'Contact lost' with Malaysia Airlines plane

[Amp34]

Hugh swatches of desert don't count as an airfield capable of retaining a 777 safely. If it is crashed that's another matter, but if it landed for the reasons of ransom, it is very unlikely to be somewhere out of coverage.
Also with several hundred on the plane, it would require many hostage takers to shepherd such a group, and stop potential calls. It is very unlikely.
Crash in middle of nowhere (or sea) more likely.

Also remember this region is VERY heavily populated. Plans cover large amounts of ground while trying to land, they just don't pop down in a couple of miles. This would be passed to local source, main media, and international media in swift order.

The previous post of mine wasnt in response to your post but it covers most of the details. The desert is huge and could easily hold a plane that has landed. The important question would be whether the plane could take off again. An interdune area could be a safe landing location for a plane, or more likely a safe crash landing location. Phone signal would be non existent. If it did land for reasons or ransom only an idiot would ring from the location they were holding the plane... More likely if there was a ransom demand the aim would be to keep the plane location hidden and ring from elsewhere, with communication via satellite phone. That's if ransom was the aim, which seems odd considering the searching many countries have done over the last few days.

I just done believe (at the moment) that after what seems like a lot of planning and knowledge of planes the plane ran out of fuel and ditched. If ditching was the intention then they would have done it straight away. Obviously there is the potential for the pilot to be forced to fly somewhere against their will by hijack and run out of fuel but the currently reported situation would imply that isn't the case (purposely avoiding military radar locations etc.)

I'm not saying a desert landing is the most likely option, just that it would certainly be possible as that desert is easily big enough to land a plane with no knowledge from the outside world. If there were people who saw it then they would probably be nomads with no knowledge of a plane being hijacked in the first place (and possibly taking days/weeks before they got somewhere they could report a downed plane).

 

[Lysander]

Do some reading instead of asking and you will find out.

Why can't you just tell us if you know? What a strange reaction.

 

[Amp34]

Interestingly the 'northern' route is completely over populated land heading into mountainous regions.
'Southern route I know nothing about, unless they were off to see penguins.

I agree there, it would have to bypass a number of military radar systems, which I pointed out earlier in the thread would seem farsical, however considering it seemed to get through malaysian military radar without being called up its possible it went through others, was registered but not challenged. Malaysia have asked many other nations for their data so perhaps they can start plotting the route. Its feasable that no one thought about checking until it started to become apparent it didn't just crash. Flying over populated areas isn't too much of an issue if it kept high enough not to be noticed, it's just another plane.

The southern route just doesn't make sense, unless you start to invoke some huge conspiracy theory involving the US, which I refuse to believe without at least some evidence...

Edit: it's not so much a 'route' as somewhere along that line the last ping was sent.

 

[Destination]

The desert is huge and could easily hold a plane that has landed. The important question would be whether the plane could take off again. An interdune area could be a safe landing location for a plane, or more likely a safe crash landing location.

Which desert do you mean?
Where on the map?

 

[Amp34]

Why does it have to be only on those red lines though? If the tracking system was disabled, the thing could literally be anywhere...

It's the immarsat "pings". The last ping (I assume) was calculated to have been sent a specific distance from the satellite. That gives a radius that can be use to plot a circle, which is what those lines are (with areas the plane wasn't and or couldn't get to with the fuel it had removed). Its not a tracking system, they just backed out the approximate distance from the satellite.

 

[Amp34]

Which desert do you mean?
Where on the map?

The taklamakan desert, discussed in more detail in post 1151. Just to the east of kashi on your map.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taklamakan_Desert

It's both within fuel range and on the line of the last ping sent to immarsat.

 

[Destination]

The taklamakan desert, discussed in more detail in post 1151. Just to the east of kashi on your map.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taklamakan_Desert

Interesting, so he flew past all of China's military radar without being spotted, then crashed?

 

[Amp34]

Plus surely it's too big and spread out for it to be a viable thing to do anyway?

Maybe the Chinese weren't normal citizens, maybe they were elite special forces mascarading as tourists and business people. The aim being to land, take over the base and then steal all the secret weaponry! It either happened successfully and no one wants to discuss it or the US shot the plane out of the air before it landed due to secret intelligence!

 

[Jokester]

That's what I'm trying to work out, no-one has come up with a good answer yet.

It's American and out of sight.

Conspiracy hat on, but what if there was something on that plane, or a person the American's really wanted. Would they could go as far as hijacking it and flying it somewhere where they would have plenty of time to then hide the plane in one of the big hangers there and "dispose" of any witnesses (onboard). Chinese were immediately ****ed with the Malaysian's it seems so maybe they were expecting something coming in.

 

[Pigeon_Killer]

Wasn't there talk of the plane climbing to 44,000 feet? Would oxygen masks be required at that height or could the oxygen have been turned off in the same way the transponders were to kill the passengers?

This appears to have been very carefully planned and they don't want any witnesses and they have a use for that plane.

 

[Amp34]

Interesting, so he flew past all of China's military radar without being spotted, then crashed?

Up until a few days ago I would have dismissed that too but considering it seems to have got past several countries military radar without being challenged I'm starting to wander maybe it's not so far fetched. also, less crash, more purposly land.

It's just an out there theory using the idea of an organised group hijacking the plane and flying it through distinct markers and avoiding military radar positions in other areas.

Alternatively we could go with some kind of well planned hijack where they completely forgot about the amount of fuel they had and crashed into the sea... Or more likely it was hijacked and someone forced the pilot to fly somewhere, not believing the argument the plane would crash, however how did they sus out both communication devices and stop the pilot broadcasting before they got into the cabin.

What would you suggest?

 

[Amp34]

It's American and out of sight.

Conspiracy hat on, but what if there was something on that plane, or a person the American's really wanted. Would they could go as far as hijacking it and flying it somewhere where they would have plenty of time to then hide the plane in one of the big hangers there and "dispose" of any witnesses (onboard). Chinese were immediately ****ed with the Malaysian's it seems so maybe they were expecting something coming in.

I dont even think the US could organise that without a leak. They would have to have some very "tough" personnel to cold bloodely kill dozens of innocent people, especially women and children. Not to mention the uproar of killing many of their allies citizens.

Besides extraordinary rendition is their preferred method.

Someone with more knowledge is probably the best to answer the 44,000 ft question but I'd assume pressure would still be fine in the cabin, it would most likely be to do with engine performance.

 

[Jokester]

I dont even think the US could organise that without a leak. They would have to have some very "tough" personnel to cold bloodely kill dozens of innocent people, especially women and children. Not to mention the uproar of killing many of their allies citizens.

Besides extraordinary rendition is their preferred method.

Someone with more knowledge is probably the best to answer the 44,000 ft question but I'd assume pressure would still be fine in the cabin, it would most likely be to do with engine performance.

The air pressure is maintained using compressors from air outside the plane, so it's entirely possible you could put everyone to sleep and subsequent coma and death by flying so high that the pressurisation system no longer could maintain a survivable atmosphere inside the plane. You would just need the pilot to have his own air supply. Whether 44,000ft would be high enough I wouldn't be convinced as it's not that much higher.

 

[Pigeon_Killer]

They would have to have some very "tough" personnel to cold bloodely kill dozens of innocent people, especially women and children.

They'd do that in a heartbeat to save one American let alone hundreds or thousands if they thought the person was a danger.

I think pilot suicide can be ruled out now. Why ply a plane for that long when you could've just ditched in the sea off Malaysia? The cargo and one, if not more, of the passenger will be key to this investigation now. Perhaps one of the Chinese passengers was an expert in weapons and he's defected or been taken hostage?

 

[Doohickey]

I still think the Americans know what happened to this plane, or at least know more than anyone else. All this 'new' information is coming from them, all of a sudden. They monitor everything. There is no way a 777 flies for so long past it's designated flight time, or so far off intended course, or certainly not over the airspace of various other countries, without being noticed. Military radar can pick up missiles being fired, of course they'll pick up a massive commercial airliner.

 

[Amp34]

The air pressure is maintained using compressors from air outside the plane, so it's entirely possible you could put everyone to sleep and subsequent coma and death by flying so high that the pressurisation system no longer could maintain a survivable atmosphere inside the plane. You would just need the pilot to have his own air supply. Whether 44,000ft would be high enough I wouldn't be convinced as it's not that much higher.

That's my feeling as well, it's only a few thousand feet above crushing altitude so I doubt the envelope is that fine.

They'd do that in a heartbeat to save one American let alone hundreds or thousands if they thought the person was a danger.

I think pilot suicide can be ruled out now. Why ply a plane for that long when you could've just ditched in the sea off Malaysia? The cargo and one, if not more, of the passenger will be key to this investigation now. Perhaps one of the Chinese passengers was an expert in weapons and he's defected or been taken hostage?

It wouldn't be the first time a hijack resulted in a crash landing due to fuel
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethiopian_Airlines_Flight_961

It does seem pretty slim that that is the case considering the planning that seems to have gone into this though.

 

[Westyfield2]

So today's news from what I've read:

Official Confirmed
01:07 Last routine engine data transmission
01:XX ACARS disabled
01:17 Sign off Subang Air Traffic Control for handover
01:21 Transponder disabled (near waypoint IGARI)
01:21 Malasian military radar picks up MH370 at waypoint IGARI
XX:XX MH370 moves towards waypoint VAMPI and then towards waypoint GIVAL
02:15 MH370 turns towards waypoint IGREX and is lost on Malasian military radar
<Time elapses>
08:11 Last ACARS routine handshake signal detected through the Inmarsat satellite network. That's quite a time gap and it could have flown miles!

Official Unconfirmed
The 08:11 satellite signal puts the aircraft somewhere between border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand.
The 08:11 satellite signal puts the aircraft somewhere between Indonesia and the southern Indian ocean.

Unofficial Unconfirmed
XX:XX New York Times reckons that whilst near waypoint IGARI the radar says it went up to 45,000 feet and then descended unevenly to 23,000 feet.

 

[Westyfield2]

Theory I've read which I'm leaning towards:

Pilot flying waits until flight is far enough from shore that mobile phones won't connect, and at a point where coms are switched between different Air Traffic Control centres. Pilot flying sends pilot not flying on an errand or otherwise gets him to leave the cockpit.

Once alone, locks door. Pulls Circuit Breakers and turns off Transponder. Turns off passenger's flight tracking ability. Possibly activates mobile phone signal jammer.

Descends to 29500 to avoid other aircraft on main airways. Puts on mask. Vents aircraft. Turns west, following suspected course avoiding most radar. Waits.

Once passenger oxygen supply has run out, waits a bit longer. Descends to low altitude below radar, and make turn toward final destination.

Land. Possibly on disused runway from Vietnam war, possibly even on road or beach. It doesn't need to be a perfect landing, as there's no intention of using aircraft again. Only needs to be good enough to walk away from.

Have accomplice waiting with another aircraft or boat. Unload valuable cargo onto boat. Sail away, never to be heard from again.

 

[dannyjo22]

The air pressure is maintained using compressors from air outside the plane, so it's entirely possible you could put everyone to sleep and subsequent coma and death by flying so high that the pressurisation system no longer could maintain a survivable atmosphere inside the plane. You would just need the pilot to have his own air supply. Whether 44,000ft would be high enough I wouldn't be convinced as it's not that much higher.

No.

Air is supplied to the air conditioning packs from the engine. You wouldn't need to climb. You could just turn off the packs or manually open the outflow valve and raise cabin altitude. Turning off the packs and opening the outflow valve would be fast. The cabin altitude would raise, the masks would drop and the passengers would get about 15 minutes air from the drop downs. (Those that bothered dropping). At a cabin altitude of less than 25,000 feet no one on that plane would be conscious.

Why would you even bother doing that, you are locked in no one can get to you if you are going to kill everyone on board you don't need to make them pass out and die. You just point it at the floor. The only person he would need to subdue would be the other pilot/s unless they planned it together.

 

[Pigeon_Killer]

If it flew along one of the main flight paths up around India wouldn't other planes have been able to see it with their radars?