entire communities, that lose power and still do not have it come Election Day a week later. Think about that ... no power on Election Day ... a hanging chad could pale in comparison.
But here's the problem ... the computer forecast models that all the forecasters will lean on so heavily have no chance of getting this exactly right. Models are either configured (numerically, in terms of the mathematical equations that drive them), to handle either tropical system well, or what we call mid-latitude systems well, that is ones with warm and cold air clashing. There is no model that handles both well. If there were we would have one great model and my life would be far less stressful. The hurricane will merge with colder air and energy from the jet stream and transition from a tropical system into what we call an extratropical one. Historically the computer forecast models are not good when this happens. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast takes Sandy early Tuesday into the New Jersey or Deleware Coast on a westward track (which by the way has NEVER happened since we have been keeping track of these sort of things).
They may be weighing the models that handle tropical system a bit more heavily, but those models should become less accurate as the colder, mid-latitude air works into Sandy's circulation near landfall. As of early this afternoon we have a threat or landfall anywhere between the eastern shore of Maryland and Massachusetts. It may be later Monday or even as late as early Wednesday. We will hear about this storm for weeks after it happens. Homes will fall into the ocean and lives will be lost. If the damaging winds are widespread enough, it may be one of the costliest weather events in U.S. history due to the population likely affected.
Hopefully those near and along the coast in the Northeast are preparing for what will certainly be one for the ages.
