Part of me thinks Windows on ARM is doomed once these Atoms start hitting.
Maybe, maybe not.
Currently, all the Win RT tabs are running on A9 generation hardware. Once A15 hardware starts trickling out we'll see performance skyrocket and battery life improve too.
Don't underestimate the advantages of ARM over x86.
I'm a big fan of ARM stuff but I still can't shake the feeling that once Intel get parity, even if they are second best, then the x86 compatibility is going to swing it for most people especially on hybrid devices.
I've had similar thoughts but Intel will have to be able to offer something just as efficient and cheap before ARM becomes redundant. Are there any other factors that matter?
Clover trail is faster than ARM A9, yet offers the same battery life. ARM A15 will be as fast as Clover Trail, maybe slightly faster, but not by enough for anyone to ever notice the difference (looks roughly the same from benches i've seen). Battery life remains about the same on A15 as well. Intel are also selling Clover Trail SoC's to OEM's for £10 - £15, way cheaper than Intel have ever sold CPU's in the past. Thats still not quite as cheap as ARM SoC's but not much difference. But theres no longer any reason why Clover Trail tablets cant be as cheap as ARM/Win RT tablets.
So in every area that matters Intel have now matched ARM. Theres just no reason at all the go for Win RT.
Then next year, around April, Intel will have Haswell which is based on their Core CPU's. It will be atleast 7% faster than Sandy Bridge i3/i5/i7's at the same clocks, but more importanly Intel will have versions as low as 7 watt.
ARM and Clover Trail are 2 - 3w. But at 7w it may just about be possible to have fanless tablet designs. At the very least we'll get much longer battery life on these tablets, and in thinner/lighter designs that come close to ARM/Clover Trail tablets, but with infinitely better performance. It's just another nail in the Win RT coffin.
I like ARM, especially because they're a British company, but cant see them competing with a giant like Intel now that they've got off their arse and are finally taking mobile CPU's seriously.
So in every area that matters Intel have now matched ARM. Theres just no reason at all the go for Win RT.
These are all valid points you make however you are missing one key point. Arm don't make CPUs, they license the technology. This is the key benefit of arm designs for systems integrators. They can buy an arm license and then get the chips fabricated by whoever has the best process or yields. This is one of the reasons Apple is so keen on Arm.
By going with Intel you are at the mercy of their fabrication plants and roll out plans. You only have to look at the current farce that is the Clovertrail launch to see why there are many benefits to Arm beyond performance or power saving.
What you say makes perfect sense but then why has Microsoft gone to the trouble and expense of providing their platform with ARM support? I suppose it could simply be along the same lines as Windows Phone 7 to garner support for the Windows platform while the market transitions but that seems too simple an answer.
I've had similar thoughts but Intel will have to be able to offer something just as efficient and cheap before ARM becomes redundant. Are there any other factors that matter?
It pretty much hinges on what happens to the desktop. If we get the 100% metro experience whether it's called Windows 9, 10 or just RT and runs on ARM or Intel then they can drop the Win32 support even on the x86 machines.
That will standardize the platform with the exception of x86 gadgets being able to upgrade to Windows Pro and access the desktop and broader ranges of peripherals and software.
We'll see though, I'm just thinking out loud.
I can't see the desktop going full Metro. So many business apps won't even run on Win7 let alone being coded for Win8 native.
