Happy to be put in my place and I blame my imagination. But: The West at War with Russia.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Happy to be put in my place and I blame my imagination. But: The West at War with Russia.
i was laughing at the pr machine in full swing, the women who just happened to break in to tears of joy over crimea being brought back in to the fold.
as for what it could escalate in to what do you think will happen ?
its a bit late for the west and nato to actually do anything.
we will end up in a few years of weak sanctions and talks and then it will all be forgotten, unless putin makes a move for more land.
I don't think this is a likely scenario. If anything the west will stop before it reaches such a point. It will be sanctions, then more sanctions and even sanctions on sanctions. But not all out war.
You sound pretty confident. What about if Russia starts taking an economic hit, that doesnt alleviate because of relatively mild sanctions causing panic in the financial markets? What are Russias options then?
russia-sees-economy-tipping-into-crisis-as-western-sanctions-hit.html
It is not the EU and NATO that will start a war over Crimea in the Ukraine, its just too far away and pointless. But a Russia with a collpasing financial system might mean it needs to be more aggressive in its actions, to either show strength and determination and shore up confidence in it staying the path or to divert attention inside russia from a new economic downturn.
All very unlikely admittedly, but the dynamics of this thing are starting to get a bit mental. What is Putin going to do, give Crimea back to ukraine rather than push Russia through a very painful recession? That isnt Putin, he has always chosen the hard man path.
In this case sanctions can go both ways - Russia can economically hurt us as much as we them.
However as mentioned above sanctions need to be carefully managed. Hit a country too hard and they can lash out with huge support of their own population. Desperate people will turn to anyone who can offer them a way out of poverty that can come from such a thing (treaty of Versailles).
Lets hope that despite what is being published by the the European media, that as Putin said today, he does stop at the Crimea and the Int. Community just learn to accept it as probably the best 'worse way' for this region to become part of Russia again.
Lets hope that any other former Soviet Countries are bought back into Russia through democratic means which are not deemed illegal.
Lets hope that our own F@$#wit foreign policy makers learn from this and stop flirting with former Soviet countries without thinking about the consequences.
However as mentioned above sanctions need to be carefully managed. Hit a country too hard and they can lash out with huge support of their own population. Desperate people will turn to anyone who can offer them a way out of poverty that can come from such a thing (treaty of Versailles).
Lets hope that despite what is being published by the the European media, that as Putin said today, he does stop at the Crimea and the Int. Community just learn to accept it as probably the best 'worse way' for this region to become part of Russia again.
Lets hope that any other former Soviet Countries are bought back into Russia through democratic means which are not deemed illegal.
Lets hope that our own F@$#wit foreign policy makers learn from this and stop flirting with former Soviet countries without thinking about the consequences.
Putin quite clearly sees the West as a de-clawed tiger though, Russia effectively got away with Georgia a few years back and gained 2 areas of what were Georgia. He's getting the same here, and what is the response? Some laughable sanctions on individuals who in the main will be completely unaffected, suspension of military co-operation between UK and Russia (I'm sure Putin is crying himself to sleep over that one) and the threat of more possible sanctions, which will more than likely be as weak as the current ones.
If he can get away with Crimea and Georgia, what next? He clearly doesn't think there will be any repercussion of note, otherwise they wouldn't have taken the action they have done in Crimea.
Where will he draw the line? They may well do nothing now, or next year. But a couple of years down the line, maybe they come back to try and carve out some of Eastern Ukraine. Maybe parts of Belarus, Latvia, Estonia and Finland look tasty. Doubt he'd go near Mongolia or Kazakhstan as that might be a bit close to China who likely would do more than slap some useless sanctions on them.
If he can get away with Crimea and Georgia, what next? He clearly doesn't think there will be any repercussion of note, otherwise they wouldn't have taken the action they have done in Crimea.
Where will he draw the line? They may well do nothing now, or next year. But a couple of years down the line, maybe they come back to try and carve out some of Eastern Ukraine. Maybe parts of Belarus, Latvia, Estonia and Finland look tasty. Doubt he'd go near Mongolia or Kazakhstan as that might be a bit close to China who likely would do more than slap some useless sanctions on them.
Their wont be war, but an Economic one, Russia doest have the great an Economy when you strip the Gas away, they have to import most foods as well.
Putin has put himself in a dangerous position with this and private ideals.
Money will do the talking.
Putin has put himself in a dangerous position with this and private ideals.
Money will do the talking.
No, it can't. Russia can do a solid bit of damage to the German economy but only by tanking it's own. Russia is a minor trading partner for each of the Western allies while the Western allies collectively compose the majority of Russia's markets. The total damage of sanctions might be symmetric but it's distributed on the West's side and concentrated on Russia's. Moreover, the stolen wealth of the Russian oligarchs is thoroughly exposed to individual sanctions and if Putin loses the support of the oligarchs he's a cooked goose.
I agree with your post but just have to point out that Belarus is already under Russian control - I think Kazakhstan is also in Moscow's "sphere of influence". Latvia and Estonia are NATO members now so are immune (at least I bloody hope so!). The one you missed was Moldova, there's already a semi-autonomous region of ethnic Russians there, however as it doesn't border Russia (it borders Ukraine mostly) I'm not sure what Russia can realistically do there.
Soldato
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No doubt these aren't Russian forces but pro-Russian Crimean militia of course...
/Jedi "These are not the droids you looking for"
I think now that he has got it, he is like gtfo.
But holy hell; they do not muck around.
Russia could do far more damage to western economies than we could to them. RUssia is one of hte largest providers of natural Gas to western Europe, they could have most of the EU in darkness overnight if they really wanted to. So any punitive actions that the west take will always be done with kidd gloves as every western leader knows whats good for them and currently Russian gas is where its at.
The cost of finding an alternative suplly or paying to have ti shipped over from the US for example would deal a massive economic blow to the EU as this would see a massive increase in the wholesale price which would be handed over to the customers by ramping up their bills.
Putin might be a raging lunatic, but he knows where its at and is currently afforded a lot of protection form anything to "destructive" from the west with reagrds to sanctions because he really does hold all the Aces in this particular game.
The cost of finding an alternative suplly or paying to have ti shipped over from the US for example would deal a massive economic blow to the EU as this would see a massive increase in the wholesale price which would be handed over to the customers by ramping up their bills.
Putin might be a raging lunatic, but he knows where its at and is currently afforded a lot of protection form anything to "destructive" from the west with reagrds to sanctions because he really does hold all the Aces in this particular game.
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Shots fired, one dead and another injured.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4037018.ece
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4037018.ece
Putin is laughing because he knows the west will do nothing to stop him.
actually he could be putting himself in a very cleaver position. there's a lot of nationalism in Russia atm, so if the west starts putting in sanctions that affect the regular person in the street, less food etc. the population will not get angry at Putin but the west and the rest of the world and will be willing to give him more powers and more leeway to take on other states militarily to secure the resources they need.
now of courser the west won't do a damn thing military intervention wise so he has a clear path to do it.
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